Wednesday, 20 July 2016


The following provides a pictorial cross-section of what is happening to the world climate as of the 19h July, 2016

Many thanks to Harold Hensell, Sam Carana and others who have produced the following pictorials.

Abrupt climate change in pictures
.... World wide temperature anomalies

The Pacific Jet Stream

2016 is on track to blow all previous record hot years out of the water.

Breaking ice in the Chukchi Sea

Harold H Hensel: "I have complained that NASA should take a plane, fly under the clouds and make images. Here is an image where they did just that." -- "Chunks of sea ice, melt ponds and open water are all seen in this image captured at an altitude of 1,500 feet by the NASA's Digital Mapping System instrument during an Operation IceBridge flight over the Chukchi Sea on Saturday, July 16, 2016. Credit: NASA/Goddard/Operation IceBridge."

Wildfires in Siberia

July 19, 2016 ~
Carbon Monoxide
Earth Nullschool Map

From space

That giant heatwave in Siberia near the Kara Sea just won't end. The daily high temperatures up there have been in the 80s and 90s for more than a week now.

Arctic Ice 07 19 2016 East Siberian Sea. 

It looks like most of the ice in the East Siberian Sea is clearing out or melting. The clouds block a clear view but I an guessing that open water extends from the shore line to the clouds and ice. This is a very sensitive area since heavy concentrations of methane hydrates are on the ocean floor here. 

Arctic Surface Temperatures 07 18 2016

Arctic Sea Ice Collapse 11—18 July: Annual Average Extent

We are now finally lowest ever for the date in annual average extent for the foreseeable future. What this will mean remains to be seen: Plot shows annual average* extent, not daily extent. The big breaking news in this AAE update is that 2016 has gone below 2013 and is now — as of Sunday — the lowest 12 month–period ever ending on July 17 and 18. And there are other record lows to look forward to: The nearest one — likely to arrive in late August — is the lowest 12 month–period ever, ending whenever. And if even that goes into the sad book of low ice records, I see no reason to doubt that an even more dire low record will be set in September or even October, that of the lowest ever daily sea ice extent at autumn minimum.

Currently, however, the 2nd forecast for the autumn minimum extent points to a conservative 3.3—3.7 million km² ice–pack in Mid–September, which means we'll be lower than 2007 but higher than current record holder 2012. Yet with two months still to go, there is every reason to take this forecast with abundant buckets of brine.

Eyeballing the graph we're already lower than 2011 ever was, and about as low as 2012 in the upper right edge 4 months ahead of 2012. The blue dotted line and confidence interval suggest we'll be below 9.8 million km² by Mid–November, so truly dramatically lower than both 2012 in autumn and 2013 during spring. Thus, we have now finally entered the dreaded uncharted waters, where — literally — anything may happen. Including annual and ever longer Blue Ocean events. 

We're into the great wide open.

June 2016 was 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average, breaking 2015's mark for the warmest June on record.

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