Wednesday, 5 June 2013

Middle East powder keg

France says tests confirm sarin used in Syria

The French government says tests show the nerve gas sarin has been used several times during the two-year civil war in Syria.


5 June, 2013

France's foreign minister Laurent Fabius said laboratory tests in Paris confirmed usage of the nerve agent, but did not specify where, when or by whom the it was deployed.

The White House said more proof was needed, the BBC reports.

A UN report accuses both sides of abuses, and said it was likely nerve gas had been used.

Earlier, a United Nations report said there were reasonable grounds for believing chemical weapons had been used by both sides.

In its report, the UN commission of inquiry on Syria said the country's civil war has reached new levels of brutality and war crimes and crimes against humanity have become a daily reality.

The commission has so far been barred from Syria and was forced to rely on first-hand accounts from the country.

The report accuses both sides of abuses, but says rebel actions have not reached the intensity and scale of abuses committed by government-allied forces.

It said children have been taken hostage, forced to watch torture and even take part in beheadings, and others have been killed while fighting.



Hezbollah Is Launching An Offensive That Will Profoundly Change The Syrian War
Thousands of Lebanese Hezbollah militants are amassing around the northern Syrian city of Aleppo in preparation for an assault on the city,



4 June 2013



Loveday Morris of The Washington Post reports.The deployment demonstrates the group’s complete commitment to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and may profoundly affect the 26-month conflict.

The Aleppo battle has started on a very small scale; we’ve only just entered the game,” a senior Hezbollah commander told The Post. “We are going to go after strongholds where they think they are safe. They are going to fall like dominoes.”

The commander had been overseeing five units in Qusair, a town near the Syria-Lebanon on border where Hezbollah has been spearheading a regime offensive to retake the town for the last three weeks.

The increased presence of the militant group, in addition to the arrival of sophisticated military technology such as Iranian surveillance drones and Russian anti-mortar systems, has helped solidify recent gains made by forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Hezbollah’s preparations to attack Aleppo, which is nowhere near the Lebanon-Syria border, significantly raises the stakes in the war.

A deployment so deep into Syria and in such a crucial place would be a clear indication that Hezbollah’s role in Syria was never limited to defensive aims but is geared toward helping Assad score major victories,” Emile Hokayem, a Middle East-based analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the Post.

Aleppo is the Syria’s largest city and served as the country’s commercial hub before the war.

David Barrett of The Telegraph reports that the metropolitan population, about three million before the war, has grown to about 3.5 million since the opposition seized half the city last July.

Rebels, primarily al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra, have been administering city services in areas under their control while a stalemate persists.

The guerrilla fighters of Hezbollah are training and advising the growing irregular militias being deployed by Assad.

At least 50,000 militiamen — known as Jaysh al-Sha’bia i.e. “People’s Army” — are now fighting for Assad, and Iran aims to increase the force to 100,000 by sending fighters to a secret base in Iran for guerrilla combat training.

Last week Jeffrey White, a defence fellow at The Washington Institute, wrote that “Hezbollah’s all-in commitment is perhaps the single most important development of the war thus far and will profoundly affect its course.”

Israel, which has bombed Syria three times this year amid suspicions of weapons transfers to Hezbollah, is surely watching the developments closely.
One unintended consequence of the Shia group’s increased presence inside Syria is an unprecedented galvanization of the fractured opposition.


Hizbollah's involvement in Syria is like a needle. When injected, it hurts but stimulates. Syrian rebels never worked together as are now.
15 RETWEETS 13 FAVORITES


To rebels, whatever unity have achieved in Qusayr so far , is remarkable , for a spontaneous insurgency.All we pray is keep it like this
6 RETWEETS 2 FAVORITES

Another immediate implication is increased sectarian tensions in Lebanon, where Hezbollah one of two major political parties.

The presence of Hezbollah units around Aleppo will only deepen the divide in Lebanon and confirm, in the eyes of its rivals, Hezbollah’s complete alignment with Assad,” Hokayem told the Post, adding that it’s now plausible that Hezbollah is and will be utilized anywhere in the country.

