CANADA
WARNS OF AMERICA'S COLLAPSE!! MILLIONS OF REFUGEES AT BORDER! DOLLAR
IS TOAST.
America’s
Next Civil War
The
United States shows all the warning signs of impending social and
political collapse
Everyone
in canada with any power has the same job. It
doesn’t matter if you’re prime minister, minister of foreign
affairs, or premier of Alberta; it doesn’t matter if you’re the
mayor of a small town or a ceo of
a major company, if you run a cultural institution or a mine.
Canadians with any power at all have to predict what’s going to
happen in the United States. The American economy remains the world’s
largest; its military spending dwarfs every other country’s; its
popular culture, for the moment, dominates. Canada sits in America’s
shadow. Figuring out what will happen there means figuring out what
we will eventually face here. Today, that job means answering a
simple question: What do we do if the US falls apart?
American
chaos is already oozing over the border: the trickle of refugees
crossing after Trump’s election has swollen to a flood; a trade war
is underway, with a US trade representative describing Canada as “a
national security threat”; and the commander-in-chief of the most
powerful military the world has ever known openly praises
authoritarians as he attempts to dismantle the international postwar
order. The US has withdrawn from the UN Human Rights Council, pulled
out of the Paris climate agreement, abandoned the 2015 Iran nuclear
deal, and scorned the bedrock nato doctrine
of mutual defence. Meanwhile, the imperium itself continues to
unravel: the administration is launching a “denaturalization task
force” to potentially strip scores of immigrants of their US
citizenship, and voter purges—the often-faulty processes of
deleting ineligible names from registration lists—are on the rise,
especially in states with a history of racial discrimination.
News of
one disaster after another keeps up its relentless pace but
nonetheless shocks everybody. If you had told anyone even a year ago
that border guards would be holding children in detention centres, no
one would have believed you.
We
have been naive. Despite our obsessive familiarity with the States,
or perhaps because of it, we have put far too much faith in
Americans. So ingrained has our reliance on America been, we are
barely conscious of our own vulnerability. About 20 percent of
Canada’s gdp comes
from exports to the United States—it’s a trade relationship that
generates 1.9 million Canadian jobs. This dependence is even clearer
when it comes to oil—something the Trans Mountain pipeline
expansion, which will ship our natural resources to global markets,
could remedy. The fact that the premier of British Columbia tried to
stall the project in a show of regional power is a sign of a
collective failure to recognize how perilous our position is.
Ninety-nine percent of our oil exports go to a single customer. And
that customer is in a state of radical instability. According to a
recent poll from Rasmussen Reports, 31 percent of likely US voters
anticipate a second civil war in the next five years.
We
misunderstood who the Americans were. To be fair, so did everybody.
They themselves misunderstood who they were. Barack Obama’s
presidency was based on what we will, out of politeness, call an
illusion, an illusion of national unity articulated most passionately
during Obama’s keynote address at the 2004 Democratic National
Convention: “There is not a liberal America and a conservative
America—there is the United States of America. There is not a black
America and a white America and Latino America and Asian
America—there’s the United States of America.” It was a
beautiful vision. It was an error. There is very much a red America
and a blue America. They occupy different societies with different
values, and the political parties are emissaries of those
differences—differences that are increasingly irreconcilable.
Many
Canadians operate as if this chaos were temporary, mainly because the
collapse of the United States and the subsequent reorientation of our
place in the world are ideas too painful to contemplate. But, by now,
the signs have become impossible to ignore. The job of prediction, as
impossible as it may be, is at hand.
★★★
After
the midterms,
special counsel Robert Mueller presents his report to the deputy
attorney general, and America is thrown into immediate crisis.
Congressional
committees call a parade of witnesses who describe the president’s
collusion and obstruction of justice in detail. The Republicans
respond on television and through public rallies. Rudolph Giuliani,
on Fox
& Friends,
declares that “flipped witnesses are generally not truth-telling
witnesses.” Trump airily waves away the Mueller report at a rally
for 100,000 supporters in Ohio: “I’m going to pardon everyone
anyway, so it’s all a waste of taxpayer dollars.” A ProPublica
survey shows Americans are divided on impeachment.
