Climate refugees

Portland should brace for ‘climate refugees’

Eco Thoughts • Climate disruption could be defining issue of the century

BY KAT WEST

Portland Tribune,

9 June, 2011

Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

This simple intention captures the climate-disruption planning that is gearing up in our region.

We know that the metropolitan Portland region is more resilient to impacts from climate change like sea-level rises, freshwater shortages and energy-price spikes than most other communities in the United States. That is the good news.

The bad news is that our good fortune is going to make us a magnet.

Climate disruption will be the defining issue of this century and probably for centuries to come. No famine, no war, no plague, not even natural disasters will compare with the impacts of this event on human civilization.

The Northwest, with our temperate weather and abundant water, will not be immune to climate change impacts, by any means. In fact, we may be a victim of our own success.

No one has a crystal ball. But it is now predicted that the Southwest will experience a permanent drought, far worse than the 1930s Dust Bowl. That may cause massive population migration in a breathtakingly short period of time (in the next four decades), as the arable water supply from Kansas to California dries up. University of Arizona studies indicate that if greenhouse gases continue to go unchecked, the overused Colorado River – which supplies municipal and agricultural water to seven western states – may be reduced to half of its current flow under a plausible worst-case scenario.

The Southwest has suffered a severe drought since 2000. That will be exacerbated, as average temperatures soar by as much as 11 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100.

The great cities of Phoenix, Los Angeles and Las Vegas could start to empty out after desperate measures to import water from other areas (including ours) fails. And it’s not just the Southwest that will be impacted; the populations of Denver and Salt Lake City also will face serious water shortages.

There simply won’t be enough water for everyone.

Millions of displaced Americans could be on the move. They will not be the first climate refugees in the world, nor the last, but they certainly will be knocking on our door.

We really have only two choices: stamp our feet in frustration or seize this opportunity to prepare for these inevitable guests. If we choose opportunity, we need to start incorporating a revised population estimate into our planning scenarios immediately. We could be facing a population that tops 6 million people in the metro region in the not-too-distant future.

This impact, which will severely tax our infrastructure and social services, will be layered upon significant ecological stressors from climate change in Oregon (including hotter and drier summers, reductions in snowpack, changes in agriculture capacity, increased wildfires, more frequent flooding and landslides, increases in health risks and changing ecosystems leading to wildlife and plant extinction).

Beyond preparing for impacts, the benefit of creating a climate-resilient community is that it will only accelerate what makes our region exceptional, including compact urban areas that protect our local food supply and other efforts to create a healthy and prosperous region.

How and where do we start? First, our bright-line test should be “no new money for old ways.” Let’s draw a line in the sand and commit through all our planning and investments to integrated land use, transportation, natural resource, health and economic-prosperity strategies that prepare us for a future of significantly higher energy prices and greater demands on public infrastructure, services and natural resources. Second, we need to “think regionally and act regionally.” The time for border disputes and planning and investing in silos must end.

Only by co-leveraging our resources and recognizing that we are paddling the same boat will we stay afloat. Third, we need to protect what we value by preparing for not only climate refugees, but all the climate-disruption impacts our region faces. Our top priority must be to maintain the livability of our region and increase the opportunities for all who live here and will live here. Several efforts at the state, regional and local level are under way to assess climate vulnerabilities in our natural, built and social environments, but broader support and partnerships are needed to implement recommendations.

By planning for the worst and hoping for the best, we can prepare for climate impacts and curb greenhouse emissions while maintaining our region’s livability standard, maybe even improving it. This is not to minimize the tremendous effort and political will that is necessary, but if any community can rise to the challenge, it is us.

We don’t have any time to waste; we have a nation to inspire.

Kat West is director of the Multnomah County Office of Sustainability, but wrote this Eco Thoughts column as a private citizen.