Right on cue, a security source told al-Arabiya that one person was killed and 21 wounded in Lebanon’s second city of Tripoli on Sunday night when pro- and anti-Assad Alawite and Sunni residents clashed.





This article does make one fair point - that Syria armed itself with chemical weapons under Bashar's father as a defence against Israel

Syria's chemical weapons program was built to counter Israel



4 June, 2013


Syria, defeated by Israel in three wars and afraid its arch enemy had gained a nuclear arsenal, began in earnest to build a covert chemical weapons program three decades ago, aided by its neighbors, allies and European chemical wholesalers.

Damascus lacked the technology and scientific capacity to set up a program on its own, but with backing from foreign allies it amassed what is believed to be one of the deadliest stockpiles of nerve agent in the world, Western military experts said.


"Syria was quite heavily reliant on outside help at the outset of its chemical weapons program, but the understanding now is that they have a domestic chemical weapons production capability," said Amy Smithson of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Washington, an expert on nuclear, biological and chemical weapons.


As Syria's civil war enters its third year with 80,000 dead, chemical weapons are reported to have been used by the government of President Bashar al-Assad, and there are also fears they could fall into the hands of militants seeking to destabilize the region.


As a result of the wars of 1967, 1973 and 1982, Syria sought to counter Israel's military superiority.


Non-conventional weapons have already been used in the region. The late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein used chemical weapons such as mustard gas and other nerve agents during the 1980s, including the killing of 5,000 Kurds in 
Halabja, during the war with Iran.


Syria's ally Iran is accused by the West of seeking to develop an atomic bomb, which it denies, while Israel refuses to confirm or deny whether it has nuclear weapons.


"Syria had to have something to stack up against Israel," Smithson told Reuters.
United Nations human rights investigators said on Tuesday they had "reasonable grounds" to believe that limited amounts of chemical weapons had been used in Syria. They had received allegations that government forces and rebels had used the banned weapons, but most testimony related to their use by the government.


Syria is one of only seven countries not to have joined the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention, which commits members to completely destroying their stockpiles.


Syria does not generally comment on its chemical weapons, but in July last year it acknowledged for the first time that it had them. Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi told a news conference the army would not use chemical weapons to crush the rebels but could use them against foreign forces.


LOSING CONTROL

While it is relatively easy to produce small amounts of chemicals, scaling up to megaton quantities of precursors needed for weapons of mass destruction requires long-term, industrial-grade processing facilities with advanced equipment.


The first technology and delivery systems were most probably obtained from the Soviet Union and pre-revolution Egypt, military experts believe, while chemical precursors came from European companies.


To boost its own capabilities, Damascus set up the Scientific Studies and Research Centre (SSRC), an agency with a civilian figure head that was run by military intelligence.


It is "the best-equipped research center in Syria, possessing better technical capacity and equipment than the four Syrian universities," the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a leading non-proliferation group, wrote last month.


The SSRC, attacked by rebels earlier this year, oversees chemical weapons facilities in Dumayr, Khan Abou, Shamat, and Firaqlus, according to the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies. It set up facilities for blister agent, sarin, mustard and VX nerve gas, the Center said.


The agency is now headed by one of Assad's top advisers, national security chief Ali Mamlouk, said Brigadier General Mustafa al Sheikh, a Syrian army defector.


"The man overseeing the chemical weapons in general is Ali Mamlouk, but effective control of the weapons is becoming fragmented," Sheikh, who served for almost two decades in chemical weapons units, told Reuters from an undisclosed location in northern Syria. "Assad himself has lost overall command and control."


Mamlouk, on a list of Syrians targeted by EU sanctions since 2011, was promoted last year to head national security after its chief was killed in a bombing in Damascus. Considered to be a member of Assad's inner circle, Mamlouk is one of two Syrian officers indicted last August in Beirut for allegedly plotting to incite sectarian violence in Lebanon. Efforts to reach Mamlouk for comment were unsuccessful.


Sheikh said the arsenal is now in the hands of chemical weapons-trained loyalists of Assad's Alawite clan, a Shi'ite offshoot sect, and is being used for limited attacks that have killed dozens of rebels.