Since
the Republican base remains overwhelmingly supportive of the
president, the House Republicans, arguing the need for “national
unity,” do not vote for impeachment, which requires a majority in
the House. The vote then goes to the Senate, where Republicans refuse
to remove Trump from office. Mueller presses instead for an
indictment. There is no legal precedent for indicting a sitting
president.
The
case proceeds to a federal judge overseeing a grand jury and then
eventually to the Supreme Court, which has been tipped rightward with
Trump nominees. The court rules that the president cannot be
indicted. Protests fill the streets of Washington, New York, Chicago,
and Los Angeles. Polls vary. Somewhere around 40 percent of Americans
believe the government is legitimate. Somewhere around 60 percent do
not.
Steven
webster is a leading US scholar of “affective
polarization,” the underlying trend that explains the partisan
hatred tearing his country apart. In 2016, he and his colleague Alan
Abramowitz published the paper “The rise of negative partisanship
and the nationalization of U.S. elections in the 21st century,”
which was one of the first attempts to track the steady growth of the
mutual dislike between Republicans and Democrats.
Affective
polarization is a crisis that transcends Trump. If Hillary Clinton
had won the 2016 election, the underlying threat to American
stability would be as real as it is today. Each side—divided by
negative advertising, social media, and a primary system that
encourages enthusiasm over reason—pursues ideological purity at any
cost because ideological purity is increasingly the route to power.
Abramowitz runs a forecasting model that has correctly predicted
every presidential election since 1992. After he modified his model
in 2012 to take into account the impact of growing partisan
polarization, it projected a Trump victory in 2016—and Abramowitz
rejected the results. That should be a testament to the power of the
model; it traced phenomena even its creator didn’t want to believe.
Nobody wants to see what’s coming.
Webster
describes a terrible spiralling effect in action in the US. Anger and
distrust make it very difficult to go about the business of
governing, which leads to ineffective government, which reinforces
the anger and distrust. “Partisans in the electorate don’t like
each other,” he says. “That encourages political elites to bicker
with one another. People in the electorate observe that. And that
encourages them to bicker with one another.” The past few decades
have led to “ideological sorting,” which means that the overlap
between conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans has more or
less disappeared, eliminating the political centre.
But
it’s the people in the parties, not just the ideas in the parties,
that have changed. “There’s a really big racial divide between
the two parties,” says Webster. The nonwhite share of the American
electorate has been increasing tremendously over the last few
decades, and most of those voters have chosen to affiliate with the
Democratic Party. What worries Webster isn’t that the Republican
Party remains vastly whiter than the Democratic Party, which, in
turn, has become more multicultural—though that’s happened. The
real source of the crisis is that white Republicans have become more
intolerant about the country’s growing diversity. According to
the prri/The Atlantic
2018 Voter Engagement Survey, half of Republicans agree that
increased racial diversity would bring a “mostly negative” impact
to American society. During the Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush
years, there really wasn’t as much of a difference between the
racial attitudes of white people in both parties. That’s no longer
true. “During the Obama era, if you look at just white Republicans,
64 percent scored high on the racial-resentment scale. For white
Democrats, it was around 35 percent,” says Webster, who analyzed
data from the American National Election Studies. The Republican
Party has become the party of racial resentment. If it seems easier
for Americans to see the other side as distinct from themselves,
that’s because it is.
The
loathing just keeps growing. In 2016, the Pew Research Center found
that 45 percent of Republicans and 41 percent of Democrats declared
the opposing party’s policies a threat to the nation’s
well-being—up from 37 and 31 percent, respectively, in 2014.
