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This was written by Sam Carana of the Arctic News blog back in 2007 - before the melting of the Arctic ice cap; before the onset of positive feedbacks; before COP15 fiasco in Copenhagen - and before the 2008 financial meltdown
Ten
Dangers of Global
By
Sam Carana
Abstract
Many
people wrongly believe that the only way they will be affected by
global warming, will be a tiny sea level rise over many decades. But
there are at least ten dangers of global warming. Events that to many
may seem to be unrelated, can combine to make things progressively
worse, with one danger feeding and reinforcing the next one.
Contents
Let's
have a look at the many concerns and dangers associated with global
warming and the resulting changes in climate around the world. I've
tentatively grouped them into ten points.
1.
Flooding.
We've
all seen the pictures of disappearing glaciers and the predictions of
rising sea levels. Most people live close to the sea, but many are in
denial about the impact of global warming. They falsely believe that
the only change that will affect them will be a tiny rise of sea
level over many decades. But without action on global warming,
weather events will become increasingly extreme.
And
without government action to move people to newly-built cities, they
will continue to live on land most prone to flooding and most exposed
to tsunamis, hurricanes, cyclones, tornadoes and thunderstorms,
until a disaster hits them like we've seen happen in
New Orleans.
The task ahead is many scales larger than the evacuation of New
Orleans, which after all occurred in the richest nation on earth
while all other infrastructure in the U.S. was in good working order.
Ironically, global warming comes with increased risks not only of
flooding, but also of shortage of water.
2.
Shortage of water.
 |
Many
areas could be hit by droughts, especially once glaciers that
previously fed rivers have disappeared. We can also expect more
droughts as the weather becomes more turbulent, while the occasional
heavy storm wouldn't give much relief, but instead cause landslides,
erosion and run-off of top-soil.
|
Heatwaves
and shortage of potable water cause dehydration and heat stroke in
people and livestock, making them more vulnerable to diseases. Lack
of rain and irrigation results in loss of stock and crop, and
increases risks of wildfires.
As
people and animals move to more fertile grounds, overgrazing of land
and clearing land of trees could cause desertification there as well.
All this, combined with the increased risk of flooding, should
increase concerns for famine and disease.
3.
Famine and disease.
Higher temperatures will increase the risk of tropical diseases, such as malaria, in previously temperate zones.
Starvation
is one of the biggest unconscious human fears that may well become a
reality that is daily displayed on TV. The most fertile land is
typically located just above sea level, where rivers enter the sea.
Due to climate change, many areas will need to switch to other crops.
This will take time, further contributing to transitional if not
permanent shortages of food everywhere. Food storage and distribution
will be hit by rising cost of cooling, while stored food will become
exposed to pests and diseases in the face of increased humidity and
in the absence of adequate refridgeration. Cost of transport will
rise, while many roads may become inaccessable due to flooding and
storm damage.
4.
Migration and refugees.
Migration
will stress the infrastructure of many cities, even if they weren't
affected much directly by climate change in terms of famine,
droughts, epidemics, flooding or storm damage. Apart from this,
people will also be driven away from many areas by pollution, heat,
pests, diseases, shortages of water and supplies, and collapse of
infrastructure, medical care and security.
Many
people will seek new habitats, while at the same time many countries
will seek to stop refugees from crossing borders. Refugee camps are
notorious for the outbreak of epidemics, such as cholera. Without
proper planning and action, this could result in human tragedy at
unprecedented scale, while refugee camps could become breeding
grounds for new diseases like avian influenza.
 |
5.
Collapse of the financial system.
 |
The
value of money used to be linked to gold, but now is based on
economic growth, value of real estate and the value of stock (company
shares) and the like. As such factors become increasingly exposed to
the the above points, the entire global financial system risks
collapse.
Uncertainty
about this increases the risk that governments will simply become
more dictatorial.
In
the absence of market forces to guide developments, there will be
increased risks that such dictatorial governments take actions that
make things worse, resulting in total economic collapse.
6.