"Most of the chemical weapons have been transported to Alawite areas in Latakia and near the coast, where the regime has the capability to fire them using fairly accurate medium range surface-to-surface missiles," Sheikh said.
Some chemical munitions remain in bases around Damascus, and have been deployed with artillery shells. "It is a matter of time before fairly large warheads are used," he said.


A U.S. official, asked about Sheikh's comments, told Reuters: "This is one concerning scenario we're taking a close look at."


Reports of use of chemical weapons in the battlefield have become more frequent in recent weeks. A U.N. team of inspectors has been denied access and has been unable to verify the claims.


ILLEGAL SUPPLIERS


The bulk of chemical and biological weapons production technology came from "large chemical brokerage houses in Holland, Switzerland, France, Austria and Germany," said Globalsecurity, a security information provider.


In the early 1980s, Syria mostly imported French pharmaceuticals, some of them so-called "dual use" chemicals, which could also be used for chemical weapons, it said.


A wide range of industrial chemicals with legal applications, such as in agriculture, are also precursors for chemical weapons. The most important precursors for sarin, the nerve agent believed to have been used in recent fighting in Syria, are methylphosphonyl difluoride and isopropanol.


None of the reports cited named specific companies as suppliers. Syria has said it intended to use the chemicals for agriculture.


Securing raw chemicals on the international market became more difficult in 1985, when suspect sales were restricted by the Australia Group, a 40-nation body that seeks to curb chemical or biological weapons through export controls.


Some experts say Damascus obtained supplies from Russia and Iran instead, but Syria may also have turned to a network of illegal traders using front companies to sell to Iran and Iraq.


Former Russian general Anatoly Kuntsevich was suspected of smuggling precursor chemicals to VX gas to Syria, according to Globalsecurity. He died in 2002.


While questions remain about the origins of Syria's chemical weapons stockpile, an evaluation by the U.S. government in March leaves little doubt about the threat it poses.


"Syria's overall chemical weapons program is large, complex, and geographically dispersed, with sites for storage, production, and preparation," the Director of National Intelligence wrote.


It "has the potential to inflict mass casualties, and we assess that an increasingly beleaguered regime, having found its escalation of violence through conventional means inadequate, might be prepared to use chemical weapons against the Syrian people."




North Korea sends officers to aid Assad?
Opposition reports claim that North Korean officers are being sent to Aleppo to aid Bashar al-Assad


3 June, 2013

In another bizarre twist to Syria's tragic civil war, opposition forces are now claiming that officers from the North Korean army are aiding the fight against the rebels in an effort to bolster Bashar al-Assad.

According to a "Syrian human rights center", a few of Assad's civilian militia fighters revealed the presence of the North Korean officers in the war zones.

The Syrian regime has long-claimed that among the rebels fighting it across the country there are many fighters from overseas, sent by "Syria's enemies" such as Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United States of America.

But Assad also no longer denies the use of foreign fighters himself, with the recent revelation that Lebanese, Hezbollah forces and even Iranian forces are assisting Assad. It has also been reported that Russian arms are being used by Syria's regime, with Putin's government apparently keen to supply more.

The North Korean twist however lends a new element to the conflict, further entrenching the Western allies of the US, Europe, Israel and Great Britain against the so-called 'axis of evil' in Iran, Syria and North Korea assisted by Russia.

Director of a Syrian human rights center, Rami Abed A-Rachman, said that the number of North Korean officers in Syria is unknown, although there are definitely between 11 and 15 Arabic speaking North Korean officers in Aleppo.

A-Rachman, whose organisation releases daily reports on the fighting in Syria since the civil war broke out more than two years ago, said that "the North Korean officers are spread throughout many fronts, including the Syrian Defense Ministry factories southeast of Aleppo and in the regime's forces centers in Aleppo." He claimed that they do not take part in the actual fighting, yet provide the Assad army with logistic support and construct operational plans. "They also supervise the regime's artillery in the region," he said.

North Korea is widely believed to have assisted Syria in developing a now destroyed nuclear reactor in 2007.

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