Political adversaries regard each other as un-American; they regard
the other’s media, whether Fox News or the New
York Times,
as poison or fake news. A sizable chunk also don’t want their
children to marry members of the opposing party. “A lot of people
say, ‘What would happen if there were a very independent-minded
candidate, a third-party candidate with no partisan label, who would
come and unite America?’” Webster says. “That is absolutely not
going to happen.” In surveys, independents seem to make up a large
percentage, but if you press those self-identified independents on
their voting behaviour, they look just like strong partisans.
Abramowitz’s own analysis of the 2008 election suggests that only
about 7 percent of American voters are truly independent in that they
don’t lean toward one party or the other.
America
is becoming two Americas, Americas which hate each other. If the
Democrats represent a multicultural country grounded in the value of
democratic norms, then the Republicans represent a white country
grounded in the sanctity of property. The accelerating dislike
partisans feel for the other side—the quite correct sense
that they are
not us—means
that political rhetoric will fly to more and more dangerous extremes.
In September 2016, Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin gave a speech at the
Values Voter Summit in which he openly speculated about violence if
Hillary Clinton were elected: “Whose blood will be shed?” he
asked. “It may be that of those in this room. It might be that of
our children and grandchildren.” More recently, Michael Scheuer, a
former senior ciaofficial,
wrote that it was “quite near time” for Trump supporters to kill
Trump opponents (the blog post has since been deleted).
Such
explicit calls for violence are being driven by a dynamic of othering
that, once started, might not be easily stopped—except by disaster.
“I don’t see an optimistic scenario here,” Webster
acknowledges.
★★★
The
man who assassinates
the president uses a .50-calibre Barrett rifle with armour-piercing
incendiary ammunition. He purchased it legally at a gun show.
The
assassin’s note, posted on Facebook the moment after the
assassination, amounts to a manifesto, but it’s nothing Americans
haven’t heard before. He quotes Thomas Jefferson, about the tree of
liberty refreshed by the blood of patriots. He compares the president
to Hitler. “People say that if they had a time machine they would
go back and remove the monsters of history,” he writes. “I
realized that there is a time machine. It’s called the present and
a gun.”
The
assassination of the president leads, at first, to a great deal of
public hand wringing. On social media, the assassin’s heroism is
suggested and then outright celebrated. Within a month, the
assassin’s face appears on T-shirts at rallies.
The
assassination is used as a pretext for increasing executive power,
just as in the aftermath of September 11. Americans broadly accept
the massive curtailing of civil rights and a dramatic increase in the
reach of the surveillance state as the price of security.
Scott
gates is an American who lives in Norway, where he
studies conflict patterns at the Peace Research Institute Oslo. His
work has been devoted to political struggles in the developing world,
where most of the civil wars happen. He now sees that his research
has applications at home. The question for the US, as it is for every
other country nearing the precipice, is whether civil society is
strong enough to hold back the ferocious violence of its politics.
Gates isn’t entirely sure on that point anymore.
Democracies
are built around institutions that are larger than partisan struggle;
they survive on the strength of them. The delegitimization of
national institutions “almost inevitably leads to chaos,” Gates
says, citing Trump’s constant attacks on the fbi,
the Department of Justice, and the judicial system as typical of
societies headed toward political collapse, as happened in Venezuela
under Hugo Chávez.
The Supreme Court has already been the engine of
its own invalidation. Since the ideologically divided Bush v. Gore
ruling which decided the 2000 election, the Supreme Court no longer
represents transcendent interests of national purpose. Trust in the
Supreme Court, according to a recent Gallup poll, is split sharply
along partisan lines, with 72 percent of Republicans reporting
approval compared to 38 percent of Democrats. Mitch McConnell’s
decision to make the appointment of a Supreme Court justice an
election issue in 2018—an appointment that will likely not get the
support of a single Democratic senator—is an example of a political
institution being converted into a token in a zero-sum game, exactly
the kind of decision that has played a part in destabilizing smaller,
poorer countries.
Once the norm has been shattered, it becomes
difficult to glue back together.
