Posts
This
is an excellent analyis from a French academic if you want an
understanding of what is behind the chaos in France
France’s
Meltdown, Macron’s Disdain
The
“yellow jackets” [protestors] now have the support of 77% of the
French population. They are demanding Macron’s resignation and an
immediate change of government.
3
December, 2018
- "The French say, 'Mr. President, we cannot make ends meet,' and the President replies, 'we shall create a High Council [for the climate]'. Can you imagine the disconnect?" -- Laurence Saillet, spokesman for the center-right party, The Republicans, November 27, 2018
- The "yellow jackets" [protestors] now have the support of 77% of the French population. They are demanding Macron's resignation and an immediate change of government.
- The movement is now a revolt of millions of people who feel asphyxiated by "confiscatory" taxation, and who do not want to "pay indefinitely" for a government that seems "unable to limit spending". -- Jean-Yves Camus, political scientist.
- European elections are to be held this Spring, 2019. Polls show that the National Gathering will be in the lead, far ahead of La République En Marche! [The Republic on the Move!], the party created by Macron.
On
November 11th,
French President Emmanuel Macron commemorated the 100th anniversary
of the end of World War I by inviting seventy
heads of state to organize a costly, useless, grandiloquent "Forum
of Peace"
that did not lead to anything. He also invited US President Donald
Trump, and then chose to insult him. In a pompous speech, Macron --
knowing that a few days earlier, Donald Trump had defined himself as
a nationalist committed
to defending America -- invoked "patriotism";
then defined it, strangely, as "the exact opposite of
nationalism"; then called it "treason".
In
addition, shortly before the meeting, Macron had not only spoken of
the "urgency" of building a European
army;
he also placed the United States among the "enemies"
of Europe. This was not the first time Macron placed Europe above the
interests of his own country. It was, however, the first time he had
placed the United States on the list of enemies of Europe.
President
Trump apparently understood immediately that Macron's attitude was a
way to maintain his delusions of grandeur,as well as to try to derive
a domestic political advantage. Trump also apparently understood that
he could not just sit there and accept insults. In a series
of tweets,
Trump reminded the world that France had needed the help of the USA
to regain freedom during World Wars, that NATO was still protecting a
virtually defenseless Europe and that many European countries were
still not paying the amount promised for their own defense.
Trump added that
Macron had an extremely low approval rating (26%), was facing an
extremely high level of unemployment, and was probably trying to
divert attention from that.
Trump
was right. For months, the popularity of Macron has been in free
fall: he is now the most
unpopular French
President in modern history at this stage of his mandate. The French
population has turned away from him in droves.
Unemployment
in France is not only at an alarmingly high
level (9.1%);
it has been been alarmingly high for years. The number of people
in poverty is
also high (8.8 million people, 14.2% of the population).
Economic growth is
effectively non-existent (0.4% in the third quarter of 2018, up from
0.2% the previous three months). The median
income (20,520
euros, or $23,000, a year,) is unsustainably low. It indicates that
half the French live on less than 1710 euros ($1946) a month. Five
million people are surviving on
less than 855 euros ($ 973) a month.
When
Macron was elected in May 2017, he promised to liberate the economy;
however no significant measures, were taken. In spite of
some cosmetic
reforms–
such as limits on allowances for unfair dismissal or the slightly
increased possibility that small businesses could negotiate short
work contracts -- the French labor code, still one of the
most rigid in
the developed world, expertly blocks job creation. The tax burden
(more than 45% of
GDP) is the highest in the developed world. Even if some taxes were
abolished since Macron became President, many new
taxes were
created. Public expenditure still accounts for about 57% of
GDP (16% above the OECD countries average) and shows no signs of
waning.
Macron
also promised, when he was elected, to restore security. Lack
of security,
however, has been exploding; the number of violent assaults and rapes
has been steadily on the rise. No-go
zones are
as widespread as a year ago and fiercely out of control. The influx
of unvetted illegal immigrants into the country has sadly turned
entire neighborhoods into slums.
When
Minister of the Interior Gérard Collomb resigned in on October 3,
he spokeof
a "very degraded situation" and added that
in many areas "the law of the strongest -- drug-traffickers and
radical Islamists -- has taken the place of the Republic." He
was simply confirming the chilling assessments of "out of favor"
commentators such as Éric
Zemmour,
author of Le
Suicide Français,
and Georges
Bensoussan,
author of Une
France Soumise (A
Submissive France).
Riots are
frequent; they indicate the growing inability of the government to
maintain order. Public transport strikes, which took placeduring the
entire spring of 2018, were accompanied by demonstrations and an
enthusiastic looting of
banks and shops. France's victory at the soccer World Cup in July
was followed by
jubilation, which quickly gave way to violence by
groups who broke store windows and attacked the police.
Since
entering political life, Macron's remarks have not only revealed a
contempt for the French population, but also have multiplied. That
has not helped. As early as 2014, when Macron was Minister of the
Economy, he said that the women employees of a bankrupt company were
"illiterates";
in June 2017, just after becoming president, he distinguished between
"those who succeed and those who are nothing". More
recently, he told a
young man who spoke of his distress at trying to find a job, that he
only had to move and "cross the street". During a visit to
Denmark, he announced that
the French were "Gauls resistant to change".
