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Apart from some nonsense about an 'expansionist Russia' this is a good article. Robertscribbler should restrict himself to writing about what he knows best. "Contempt prior to investigation'
World Food Security Slides into Red Zone as FAO Index Jumps to 213
Climate-Change Induced Extreme Weather Ravages Croplands
Values above 210 are considered to result in enough stress to ignite conflict as an increasing number of regions begin to see scarcity from lack of ability to purchase or produce food. For the time being, these prices remain below the 2011 high water mark of 229 which was linked to a broad eruption of conflict and food riots from Libya to Egypt to Syria and throughout a smattering of other impoverished or vulnerable regions in Asia and around the globe.
World Food Security Slides into Red Zone as FAO Index Jumps to 213
Climate-Change Induced Extreme Weather Ravages Croplands
14
April, 2014
Feeling
impacts from a broad range of stresses including widespread heat and
drought from the US West, to South America, to Australia and
Southeast Asia, the ongoing Russian invasion and destabilization of
breadbasket Ukraine, and
the growing threat of a strong El Nino emerging in the Pacific,
world food prices made another significant jump during March of 2014.
According
to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global food index
prices surged from a value of 208 in February to 212.8 in March. The
4.8 point increase from February to March followed on the heels of a
5.5 point increase between January and February.
Values above 210 are considered to result in enough stress to ignite conflict as an increasing number of regions begin to see scarcity from lack of ability to purchase or produce food. For the time being, these prices remain below the 2011 high water mark of 229 which was linked to a broad eruption of conflict and food riots from Libya to Egypt to Syria and throughout a smattering of other impoverished or vulnerable regions in Asia and around the globe.
But
with the world climate situation worsening, with
chances for a strong El Nino emerging later this year increasing,
and with global conflict over dwindling and endangered stores of
food-related wealth and resources intensifying, there remains a
substantial risk that global food prices will continue to see strong
upward pressure throughout 2014, pushing and maintaining levels high
enough to continue to ignite instability, unrest and, in some cases,
open warfare.
(The
first episode of Showtime’s “Years of Living Dangerously”
provides a close look at two regions suffering directly from crop
losses, economic impacts and hunger due to extreme droughts related
to climate change — Syria and the US Southwest. It provides a view,
in close-up of what happens due to years-long droughts and related
food and resource shortages. In the US, loss of grazing land resulted
in the closing of meat packing plants supporting local workers and in
severe stress to communities even as religion and political beliefs
impeded an effective response to the rising crisis. In Syria, a ten
year drought spurred armed revolution against a government that
turned a blind eye to the needs of its suffering citizens.)
Global
Hot Spots
Western
US: March
saw a brief weakening of the, now 13 month long, blocking high
pressure system off the US west coast. This slight interlude
unleashed an extraordinary surge of Pacific Ocean moisture that set
off record floods and one-day rainfall events throughout Northern
California, Washington and Oregon. Pulses of moisture did briefly
touch the US Southwest, but the Jet Stream configuration had shifted
somewhat northward, resulting in less water relief for the most
drought stressed zones.
(The
April 8 US
Drought Monitor shows
drought continuing to intensify over the US despite some moisture
reaching affected areas.)
As
a result, the epic California drought is probably still the worst
seen in 500 years and is now likely to intensify and/or persist on
into late this fall. By
April 1, snow cover had fallen to 25% of a typical average for the
Sierra Nevada.
Combined drought and water shortages have led to an unprecedented
complete cut off of federal water supplies to many local farmers. In
addition, Silicon Valley, has been forced to ration its drinking
water supply.
Meanwhile,
sections of Texas have experienced their driest 42 month period since
record-keeping began in 1911.
Regions near Lubbock received only 33 inches of rainfall in the three
and a half year period since October of 2010. A normal rainfall for
this zone would be around 64 inches for the same time-frame. This
makes the current 4+ year Texas drought worse than any previous dry
time during the 20th Century, including the Dust Bowl period of the
1930s.
With
the emergence of spring, a typical post-winter dry period will likely
be enhanced by a continued formation of a powerful dome high pressure
system blocking moisture flow to California and the US Southwest. In
addition, amplified heat in the up-slope of a high amplitude Jet
Stream wave will likely drive drought conditions to rapidly worsen as
spring runs into summer. Sadly, the primary hope for moisture comes
from the emergence of El Nino, which is becoming more and more likely
for later this year. However, if the El Nino comes on as strong as
expected, rainfall events are likely to be extraordinarily intense,
ripping away top soil from the likely fire-damaged zones and making
it difficult for water planners to capture and store water due to its
velocity. In the worst case, Ark
Storm-like conditions could
emerge due to a massive heat and moisture dump that could result in
very intense rivers of moisture forming over western regions.
Brazil: Ever
since 2005, Brazil has been suffering from a series of persistent
drought episodes. By this year, the nine year long drought series
reached an ominous peak. Like California, this drought series is now
likely the worst seen in decades and possibly as far back as 500
years. The result was widespread fires and blackouts throughout
Brazil together with extreme impacts to farm production. Particularly
hard hit were coffee and sugar production, sending prices for both
markets rocketing to record or near-record levels.
(South
American rainfall anomalies from Jan 23 to February 24, 2014. Image
source: CPC
Unified.)
Indonesia
and Southeast Asia: From
Thailand to Malaysia to Indonesia, drought resulted in significant
reductions in palm oil production, a main crop for the region.
Throughout March and into April large fires were reported over a wide
drought-stricken zone even as smoke choked both cities and
countryside. Some of the fires were suspected to have been illegally
set by large palm oil conglomerates seeking to clear new land for an
ever-expanding set of palm oil plantations. But the plantations may
now be in danger of a drought fed by both their destructive practices
of land-clearing and by their overall contribution to an
extraordinary and excessive global greenhouse gas overburden.
(MODIS
shot of widespread fires near the Malacca Strait during March of
2014. Image source: LANCE-MODIS.)
Drought
related heat and fires not only threatened crops but also resulted in
multiple school closings, numerous dangerous air warnings, thousands
of calls reporting peat fires and, in Indonesia alone, more than
20,000 people hospitalized for respiratory problems.
The
Ukraine and Russia: An
ever-more expansionist Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine also
resulted in higher food prices as speculators purchased grain stores
over projections that Russian forces could disruption Urkaine’s
grain production and exports. First phase invasion into the Crimea
did not block key grain ports. But tens of thousands of troops massed
along the Ukraine border and likely continued incursions by Russian
special forces units into eastern Ukraine resulted in an ongoing
destabilization of one of the world’s key grain producers.
Meanwhile,
wildfire season began early in Siberian Russia perhaps presaging a
fire season that, when combined with the effects of an emerging El
Nino, could be the worst seen since 2010 when Russia cut off grain
exports to the rest of the world.
Global
Problem: Though
the above list provides examples of where global food supply is most
threatened by extreme weather related to climate change and/or a
related set of conflicts over resources, it is important to note that
the current food, resource, and climate crisis is now global in
nature. Droughts and severe weather have left almost no region
untouched and now result in substantial damage to crops at least once
a year in even the most tranquil locations. Instances of ongoing and
systemic drought are now common throughout various areas not
mentioned above including: Australia, China, South America, Central
America, The Middle East, Africa, India, and sections of Russia and
Europe. So though blows to important “bread baskets” provide the
most impact to overall food price and availability, a general state
of agricultural disruption due to increasingly extreme climates
blanketing the globe result in a far more challenging than usual
base-line for food producers and consumers everywhere.
Links:
Hat-tip
to Colorado Bob
Hat-tip
to Miep
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