In
a sense, the crisis has already arrived. Only the inciting incident
is missing. In December 1860, the fifteenth president of the United
States, James Buchanan, believed he was offering a compromise between
proslavery and antislavery groups in his State of the Union address,
but his remarks preceded the Civil War by four months. His
declaration—that secession was unlawful but that he couldn’t
constitutionally do anything about it—became the moment when
America split and the war was inevitable.
Few American institutions now seem capable of providing
acceptably impartial arbitration—not the Supreme Court, not the
Department of Justice, not the fbi.
The only institution in American life still seen as being above
politics is the military, which, according to a 2018 Gallup survey,
is the most trusted institution in the country, with 74 percent of
Americans expressing confidence in it. No surprise: the worship of
the armed forces has been ingrained into ordinary American life since
the Iraq War. Not so much as a baseball game can happen in the US
without a celebration of a soldier. Members of the military are even
given priority boarding on major US airlines.
If
civil order were threatened, could America look to the troops to step
in? In 2017, about 25 percent of Democrats and 30 percent of
Republicans said they would consider it “justified” if the
military intervened in a situation where the country faced rampant
crime or corruption. In an article in Foreign
Policy,
Rosa Brooks, previously a counsellor to the US undersecretary of
defence for policy and a senior adviser at the US State Department,
could imagine “plausible scenarios” where military leaders would
openly defy an order from Trump.
A
coup would hardly be unprecedented, in global terms: in Chile, in the
1970s, a democracy in place for decades devolved into winner-take-all
hyperpartisan politics until the military imposed tranquilidad.
But even the armed forces might not be enough of a power to stabilize
the United States. There is a huge gap between enlisted troops and
officers when it comes to politics. According to a poll conducted by
the Military
Times,
a news source for service members, almost 48 percent of enlisted
troops approve of Trump, but only about 30 percent of officers do. It
appears that the American military is as divided as the country.
Would
a coup even work? The American military hasn’t been particularly
good at pacifying other countries’ civil wars. Why would it be any
good at pacifying its own?
There
are trends—which no country can escape, or that few
have escaped, anyway—that forecast the likelihood of civil
conflict.
A
2014 study from Anirban Mitra and Debraj Ray, two economics
professors based in the UK and US respectively, examined the
motivations underlying Hindu-Muslim violence in India, where Hindus
are the dominant majority and Muslims one of the disadvantaged
minorities. The two professors found that “an increase in per
capita Muslim expenditures generates a large and significant increase
in future religious conflict. An increase in Hindu expenditures has a
negative or no effect.”
That
suggests revolution is not like the communist prophets of the
nineteenth century believed it would be, with the underclass rising
up against their oppressors. It’s sometimes the oppressors who
revolt. In the case of India, according to Mitra and Ray’s
research, riots start at the times and in the places when and where
the Muslims are gaining the most relative to the Hindus. Violence
protects status in a context of declining influence.
“A
very similar pattern of resentment can be seen in the US right now,”
Gates tells me. The white working-class community perceives its
position in life as worsening. “At the same time,” he says, “the
Latino community and the black community have been improving their
status, relative to where they were.” In other words, white
resentment doesn’t necessarily reflect actual changes in financial
well-being as much as frustration in the face of minorities making
significant gains. And, as status dwindles, the odds of violence
increase. Gates points to the bloody Charlottesville rally as the
kind of flashpoint fuelled in part by a sense of aggrieved white
diminishment.
We
can track the destabilizing effect of threatened status in other
conflicts around the world. A struggle between ethnic groups losing
and gaining privilege contributed, in varying degrees, to the
brutality between Hutus and Tutsis in Rwanda in the 1990s and to the
earlier Biafran War in Nigeria.
There
are deeper anxieties and more troubling visions for
anyone whose job is to predict where America is headed. For the
really scary stuff, you have to go to Robert McLeman, who studies
migration patterns and climate change at Waterloo’s Wilfrid Laurier
University. He’s got a kind of cheerful and upbeat way of
describing the spread of total chaos that’s disarming.
