Saturday 13 October 2018

Panic continuess on the markets

The question is if there will be a "black Monday", either in the Asian markets or on Wall Street.


Dow leaps nearly 300 points but ends week sharply lower




Stocks ended sharply higher after a volatile trading session Friday but still posted sharp losses for the week as traders fretted over rising interest rates, high technology valuations and worries about a possible economic slowdown.

The Dow gained 287 points, led by a 4.7 percent surge in Visa. The S&P 500 jumped 1.4 percent as the tech sector surged 3.2 percent. The Nasdaq outperformed, surging 2.3 percent.

Despite the strong gains Friday, the Dow and S&P 500 finished the week down by more than 4 percent, while the Nasdaq posted a 3.7 percent weekly loss.




Global Markets Dump $6 Trillion As "Loco" Fed & Trade Turmoil Spark Panic

12 October, 2018

What's $6 trillion between friends? "Everybody else was buying so I followed in their tracks..."

Global Capital Markets aggregate 'wealth' collapsed in the last two weeks... (bonds first, then stocks)...

79 of 94 global equity indices ended the week red...
China started badly and ended worse - biggest weekly loss since Jan 2016...

European stocks were a bloodbath, closing on their lows this week (second worst week since Jan 2016) at the lowest since Jan 2017...Italy was worst on the week (and is now in a bear market)

US equity markets were clubbed like baby seals...
Catching down to the rest of the world...

But a late Friday afternoon bounce flattered them in the end (see you Sunday night)...
It wouldn't be 'Murica if we closed red on a Friday...all of which lines up the perfect narrative that this confirms the worst is over
Take your pick of the headlines:
  • *S&P 500, DOW AVERAGE, NASDAQ 100 END WORST WEEK SINCE MARCH
  • *S&P 500 RALLIES 1.4% FOR BIGGEST GAIN SINCE APRIL
  • *NASDAQ 100 SURGES 2.8% IN BEST RALLY SINCE MARCH
All US equity sectors were red on the week led by Materials and Industrials (and Financials floundered today despite the earnings)...Utes outperformed (but were still down 1.7%)

On the month so far, it's carnage:
  • Nasdaq 100 is on course for the worst month since Nov 2008
  • Small Caps are on course for the worst month since September 2011
  • S&P is on course for the worst month since August 2015 (China Deval)
All the major US equity indices ramped back up to their 200DMAs... (Russell well below, Dow to its 100DMA)
Interestingly, Value/Growth ended almost unchanged on the week...
FANGs were down on the week, but bounced today...
Small Caps joined Transports in the red YTD...
Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Healthcare all together at the top as best performers of the year (but well off the highs) - all other sectors are red for 2018 with Materials worst...
US Equity breadth is a disaster...
VIX spiked almost 9 vols on the week - the biggest weekly jump since March, doubling since 10/3 as the curve massively inverts...
And the Put-Call Ratio is spiking...

HY Bonds were right... again!

Corporate bond breadth was also a catastrophe this week... as new 52-week lows spike in IG and HY...
Away from the bloodbath in stocks, bonds were notably bid... (maybe they just needed that day off on Monday?)
With 10Y Yields dropping most in 5 months (after last week's biggest yield rise since Nov 2016)...
The yield curve flattened notably on the week...
The Dollar Index fell on the week (after two straight weeks higher)
But remains rangebound..
China fixed the yuan lower every day this week, clearly signaling something to Trump, as yesterday's epic spike in Yuan roundtripped today..

Crypros were not spared from the carnage - dumping on Wednesday night when Asia opened (and KRW plunged)...

Black Gold was battered (global growth/demand and inventories) as Yellow Gold surged...
WTI Crude had its worst week since May, testing down to a $70 handle...
Oil tracked stocks - simple

Gold just had its best two-week gain since January...
Silver did not managed new highs...

Gold in Yuan remains well managed...


*  *  *
What does it mean when the most systemically important banks in the world are down 26% from their highs and accelerating lower?

Is this it?


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