In May, French
President Emmanuel Macron warned that in many suburbs, France has
"lost
the fight against drug trafficking". (Getty
Images)
|
One
of the few issues Macron did seem eager to work on was Islam. He
stressed several times his determination to establish an "Islam
of France".
What he failed to take into account werethe concerns ofthe rest of
the population about the rapid Islamization the country. In June 20,
2017, he said (not
quite accurately, for example here, here, here, here, here and here),
"No one can make believe that (Muslim) faith is not compatible
with the Republic". He also seems to have failed to take into
account the risks of Islamic terrorism, which he hardly ever calls by
its name. He seems to prefer using the word "terrorism",
without an adjective, and simply acknowledges that
"there is a radical reading of Islam, whose principles do not
respect religious slogans").
The
current Minister of the Interior, Christophe Castaner, whom Macron
appointed to replace Collomb,
dismissed the concerns raised by his predecessor, and described Islam
as "a religion of happiness and love, like the Catholic
religion".
Another
area in which Macron has acted relentlessly is the "fight about
climate change", in which his targeted enemy arecars. On
vehicles over four years old, mandatory technical
controls were
made more costly and failure to comply with them more punitive,
evidently in the hope that an increasing number of older cars could
be eliminated. Speed
limits on
most roads were lowered to 80 km/h (50 mph), speed
control radars multipled,
and tens of thousands of drivers' licenses were suspended.
Gas taxes rose
sharply (30 cents a gallon in one year). A gallon of unleaded gas in
France now costs more
than $7.
The
small minority of French people who still support Macron
are not affected by these measures. Surveys show that
they belong to the wealthy layers of society, that they live in
affluent neighborhoods, and almost never use personal vehicles. The
situation is painfully different for
most other individuals, especially the forgotten middle
class.
A
recent decision to
increase gas taxes was the final straw. It sparked instant anger.
A petition demanding
that the government roll back the tax increase received almost a
million signatures in two days. On social networks, people discussed
organizing demonstrations throughout the country and suggested
that the demonstrators wear the
yellow safety jackets that drivers are obliged to store in their cars
in case of roadside breakdowns. So, on November
17,
hundreds of thousands of protesters blocked large parts of the
country.
The
government ignored the protesters' demands. Instead, officials
repeated the many unproven imperatives
of "climate change" and the need to eliminate the
use of "fossil fuels" – but refused to
change course.
After
that, another national protest day was selected. On November
24,
the demonstrators organized a march on Paris. Many, it seems,
decided, despite a government ban, to head for the Champs
Elysées and
continue toward the presidential Elysée Palace.
Clashes took
place, barricades were erected and vehicles were torched. The police
responded harshly. They attacked non-violent
protesters and used thousands
of tear gas grenades and water cannons, which they had never done in
the past. Although many of the protestors were holding red
flags, indicating they
were from the political left, the newly appointed Minister of the
Interior Castaner saidthat
the violence had come from a fractious and seditious "far
right". One member of the government fueled the fire
by equating the
French "yellow vests" with the German "brown shirts"
of the 1930s. Macron declared that those who try to "intimidate
officials" should be "ashamed".
Finally,
on November 25, Macron ended up recognizing,
with visible reluctance, the suffering of the "working classes".
Two days later, Macron delivered a solemn speech, announcing that he
would create a
"high council for the climate", composed of ecologists and
professional politicians, and that his aim was to savethe
planet and avoid "the end of the world". He still did not
utter a single word about the economic grievances that had poured
forth during the previous ten days.
The
spokesman for the center-right party, The Republicans, Laurence
Saillet, remarked,
"The French say, 'Mr. President, we cannot make ends meet,' and
the President replies, 'we shall create a High Council [for the
climate]' Can you imagine the disconnect?".
Marine
Le Pen, president of the right-of-center National Rally (the former
National Front party, and today the main opposition party in
France), said,
"There is a tiny caste that works for itself and there is the
vast majority of French people who are abandoned by the government,
and feel downgraded, dispossessed ".
The
"yellow jackets" now have the support of
84% of the French population. They are demanding
Macron's resignation and
an immediate change of government. Those who speak on radio and
television say that
Macron and the government are hopelessly blind and deaf.
At
the moment, the "yellow jackets" have decided to organize a
third national protest – today, Saturday, December
1st --
with another march to Paris and the Elysée Palace. The revolt in the
country is intensifying and shows no sign of slowing down.
The
political scientist Jean-Yves Camus said that
the "yellow jackets" movement is now a revolt of millions
of people who feel asphyxiated by "confiscatory" taxation
and who do not want to "pay indefinitely" for a government
that seems "unable to limit spending". He added,
" Some do not measure the extent of the rejection that the
demonstrators express".
