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Warm
salty water from the Atlantic Ocean is increasingly invading the
Arctic Ocean.
It is 8 degrees Celsius at Svalbard
The average for November is minus 8 degrees Celsius
Sam
Carana, via Facebook
The
danger is that a strong influx of salty warm water into the Arctic
Ocean could trigger destabilization of hydrates in sediments,
resulting in massive eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the
Arctic Ocean, as described in earlier posts such as this one.
This
methane could cause temperatures to suddenly rise strongly at the
higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, speeding up decline of
sea ice and permafrost, and further deforming the jet stream.
This
could trigger even more extreme weather events, in particular storms,
flooding, heatwaves and fires, across the Northern Hemisphere that
could devastate crops, take down power grids and threaten meltdowns
of nuclear power plants.
Here's
some more background. On November 12, 2018, there was a sudden influx
of warm water from the Atlantic Ocean near Svalbard and sea surface
temperature was as high as 20.4°C or 68.7°F, i.e. 17.4°C or 31.4°F
warmer than in 1981-2011.
Salinity
levels at the surface of the Arctic Ocean are low, due to the
increasingly large run-off from rivers, glaciers, etc. Also, the
Arctic Ocean is increasingly receiving precipitation from the
Atlantic Ocean, due to stronger winds over the North Atlantic.
All
this contributes to the formation of a freshwater lid on top of the
surface of the Arctic Ocean, which has in turn helped to keep sea ice
extent larger than it would otherwise have been over the past few
years.
The
influx of water from the Atlantic Ocean has a much higher salinity
level. Ice will stay frozen and will not melt in freshwater until the
temperature reaches 0°C (or 32°F). Ice in saltwater on the other
hand will already have melted away at -2°C (or 28.4°F).
The
danger is that a strong influx of salty warm water will reach the
seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and trigger destabilization of hydrates
in sediments resulting in massive eruptions of methane from the
seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.
It is 8 degrees Celsius at Svalbard
The average for November is minus 8 degrees Celsius
Extreme warmth for Iceland and Greenland this weekend,
Nov 16-18th
An
extreme warmth will develop across the Arctic region this weekend, in
response to a very strong upper ridge and high pressure system.
Northern Atlantic, Iceland, Greenland, Faroe islands, Scandinavia and
Scotland will experience unsually warm weather for this time, with
daytime temperatures 10-15 °C above normal.
The
pattern evolving across Europe indicates an extremely strong upper
ridge centered over the Arctic region with several deep cyclones
located to its west over the northern Atlantic. Together with
powerful high pressure system across the northern Europe, this
results in a sharp presssure / temperature gradient right across
Iceland. A very strong southern jet stream will advect additional
warm airmass towards already very warm weather caused by significant
subsidence beneath the upper ridge. Mid-level temperatures will be
even higher than 16 °C above normal for mid November!
Detailed
6-hour sequence of temperatures across Iceland (maps provided by
www.vedur.is) revealing an extremely warm airmass for Iceland for mid
November. Temperatures could locally exceed 15 °C, especially in the
valleys and fjords across the northern and western parts where dry
Föehn winds will have the maximum results.
While
nothing unsual for Iceland regarding the wind threat, the significant
warming comes after cold and blowing snow days this week. Night from
Friday to Saturday will be very warm across the western half of
island, many areas should experience windy conditions and
temperatures above 10 °C.
Stay
tuned for nowcasting post when event occurs late tomorrow.
High methane levels
High methane levels
Temperatures
at the North Pole are 244K or minus 30 degrees Celsius.
The
warmth has to be coming from underneath
In Quebec we are getting temps far below normal 8-10 degrees below normal for all of October and now the same for November. We are in winter here before then middle of November. The climate has changed considerably since 2012 with below normal temps through most of the past 5 winters. And our atmosphere is so filled with humidity during the other seasons that its hard to understand that our atmosphere can even hold that much water vapor. Our climate is changing but no one in the media is even talking about it.
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