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The New Great Game Round Up- June 9, 2013
9
June, 2013
Russia’s Three Main Security Challenges, Azerbaijan and the Real Axis of Evil, Southern Gas Corridor: Russian Nightmare? & More!
The
Great Game Round-Up brings you the latest newsworthy developments
regarding Central Asia and the Caucasus region. We document the
struggle for influence, power, hegemony and profits in Central Asia
and the Caucasus region between a U.S.-dominated NATO, its GCC
proxies, Russia, China and other regional players
Kazakhstan’s
appeal to suspicious players was already mentioned last
week and
this trend is continuing:
The
Central Asian country has learned to use its strategic location as
leverage and to play both ends against the middle in order to make
a profit.
But
cooperation with the NATOGCC corporation involves certain dangers
[emphasis mine]:
The
Kazakhstan National Security Commission’s chairman stressed that
the young people got to the militant camps under different reasons.
“We know them by names thanks to the joint work primarily with our
Russian colleagues,” Abykayev said. The young people
from Kazakhstan who are now in Waziristan were recruited by Caucasian
militants who came to Kazakhstan, he said. 4 of the
Kazakhstan citizens has recently returned from Afghan-Pakistan zone,
Abykayev said. According to Abykayev there are several
militants from Kazakhstan in Syria. He believes that
international cooperation of the law-enforcement authorities and
special forces is important for tracking the militants’ crossing of
the borders. According to him, a system of information exchange of
the related mattes has been established, namely with Russia. …
Abykayev
mentioned necessary measures to contain the threat of Kazakh
terrorists. It would be interesting to get his opinion on
Kazakhstan’s recent agreement with the country which serves as hub
for US-NATO-Chechen
terrorismin
the Caucasus and is channeling Central
Asian terrorists into Syria:
Southern
Gas Corridor: Russian Nightmare?
Turkey
is currently also engaged in business with Turkmenistan:
Turkmenistan
is buying eight new well armed naval vessels from Turkey, marking a
substantial increase in capability for the country’s nascent navy.
…
And
Ankara was not entirely selfless when it offered to facilitate the
delivery of Turkmen gas to Europe, which Turkmenistanconsiders to
be one of its top priorities:
Turkey is
ready to deliver Turkmenistan’s natural
gas to
consumers in Europe, Turkish President Abdullah Gul said on Thursday,
supporting the Central Asian nation’s plans to build alternative
pipelines and ease dependence on exports toRussia.
Senior
Turkish officials had said earlier Turkmenistan would be welcome to
link to the $8-billion Trans-Anatolian natural gas pipeline (TANAP).
…
The
U.S. State Department is ecstatic about
the possible realization of the Southern Gas Corridor. By the end of
this month the Shah Deniz consortium isexpected to
decide if Nabucco West or the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) will
deliver Caspian gas from Azerbaijan’s largest gas field to Europe.
The selected pipeline is supposed to
be the “European leg of a grand pipeline project known as the
Southern Gas Corridor”:
This
attitude could be a boost for projects like White
Stream,
the long-running attempt to build a subsea pipeline across the Black
Sea from Georgia to Romania. Giorgi Vashakmadze, Director of
Corporate Strategy, put forward a slightly different vision of the
project than heard before (with a new website to boot), which
appeared to link it directly with a Trans-Caspian Pipeline.
Conceivably
this could create two branches of the Southern Corridor; one from
Azerbaijan across Turkey and into central or southern Europe, one
from Turkmenistan across the Caspian, into Georgia and across the
Black Sea into eastern Europe. This would make commercial sense, in
the long term.
…
Turkmenistan
and Azerbaijan are now frequently discussing the
construction of the Trans-Caspian pipeline. But this pipeline project
faces one major
obstacle and
Turkmen officials are well aware of this fact [emphasis mine]:
On
a Trans-Caspian Pipeline to Azerbaijan, he dodged the
question of Russian opposition and said simply that Turkmenistan
regularly negotiates with their Azerbaijan counterparts on the
issue. From his speech it seems that things will become
clearer once the East-West pipeline, taking gas from the giant
Galkynysh field to the Caspian coast, is operational by 2015. And
according to European Commission policy adviser Brendan Devlin, the
EU is planning to present a full development concept on the pipeline
to Ashgabat by the end of the year.
