Hours before attack on Latakia Putin and Erdogan reach an agreement on Idlib

Putin & Erdogan agree Idlib buffer zone to avert new Syria crisis

RT,

17 September, 2018

Russia and Turkey have agreed a “demilitarized zone” between militants and government troops in Syria’s Idlib, President Vladimir Putin said after hours-long talks with Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan focused on solving the crisis.

“We’ve focused on the situation in the province of Idlib, considering presence of large militant groups and their infrastructure there,” Putin said at a press conference after the talks.

Erdogan meets Putin, and fate of Syria’s Idlib is at stake

“We’ve agreed to create a demilitarized zone between the government troops and militants before October 15. The zone will be 15-20km wide, with full withdrawal of hardline militants from there, including the Jabhat Al-Nusra.”

As part of solving the deadlock, all heavy weaponry, including tanks and artillery, will be withdrawn from the zone before October 10, Putin said. The zone will be patrolled by Turkish and Russian military units.

Before the end of the year, roads between Aleppo and Hama, and Aleppo and Latakia must be reopened for transit traffic, he said.

The agreement has received “general support” from the Syrian government, according to Putin.

The deal and other issues of Russian-Turkish ties apparently took almost 5 hours to hammer out. In what appears to a breakthrough solution, Putin and Erdogan have agreed to ensure peace with the help of Russian and Turkish troops.

“The territory controlled by the Syrian opposition must be demilitarized and the Syrian opposition that is holding these territories will remain there. But together with Russia we will make efforts to clear these territories of radical elements,”Erdogan said.

The agreement is designed to prevent a new “humanitarian crisis” in Syria, Erdogan stressed, and will help Turkey to avoid an even more “difficult situation.” He had previously warned of a surge in refugees hitting the country should a full-blown war break out in Idlib.

The plan is major landmark for Syria, where the standoff in the last militant stronghold of Idlib has threatened to turn into a major international crisis in recent weeks. The US and other NATO countries backing anti-government forces had repeatedly warned Russia and Syria not to launch any new offensive in the region. US President Donald Trump tweeted earlier this month that to do so would be a “grave humanitarian error,” while US envoy to the UN Nikki Haley outright said that any Russian attack on Idlib would provoke “dire” consequences.

About 70 percent of Idlib province is controlled by various terrorist factions, including Al Qaeda’s Syria affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly known as the Al-Nusra Front), according to the Russian military. At the same time, both Turkey and the West support various militant groups they consider as “moderate” opposition to Syrian President Bashar Assad’s forces.

This turned out to be a dilemma for Ankara, with Turkish president simultaneously worried about Russia and Syrian action weakening the rebel groups, but also having concerns over the spread of terrorists and the potential influx of new refugees into areas bordering Turkey.

Now it appears that despite the rocky last few years of Russian-Turkish relations, the mutual trust built up between Putin and Erdogan has allowed them to overcome a clash of interests and reach a compromise.

BREAKING: TURKEY EMBEDS INTO IDLIB, CEASEFIRE SECURED, INVITES RUSSIAN PEACEKEEPERS

Russ Fort,

17 September, 2018

Russian President Vladimir Putin has just publicly declared that Turkey and Russia have agreed to establish a demilitarized zone in Idlib which will have a depth of 15 km, to be ready and in place by October 15th. This is effectively a ceasefire, with Turkish forces and Russian military police that will conduct joint patrols towards the de-escalation in Idlib.

Russia’s Defence Minister Shoigu has just publicly stated: there will be no military operation in Idlib.

FRN previously raised the possibility of Turkey securing Idlib on its own, then working towards using this possibly to acquire territory or make a better deal with Russia. It appears the second has happened, as we forecasted. Our general operating thesis that ‘things are never as they appear’ was confirmed as well.

FRN cited that only China had stepped forward to save the Turkish economy, and that China would not move against the strategic interests of Russia and Iran at this time.

What happened:

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met behind closed doors in Sochi. Here they  apparently discussed the situation in Syria’s Idlib province, one of the remaining Al Qaeda strongholds, with significant backing by Turkey, known in the west as TFSA – Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army.

Then after the talks between Putin and Erdogan, Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu publicly announced that Russia would not in fact be conducting a military operation in Idlib. Shoigu said the following to reporters, holding  the memorandum on Idlib settlement signed by him and his Turkish counterpart, Hulusi Akar in his hands for the photo-op.

“In the next few hours we will coordinate all the issues set forth in this document with them [Damascus authorities],”

The high level meeting happens now about a week after the extremely important Russia-Turkey-Iran summit in Tehran, where the ceasefire guarantor states focused on the question of the Idlib de-escalation zone. It is also highly probable that if Turkey had been planning this with Russia from the start, which is likely enough, then the plan for Turkey to give an ‘anti-military action’ line at the UNSC meeting was staged. At the same time, there is nothing inconsistent with Turkey’s agreement in Tehran, the new announcement today, and the statements they made at the UNSC which appeared to support the US and go against Syria, Iran, and Russia. The parties from the start had been clear that they were searching for ways to minimize risks for the civilian population related to the counterterrorism operation.

What will happen next?

The US will certainly be displeased by this, and will now resort to last ditch efforts to use some sort of false flag operation with a splinter group working closer or more directly with the MI6 and CIA in Idlib, to carry out an attack on Russian forces nominally under the auspices of the ‘Syrian National Army’, the reformed TFSA which Turkey backs.

This will be similar to previous scenarios, and will be used to create the simulacrum of a breakdown of the Turkey-Russia deal, and somehow justify some ‘attack’ by the US under optimal conditions for the US.

Syria will likely only accept this as a temporary move. Turkey’s Al Qaeda/TFSA/SNA forces in Idlib will slowly be matriculated out of Idlib and into Turkey. Others will be left behind and there will be attempts to make an ‘SNA’ under Turkish authority, and Russian toleration. With the situation pacified and normalized, then a political, economic solution will be required for Syria to achieve this part of regaining their territorial integrity. Significantly, this will remove any pretext for FUKUS (France, UK, US) to act militarily under any pretext, as there will be no military action starting from the outside of the city, moving in. Rather, Russian forces will be invited in, and the Turkish military will slowly come to lead the SNA more overtly, with their adviser and regular soldiers integrated into the command, which in fact has been something of the case for some time.