An el-Nino seems to be certain by the end of the year

“It's been a few years since one reared its ugly head”

Why do they always have to LIE?!

El Niño likely setting up for a winter comeback

the Weather Network,

10 August, 2018

Friday, August 10, 2018, 5:03 PM - A winter return for El Niño? It's been a few years since one reared its ugly head, but from what forecasters are seeing in and above the Pacific Ocean, there's a good chance El Niño will be back for this coming winter.

Based on the latest update from forecasters with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, dated August 9, there is now at least a 60 per cent chance that El Niño conditions will develop in the equatorial Pacific during the autumn months (September through December), and over a 70 per cent chance they will develop by winter (November through February).

This graph shows the collected computer model runs - dynamical and statistical - for the upcoming three-month periods. Bold lines indicate the model run averages, and the forecaster consensus. Credit: IRI/CPC

Forecasts are issued on a monthly basis, so this may change - going weaker or stronger - so watch for any updates to come.

WHAT IS EL NIÑO?

El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is a regular climate pattern that develops along and above the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Normally, conditions in that part of the world see strong trade winds, blowing east to west, which push warm surface waters along with them, causing them to 'pile up' around Indonesia and northern Australia. Periodically, these trade winds weaken, and the whole system 'relaxes', allowing those warm waters to slosh back towards the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This arrival of warm waters off the coast of Ecuador and Peru typically happened in late December, and thus the pattern was named El Niño, or The Child, in reference to Christmas. 

This occurs roughly every three to five years, and individual El Niño events are separated by periods of normal (or 'neutral') conditions, or by cold La Niña patterns, which have a similar pattern to the normal conditions (warm in the western central Pacific and cool in the east), but ramped up to more of an extreme.

Typical ENSO-neutral (left) and El Niño (right) conditions over the Pacific Ocean. Credit: NOAA

When an El Niño develops, all that warm water sloshing back towards the east changes the weather patterns over wide regions of the planet. Typically, it means a warmer winter for parts of Canada, as the added heat shifts weather patterns over and around North America further north and east for the duration of the event.

The typical effects of an El Nino on wintertime across North America. Credit: Climate.gov

The effects of each El Niño are different, however, as stronger or weaker patterns have a greater or lesser impact on the weather, and other large climate patterns (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation) exert their own influences.

Sources: NOAA CPC | Columbia University Earth Institute

RELATED: NASA COMPARES THE 2015-16 EL NINO TO THE SUPER EL NINO OF 1997-98.