…
As
a consequence of increased competition, Gazprom announced a
few days ago that it will cut prices for European buyers this year,
which prompted Turkey todemand the
same discount. Moscow is not interested in further competition and a
pipeline directly threatening Gazprom’s South Stream triggered
Russia’s state-controlled energy group to threaten war
with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. If Baku and Ashgabat continue to
push this project forward, Turkmenistan will probably need its new
naval vessels from Turkey:
Russian
warships of the Caspian Flotilla have been training defense maneuvers
and deployment of artillery at the coast of Dagestan, Interfax
reports.
…
Russia
has deployed an advanced new missile system to its base in
Armenia,amid deteriorating relations with Armenia’s rival,
Azerbaijan. A source in Armenia’s Defense Ministry confirmed to
RFE/RL’s Armenian service the deployment of “several”
Iskander-M systems.
…
Russia’s
Three Main Security Challenges
Last
week’s round-up dealt
among others with Kyrgyzstan’s importance in the Russian War on
Drugs and President Putin emphasized this
again after he welcomed 120 top anti-drug officials from around
the world at the International Drug Enforcement Conference
in Moscow [emphasis mine]:
Illicit
drugs have become a top security threat to Russia and a
negative influence on the already dire demographic
situation. Russia’s Security Council lists illegal drugs as
one of the three main security challenges facing the nation,
alongside terrorism and illegal immigration.
In one
recent international effort, a senior Tajik drug dealer who
controlled a heroin-smuggling route to Russia was detained
in Dubai in December 2012 by a coalition consisting
of Russia’s Federal Drug Control Service, Interpol, the U.S.
DEA, and law enforcement agencies from Kazakhstan, Belarus
and the United Arab Emirates.
…
Moscow
is leading efforts in the fight against illegal immigration which is
also considered to be one of the main security challenges:
Makhachkala,
the capital city of Russia’s Republic of Dagestan, made the most
interesting headlines this week when its powerful mayor Said Amirov
was arrested [emphasis mine]:
Izvestia
cited sources in the presidential administration as saying
the arrest was sanctioned from the very top due to almost
daily deadly explosions in the republic.
In another
sign of tightening security in the region,
President Vladimir
Putin fired
Zhaudat Akhmetkhanov from the post of interior minister
of the republic of Karachayevo-Cherkessia, the Kremlin’s
official website said Monday.
Analysts
have noted that Amirov’s detention fits into the ongoing
transformation of the Kremlin’s internal policy.
“In
my view, this is another sign that the Kremlin is tightening
the screws across all of Russia. Physical force instead
of ’soft power’ is being used against the insurgents
in the North Caucasus, or anybody connected with them. This is
the so-called scorched earth policy, which does not need people
who can build bridges between the warring sides,” Shvedov
said.\
…
But
there are questions if this new strategy will harm or benefit the
Salafi militants:
In other
words, Amirov’s arrest marks a radical shift in the model
of governance for Dagestan. Moscow concluded that
the lawlessness of local Dagestani elites was the main
cause of instability and the growing support for the
Salafi, and that the only solution would be to put
the local elites under direct control not even of the
Kremlin, but of Lubyanka.
If
the siloviki are calling the shots in Dagestan
directly from the Lubyanka, it will mark a turning point
in Moscow’s policy for the North Caucasus and will
serve as a serious warning to neighboring Chechnya. But
this approach will probably be no more successful than the previous
model in which Amirov, who was once honored as Russia’s best
mayor, lobbied on behalf of United Russia in calling
everyone to vote for Putin.
In that
case, the Salafis will emerge as the biggest beneficiaries
of Amirov’s arrest. After all, in a republic where
everything is decided by money, guns and high-stakes risks,
the Salafis are the only force growing stronger every year
that Moscow has been unable to control.