Climate
change can bring about political chaos, in large part through
migration. “Military people call it a threat multiplier,” McLeman
tells me. Usually, migration is the last resort, a response to
changes that are unpredictable and unexpected. So Bangladesh, to take
an example, will typically not experience mass migration because of
flood, because people in that region have been dealing with floods
for thousands of years. But a drought could cause a serious crisis,
causing waves of migration into India.
As
its departure from the Paris climate agreement clarified, America is
barely able to face the fact that climate change exists, never mind
able to come up with effective strategies to accommodate itself to
the reality it is already facing. In 2012, a hot and dry year in the
US, soy bean, sorghum, and corn yields were down as much as 16
percent. And, because the country is a major producer of commodity
crops, the drought pushed up food prices at home and globally. There
are a lot more 2012s coming. And, of course, America is utterly
unprepared for the vastly less predictable catastrophes of
climate-change extremes, as New Orleans and Puerto Rico have both
learned to their destruction.
Most
worrying to McLeman is the fact that American populations are growing
in the areas that are most vulnerable to unpredictable catastrophes.
They include coastal New York, coastal New Jersey, Florida, coastal
Louisiana, the Carolinas, the Valley of the Sun, the Bay Area, and
Los Angeles. Many Central Americans who were separated from their
children at the American border were fleeing gangs and political
instability, but they were also fleeing drought. “Environmentally
related migration already happens—we’re just seeing the thin edge
of the wedge right now,” McLeman says. Get used to refugees at the
Canadian border. There may be more of them.
All
right, you say, there are conditions that lead to civil war:
hyperpartisanship, the reduction of politics to a zero-sum game, the
devastation of law and national institutions in the context of
environmentally caused mass migration, and the relative decline of a
privileged group. Fine. But when you land at jfk and
line up for Shake Shack, where are the insurgents? Then again, in
other countries and in other times, it’s never been clear, at least
at first, whether a civil war is really underway. Confusion is a
natural state at the beginning of any collapse. Who is a rebel and
who is a bandit? Who is a freedom fighter and who is a terrorist? The
line between criminality and revolution blurred in Mexico, in Cuba,
and in Ireland.
The technical definition of a civil war is 1,000 battle deaths a year. Armed conflict starts at twenty-five battle deaths a year. What if America is already in an armed conflict and we just haven’t noticed? What if we just haven’t noticed because we’re not used to uprisings happening in places where there’s Bed Bath & Beyond?
he technical definition of a civil war is 1,000
battle deaths a year. Armed conflict starts at twenty-five battle
deaths a year. What if America is already in an armed conflict and we
just haven’t noticed? What if we just haven’t noticed because
we’re not used to uprisings happening in places where there’s Bed
Bath & Beyond?
If
there is an insurgency-in-waiting, it will likely be
drawn from the hundreds of antigovernment groups across the country,
many of which were readying for civil war in 2016 in the event of a
Hillary Clinton presidency. One of the most extreme examples is an
ideological subculture made up of “sovereign citizens,” who
believe that citizens are the sole authority of law. Ryan Lenz, a
senior investigative reporter for the Southern Poverty Law Center,
has been researching them for nearly eight years. It’s been a
terrifying eight years. A 2011 splc report
pegged the number of the sovereign citizens, a mix of hard-core
believers and sympathizers, at 300,000. The movement, Lenz believes,
has grown significantly since then.
To
put that in perspective, the Weather Underground was estimated to
contain hundreds of members. Some guesses put the number of Black
Panthers as high as 10,000, a debatable figure. Both the Underground
and the Panthers—who talked a great deal about the justification
for violence but managed to commit relatively little—caused immense
panic in the late sixties and seventies and massive responses from
the fbi. Sovereign
citizens, and antigovernment extremists as a whole, are part of a
much larger movement, many are armed, they anticipate the government
to fall in some capacity, and they are responsible for about a dozen
killings a year. The fbi has
addressed them, and their growing menace, as domestic terrorism. In
2014, a survey conducted with US officers in intelligence services
across the country found sovereign citizens to be the country’s top
concern, even ahead of Islamic extremists, for law enforcement.