Dominique
Reynié, professor at the Paris Institute of Political
Studies, said that
"Macron and the government had not expected that their tax
policy would lead to this".
European
elections are to be held this May, 2019. Polls show
that Le Pen's National Rally party will be in the lead, far ahead of
the party created by Macron, La République En Marche! [The Republic
on the Move!].
In
a little more than a year, Macron, elected in May 2017, has lost
almost all credit and legitimacy. He is also one of the last European
leaders in power who supportsthe
European Union as it is.
Macron,
who claimed that
he would defeat the "populist" wave rising throughout the
continent, has also claimed that leaders who listened to people eager
to defend their way of life were "leprosy"
and "bad
winds".
The "populist"
wave is
now hitting France; it could well mean the end of Macron's term as
president.
Dr.
Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author
of 27 books on France and Europe.
Is
This Macron's "Let Them Eat Cake" Moment?
3
December, 2018
Never
underestimate French protests and never underestimate tax
protests. Still,
that seems what French President Emmanuel Macron has
been doing...
While
the so-called “yellow vests movement” has drawn a
few hundred thousand people to sometimes violent protests and
road blockades against high taxes on diesel, leading to two deaths
and more than 500 people injured, French President Macron
is travelling Europe, pontificating about things like an EU army. The
protests bear a resemblance to Brexit: ordinary people have had
enough, even if it isn't always clear of what and even if they have
been voting for the parties responsible for high taxation. However,
to dismiss their anger and to double down on policies to tax diesel,
as Macron seems to do, may be very risky.
Former
US President Ronald Reagan once described what, according
to him, was typically a government’s view of the economy: “If
it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops
moving, subsidize it.” With
diesel, the cycle started with subsidies. Between 1995 and 2015, the
share of diesel cars on European roads doubled to around 50 per cent.
Without government support for
diesel-fulled cars, which were thought to
emit less CO2 than their petrol counterparts, researchers
have concluded the
share would have remained constant around 25 per cent.
Now
that we’ve arrived in the taxation stage, which has pushed up
prices by 23
percent in
France over the last year, Macron is feeling the heat. Some
77 per cent of French people now support the yellow vests
movement, and the number is rising. Even
among Macron’s own voters, support stands at 41 percent. Some of
the leaders of former President Hollande’s party are also
on the street, despite being the ones who came up with some of the
taxes that are being contested. The centre-Right and hard-Left
opposition have also united against Macron to express support.
The French socialist
party has accused Macron’s
government of trying to link this grassroots movement to the far
right Marine Le Pen “to better disqualify it”. But
according to sociologist Vincent Tiberj, the yellow vests
movement derives largely
from the lower-middle classes, who earn enough to pay taxes but not
enough to live comfortably. A lot of the protesters come from
“La France profonde”: small towns and rural areas that have often
gone through dire economic times, far away from the world of Emmanuel
Macron, a former investment
banker.
Macron
himself has reacted by
saying his government intended to “tax fossil fuels more” as a
way to “support the poor”.Unfortunately
for him, it seems the poor are not so keen on the method. A poll
reveals that 82 per cent of French think the government
should simply scrap the increase in fuel taxes foreseen for January.
Macron’s popularity meanwhile continues to
tank, from a 29 per cent satisfaction rate in October to 25 per cent
just one month later. One
in three French do
not have
an alternative to driving to work and cars are essential not only for
economic but also for social reasons, preventing social isolation of
the more vulnerable. For many people, this is not something to mess
around with.
Is
this Macron’s “let them eat cake” moment? The
phrase, attributed to Marie Antoinette, the last Queen of France
before the French Revolution, was apparently uttered by her
after she learned that the people were suffering due to widespread
bread shortages. Suggesting that the ever
higher fuel
taxes are necessary for the environment may have the same effect on
many of the “yellow vests”.
Even
if these taxes are needed to save the environment, many may wonder
why then people were encouraged to buy diesel-fueled cars in the
first place. They
may also wonder why then only 184 million from the 3.9 billion euro
extra income from the so-called “domestic consumption tax on energy
products” raised this
year will be used to
finance the “energy transition” and why the rest will be used to
help cover France’s extensive budget deficit. That’s especially
the case as these taxes hit the
less well-off harder, due to the fact that they tend to use older
vehicles.
Of
course, if France weren’t the country currently leading the
global ranking of government spending to GDP, people may be more
relaxed about an extra 50 euro per month to fill up their tank to
save the environment. But France’s “tax freedom day”– when
people start working for themselves - only comes
on July 27. Then the French government
seems more
keen on
new taxes than on spending cuts. New
taxation initiatives meanwhile include tax hikes for health care
providers – a baffling 40%
for 2019 -, on garbage
collection and tourist
accommodation.
How
will this not hit ordinary people? If
a completely spontaneous yellow
vests movement can
already hit the revenues of big French supermarkets with
55 per cent in one day, one
should wonder what will happen if the protestors start organizing
themselves properly.
"We Want Trump!" French Citizens Reject Globalist Macron
This is not France,but Britain but the chant is unmistakeable.
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