…
While
the FSB joined forces with the FBI in urging to
tackle terrorist threats on the internet, the Russian security
service is also busy preventing attacks by U.S.-sponsored terror
organizations [emphasis mine]:
Russia’s
FSB secret service has captured the suspected mastermind behind a
foiled terror attack in Moscow. His group, which fought in
Afghanistan against the ISAF forces, was uncovered and neutralized
last month by police.
The
cell was sent to Moscow by the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, also
known as the Turkistan Islamic Party, a terrorist organization that
seeks to establish an Islamic state inside the Chinese border
province of Xinjiang. The organization has carried
out attacks against US-related targets, and others.
…
For
more information about the struggle for Xinjiang and East Turkestan I
encourage you to read a previous post discussing China’s
Central Asia Problem.
Meanwhile
the War on Terror in the North Caucasus continues:
Suleiman
Osman Uheida, also known as Abu Khalid, was found guilty on June 2 of
organizing an Islamic armed group and of illegal possessing a weapon.
The
investigators said that, in 2011, Umarov appointed Uheida the leader
(Qadiy) of the Shari’a court of Imarat Kavkaz. (The Caucasus
Emirate).
…
Georgia-NATO
Partnership Under Pressure
Due
to territorial disputes, there is always potential for conflict in
the Caucasus region. Lately, Moscow and Tbilisi argued about
Georgia’s breakaway province of South Ossetia and this immediately
brought NATO into the arena:
Rasmussen
reiterated the alliance’s support for Georgia’s territorial
integrity and sovereignty within its internationally recognized
borders. He also pledged that Georgia would one day become a NATO
member.
…
Dmitry
Medvedev was recently asked about a possible NATO entry of Sweden and
Finland. The Russian Prime Minister was probably also thinking about
Georgia when he gave the following answer:
“This
is their own business; they are making decisions in accordance with
the national sovereignty doctrine. But we have to consider the fact
that for us the NATO bloc is not simply some estranged organisation,
but a structure with military potential,” the head of the Russian
government said adding that under certain unfavorable scenarios this
potential could be used against Russia.
“All
new members of the North Atlantic alliance that appear in proximity
of our state eventually do change the parity of the military force.
And we have to react to this,” the top official noted.
…
This
week Georgia suffered its
largest troop loss in Afghanistan and the NATO-Georgia partnership is
facing some challenges:
The
June 6 appearance of a questionable YouTube video,
in which supposed Taliban fighters declare jihad on Georgia, has
added to that debate.
A
close inspection of the video, which was posted from Georgia, has
raised suspicions of a domestic job or even of Russian intelligence,
but the video’s timing has contributed to the unease.
…
The
loss of more Georgian soldiers in the ISAF misson prompted anti-NATO
rallies in Batumi. But this will neither affect Georgia’s
participation in Afghanistan nor change the government’s
determination to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Furthermore,
Tbilisi is expanding its cooperation with Baku in the military
sector:
Georgia
and Azerbaijan have been publicly cooperating a lot lately,
withpresidential
meetings and
news of co-producing military
jets and armored
personnel carriers.
That military cooperation, in particular, is projected to grow,
writes Azerbaijani analyst Zaur Shiriyev.
…
Azerbaijan
and the Real Axis of Evil
Baku
is also strengthening ties with three countries which were once
properly called an
“axis of evil” by the former commander of Iran’s Revolutionary
Guards:
“America,
Britain and the Zionist regime (Israel) are an axis of evil against
the Islamic world and the whole of humanity”
…
As
previously discussed,
Azerbaijan is essentially NATO’s base at Russian and Iranian
borders and its attractions for Washington are easily explained:
“They
number four: a supply corridor for NATO’s military campaign in
Afghanistan; a foothold for American interests in regional stability
(Iran is just next-door) and fighting terrorism; and, finally, oil
and gas for Europe.”