Theirs
is a totalizing vision of absolute individual freedom and resistance
to a state they believed is ruled by an unjust government. Rooted
historically in racism and anti-Semitism—they hovered on the
extreme fringes of American politics until the 2008 housing crisis
and the election of Barack Obama—sovereign citizens believe they
are sovereign unto themselves and, therefore, can ignore any local,
state, or federal laws and are not beholden to any law enforcement.
According to the splc,
the sovereign citizens believe that the federal government is an
entity that operates outside the purview of the US Constitution for
the purposes of holding citizens in slavery.
“Understanding
sovereign-citizenry ideology is like trying to map a crack that
develops on your windshield after a pebble hits it. It’s a wild and
chaotic mess,” Lenz tells me. Ultimately, the movement boils down
to a series of conspiracy theories justifying nonobedience to
government agents. Sometimes it expresses itself as convoluted tax
dodges, as in the case of the self-proclaimed president of the
Republic for the united States of America (RuSA), James Timothy
Turner, who was convicted of sending a $300 million fictitious bond
in his own name and aiding and abetting others in sending fictitious
bonds to the Treasury Department. Turner was sentenced to eighteen
years in prison. Bruce A. Doucette, a self-appointed sovereign
“judge,” received thirty-eight years in jail for influencing,
extorting, and threatening public officials.
At
other times, the spirit of disobedience expresses itself in straight
violence, as in the case of Jerry and Joseph Kane, a father-son pair
who, in 2010, killed two police officers at a routine traffic stop in
West Memphis, Arkansas. Or in the case of Jerad and Amanda Miller
who, in 2014, after killing two police officers at a CiCi’s Pizza
in Las Vegas, shouted to horrified onlookers that the revolution had
begun.
★★★
The summers grow hotter, and the yields on corn and beans grow smaller. During the first drought, the declines are small. The year after is more serious. Food prices spike. Inflation rises, leading to a sharp jump in unemployment.
China,
holding $1.18 trillion (US) of US government debt, dumps its bonds as
a retaliatory measure against US tariffs. This causes every other
country to panic and sell their holdings as well, bringing China
closer to becoming the global reserve currency. With the US bond
market routed, higher interest rates ripple through the economy,
slowing it down.
The
hardest hit are the farming communities dependent on commodity crops.
The antigovernment movements in these areas swell and organize. They
elect local politicians, particularly sheriffs. Pockets of the
southern and midwestern states, under these sheriffs, believe that
the federal government has no legitimate authority over them.
By
this time, a Democratic president has come to power, with
significantly more socialistic ideas than any president in history.
She eventually passes legislation imposing national education and
health care programs. The local authorities take these programs as
illegitimate government interference and, in the heated rhetorical
climate, claim the mantle of resistance, which is also taken up by
armed insurgencies.
The
National Guard swiftly imposes order. But the states consider
themselves, and are considered by others, to be under occupation.
The
borders of
North America are, in their ways, as patchwork as those in the Middle
East and as nonsensical. The French lost to the English. The British
lost to the Americans. The Mexicans lost to the Americans. The South
lost to the North. The alignments of any political unity are forced;
they defy historical experience, geography, ethnicity, or political
ideology. And that’s why it’s all so breakable, so fragile.
The
antigovernment extremists know who they are. They see themselves as
the true Americans. And who could deny there’s a certain justice in
the claim? What could be more American than tax rebellion, the
worship of violence as political salvation, a mangled
misinterpretation of the Constitution, and a belief system
derived sui generis that blurs passionate belief with
straight hucksterism? The next American civil war will not look like
the first American Civil War. It will not be between territories over
resources and the right to self-determination. It will be a
competition over distinct ideas of what America is. It will be a war
fought over what America means. Is it a republic with checks and
balances or a place that yields to the whims of a president’s
executive power? Is the United States a country of white settlers or
a nation of immigrants? It’s also possible, maybe probable, that
the country will never get answers.