Economic collapse.
Many
countries face uncertain futures, as they are dependent on income
from oil, coal, tourism or a single crop that cannot survive climate
change. As an example, air travel could become too expense for
tourists, taking away the single biggest revenue stream for many
small countries. Entire industries, such as manufacturing of cars and
airplanes, may collapse. Globalisation has made many industries
dependent on access to resources and products that come from halfway
around the world, while the cost of transport is likely to go up.
Again,
such economic collapse may set the scene for dictatorship in many
areas, increasing the risk of war and of wrong decisions being taken
in general.
 |
7.
War and civil unrest.
The
above points should increase our concerns about the risk of wars and
civil unrest. Production of weapons is one
of the biggest industries worldwide,
with the clout to influence governments. The oil industry is often
regarded as the most powerful influence of global politics. Some
countries will want quick and dramatic changes, while other countries
may resist all calls for change or may want entirely different
changes, setting up confrontation at a global scale and setting the
scene for World War III. Within most countries, there will also be
opposing groups. The smartest people, who we now need more than ever,
may be killed, may end up in prison or may otherwise be silenced,
while dictators seek to grab power without any intention of solving
the problems.
 |
8.
Pollution, in particular as a result of nuclear war, fallout and
waste.
 |
As
concerns about emissions of carbon and methane increase, industry may
- in efforts to avoid emissions of greenhouse gases - cause other
types of pollution instead, such as soot and sulfur by diesel
engines.
The
air will get more polluted in cities, as their population and traffic
grow. Global warming causes hot summer days to get hotter, especially
where there are Urban
Heat Islands,
increasing ground-level ozone, which exacerbates smog.
The
nuclear industry may present itself as a "green"
alternative, whereas nuclear fallout and waste should count as some
of the biggest pollution dangers. As concerns about carbon emissions
sink in, more countries may consider
using nuclear power for electricity,
despite its high cost, while many countries may seek to develop
nuclear weapons in response to perceived increased risk of war in the
light of the above points. The secrecy under which such development
takes place gives cause to concern about global safety and security.
9.
Tipping points.
 |
One
of the biggest dangers is that, without dramatic action, Earth will
reach certain tipping points beyond which sudden dramatic and
catastrophic changes take place that are irreversable in the short
term.
Droughts
and fire could destroy
the Amazon.
The Arctic may lose all of its sea ice within
years.
Global warming may
cause earthquakes,
which can come with tsunamis and shockwaves that can also disturb
submarine hydrates, causing them to release huge
amounts of methane.
While droughts, earthquakes and more turbulent weather come with loss
of lives, infrastructure and fertile land, global warming can also
cause tipping points to be crossed, making the greenhouse effect even
worse.
So,
instead of facing gradual changes that can be mitigated by planned
action, we may suddenly face a future in which many if not most
people will have little or no access to food, water, medicines,
electricity and shelter, while diseases go rampant and gangs and
warlords loot and devastate the few livable areas left. Human beings
as a species will face the risk of total extinction, particularly if
many species of animals and plants that humans depend on will
disappear.
10.
Panic.
 |
While
each of the above points is sufficient reason for concern, many
people are still in denial about the severity of the problem of
global warming, the accumulation of dangers and their progression.
Once
they do get the message, though, there's a risk of over-reaction
edging into panic. This may result in people buying up all the food
they can get hold of, trying to get their hands on weapons, etc.
Unscrupulous companies may exploit the situation by deliberately
creating scarcity of medicines, etc.
This
is another reason to be open about these concerns and to come up with
planning that makes sense.
Background:
This post is an illustrated version - with minor editorial edits - of
the original
post
of March 7, 2007, which was followed on April 8, 2007, by Ten
Recommendations to deal with global warming.
By early 2013, these two posts, together with another 2007 post at
Gather
(on the
Hydrogen Economy)
had been viewed by some 100,000 individual visitors.
For
more background, view cutting-edge developments and proposals at the
following two blogs, which have jointly received well over 1,000,000
views:
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