…
We
should know by now what “fighting terrorism” in this context
means [emphasis mine]:
According
to the report, most of the killed are Libyan (59 citizens). They are
followed by Saudi Arabia (44) and Tunisia (44), Jordan (32), Egypt
(27), Lebanon (22) and Russia (17). 5 out of
them are from Chechnya, 4 from Dagestan, 1 from Kabardino-Balkaria
and 7 from other regions. Rustam Gelayev, the son of
Chechen separatist field commander Ruslan Gelayev, is also among
them. He was allegedly killed in the fights against the government in
the grouping “Chechen Mujahideen in Syria” in August last
year. The citizens of Palestine, Kuwait,
Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Australia, Bahrain, Morocco, Algeria,
Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Ireland, Kosovo, Qatar,
Turkey, the United Kingdom, Uzbekistan and the United States are also
among mercenaries killed in Syria.
…
Predictably,
the Chechen freedom fighters aligned their activities with U.S.
foreign policy objectives and are fighting against the Syrian
government. Besides Turkey, Azerbaijan is the country where most of
these active Chechen terrorists can
be found.
With so much commitment for their joint operations and its
large gas resources, Baku is highly esteemed by the NATO countries
and its allies. Great Britain, which is the largest
investor in
Azerbaijan, is looking to establish a long-term
cooperation with
the country in the South Caucasus. The investments within all BP
projects in Azerbaijan amount to
$40 billion and more leading energy companies want to follow BP:
Speaking
at the Caspian Oil and Gas 2013 conference on June 6, SOCAR’s first
vice-president Khoshbakht Yusifzade said that companies such as Exxon
Mobil, Chevron, Total and Nobel Oil show interest in the country’s
shale oil.
…
In
addition to its abundant energy resources, Azerbaijan’s strategic
location is of particular interest to some countries. Tel Aviv and
Baku have developed a close cooperation and last year there was
even speculation about
Israel using Azeri air bases for an attack against Iran. Azerbaijan’s
Consul General in Los Angeles Aghayev and Foreign Minister
Mammadyarov attended this week events in the United States organized
by the American
Jewish Committee,
further illustrating the “special relations” between the two
countries [emphasis mine]:
Azerbaijan
and Israel enjoy special relations, Azerbaijan Consul General Nasimi
Aghayev said at the presentation dedicated to Azerbaijan organized on
June 5 by the Los Angeles representation of the American Jewish
Committee (AJC-LA), one of the most influential Jewish advocacy
organizations of the world.
Speaking
at the event, Executive Director of AJC-LA Rabbi Mark Diamond,
Chairman of its International Committee Gary Jacobs and AJC-LA
liaison for Azerbaijan Ali Ibrahimzade also noted the great
importance of Azerbaijan for Israel and U.S.
They
highlighted the fact that Jews have lived in Azerbaijan peacefully
and without any discrimination for many centuries. They also
noted the strong relationship existing between Azerbaijan and AJC.
…
Azerbaijan’s
Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov attended the opening of the AJC
Global Forum of the Jewish lobby in Washington, APA reports.
Foreign Minister informed the participants about Azerbaijan’s
decisive role as the provider of energy resources and the close
relations between Azerbaijan and Israel.
…
With
the reliable puppet leader Ilham Aliyev looking to start his third
term as president, Baku’s close cooperation with the real axis of
evil will continue:
A
constitutional amendment introduced in 2009 removed a two-term limit
for holding the presidency. Azerbaijan’s opposition and human
rights activists have accused Aliyev of nepotism, concentrating the
country’s wealth and resources in the hands of his family, and
systematically abusing of the citizens’ rights.
Christoph
Germann- BFP Contributing Author & Analyst
Christoph Germann is an independent analyst and researcher based in Germany, where he is currently studying political science. His work focuses on the New Great Game in Central Asia and the Caucasus region. You can visit his website here
Christoph Germann is an independent analyst and researcher based in Germany, where he is currently studying political science. His work focuses on the New Great Game in Central Asia and the Caucasus region. You can visit his website here
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