★★★
In Canada, in
the middle of the American collapse, the Queen dies. Charles III
accedes to the throne. Despite the prospect of having his face on the
money, there is no serious attempt to challenge the status quo. It’s
a hard time to argue in favour of any dramatic political reordering.
For the same reason, though Quebec separatism rises and falls as
usual, a new referendum on independence is put away for a generation;
there’s enough instability in North America.
The
refugee crisis at the border continues to grow, quickly outstripping
the ability of border agencies to manage it effectively. Canada’s
appetite for refugees withers as the tide swells. Calls for order
grow louder. Asylum centres appear as in Germany and Denmark.
Despite
restrictions on refugees from the United States, Canada remains
scrupulously multicultural. When a visa applicant from India, hoping
to work at Google, is separated from his daughter at the US border,
and they are reconciled after a month, the world’s technological
elite move to Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal. People who have young
families and aren’t white find the prospect of building a career in
the United States too precarious.
The
hunger among young Canadian talent for New York and Los Angeles and
San Francisco naturally diminishes for the same reason. Innovators
cannot just head south when they encounter the inertia which defines
so much of Canadian life. The stolid cultural industries and the tech
world lose their garrison mentality, at least somewhat.
To
sum up:
the US Congress is too paralyzed by anger to carry out even the most
basic tasks of government. America’s legal system grows less
legitimate by the day. Trust in government is in free fall. The
president discredits the fbi,
the Department of Justice, and the judicial system on a regular
basis. Border guards place children in detention centres at the
border. Antigovernment groups, some of which are armed militias,
stand ready and prepared for a government collapse. All of this has
already happened.
Breakdown
of the American order has defined Canada at every stage of its
history, contributing far more to the formation of Canada’s
national identity than any internal logic or sense of shared purpose.
In his book The Civil War Years, the historian Robin Winks
describes a series of Canadian reactions to the early stages of the
first American Civil War. In 1861, when the Union formed what was
then one of the world’s largest standing armies, William Henry
Seward, the secretary of state, presented Lincoln with a memorandum
suggesting that the Union “send agents into Canada…to rouse a
vigorous continental spirit of independence.” Canadian support for
the North withered, and panicked fantasies of imminent conquest
flourished. After the First Battle of Bull Run, a humiliating defeat
for the Union, two of John A. Macdonald’s followers toasted the
victory in the Canadian Legislative Assembly. The possibility of an
American invasion spooked the French Canadian press, with one journal
declaring there was nothing “so much in horror as the thought of
being conquered by the Yankees.”
The
first American Civil War led directly to Canadian Confederation.
Whatever our differences, we’re quite sure we don’t want to
be them.
How
much longer before we realize that we need to disentangle Canadian
life as much as possible from that of the United States? How much
longer before our foreign policy, our economic policy, and our
cultural policy accept that any reliance on American institutions is
foolish? Insofar as such a separation is even possible, it will be
painful. Already, certain national points of definition are emerging
in the wake of Trump. We are, despite all our evident hypocrisies,
generally in favour of multiculturalism, a rules-based international
order, and freedom of trade. They are not just values; the collapsing
of the United States reveals them to be integral to our survival as a
country.
Northrop
Frye once wrote that Canadians are Americans who reject the
revolution. When the next revolution comes, we will need to be ready
to reject it with everything we have and everything we are.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)
Stephen
Marche (@StephenMarche)
published The Hunger of the Wolf, a novel, in February 2015. The
Unmade Bed, his sixth book, is out now.
Sébastien
Thibault draws for the New York Times, L’actualité,
and The Atlantic.
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