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See this discussion below from Robertscribbler's Facebook page testifying to his addiction to Hopium.
This is What the Athropocene Looks Like — Tropical Storms Are Now Forming During Winter
8
January, 2015
Tropical
Storms in both the Atlantic and Pacific during January. It could
happen this week. And it’s all due to this new Anthropocene weather
we’re now experiencing.
*****
The
Holocene ended more than half a century ago.
That’s when human impacts from the production of plastics, to the
use of nuclear materials, to the forcing of species extinction,became
what scientists now believe to be the dominant influence on this era
of Earth history.
It was also the time when human beings were in the process of
plotting a course to radically alter the Earth’s climate. Pumping
greenhouse gasses into the global environment at the fastest pace
ever recorded in the geological record. Setting the stage for a
warming event not seen in millions of years and, perhaps, in all of
time on this world. One that would fundamentally alter the
geophysical nature of the Earth system from the bottom of the oceans
to the top of the atmosphere.
And
it sure does feel like it — with
the North Pole now experiencing above-freezing temperatures during
Winter and
with both the Atlantic and the Pacific retaining enough heat and
instability to brew up tropical cyclones during January.
Unprecedented
Tropical Cyclone Development in Both the Pacific and the Atlantic
During January
It’s
really a bit of an understatement to say that January is not a month
where we usually see tropical cyclone formation in the Northern
Hemisphere. Back
in the 1870s it happened in the Atlantic. Once.
In the Pacific, which tends to host sea surface temperatures that are
hotter than those in the Atlantic, the various basins can sometimes
see these beasts blow up early on in the year. Sometimes meaning that
two have only ever been recorded during January — Winona on January
9 of 1985 and Ekeka on January 26 of 1992.
Since
climatology is the understanding of trends in average weather over
long periods, we can probably say that the off-season tropical
cyclone climatology has already changed for the Pacific. During
the 148 years since record keeping began in 1832 for the Pacific
through to 1980 only seven tropical cyclones were recorded to have
formed during the period of December through May.
During just the 35 years since 1980, we’ve seen nearly twice that
many — 12. In other words, the rate of recorded off-season storm
formation septupled or increased a factor of 7. And both the earliest
and the latest named stormed have now formed during back-to-back
years — Nine C on New Years Eve less than two weeks ago and now
Pali on January 7th.
What
we are seeing now is unprecedented by any measure of tropical weather
system climatology. We have never seen a tropical storm form so early
in the Central Pacific at the same time during which a similar, very
rare, tropical system was threatening to form in the Atlantic. In
other words, it’s not just both events in isolation that’s quite
odd. It’s the fact they are both happening side-by-side.
Pali
— Earliest Tropical Cyclone to have Ever Formed in Central Pacific
Pali,
in particular, is an unusual beast. According to Weather
Underground, as
of early this morning Pali was whipping up 65 mile per hour winds and
rough surf along a broad region of water some 1350 miles southeast of
Hawaii.
Pali spun up out of a westerly wind burst and storm pattern
associated with the monster El Nino now going off in the Pacific. But
even during past super El Ninos, related odd tropical systems have
tended to form mainly during late November through to mid December.
The formation of Pali is then possibly associated with both this late
peaking El Nino and with sea surface temperatures in the Pacific that
are now among the hottest ever seen in human reckoning.
(According
to today’s National Hurricane Center forecast, Pali could stick
around for quite some time. This record earliest Pacific cyclone
could last into the middle of January — spinning out westerly winds
that aid in the maintenance and possible re-intensification of the
current super El Nino. Image source: NOAA’s
Central Pacific Hurricane Center.)
Pali
is expected to meander along the Central Pacific equatorial region in
which it formed over the next six days. It
is predicted to maintain tropical storm intensity throughout this
period — making it a rather long-lasting weather system. Expected
to re-curve back toward the Equator near the 175 West Longitude line,
the strong westerlies associated with Pali could also aid in
maintaining or even increasing the strength of our current super El
Nino — driving warm water up-welling in the Eastern Pacific to
reinvigorate. Sea surface temperatures in the range of 27 to 28
degrees Celsius are more than enough to maintain tropical storm
intensity. Meanwhile, sea surfaces in the range of 3-4 degrees
Celsius hotter than normal just to the southeast of Pali will
continue to provide considerable moisture for the storm to feed upon.
Wind shear, therefore, is the only major limiter for Pali. And though
shear appears to be strong enough to preclude Pali’s development
into a typhoon, it is not at this time predicted to become intense
enough to disperse Pali. So, if the forecast is correct, we’re
looking at this storm sticking around for at least another week.
30
Percent Chance of Tropical Cyclone Development in the Atlantic During
January
As
if Pali and this ramping trend of off-season tropical cyclone
formation in the Pacific weren’t enough to put an exclamation point
after the sentence — tropical storms are forming earlier than they
used to — we have a concordant potential tropical cyclone
development happening at the same time in the Atlantic. A weird storm
is taking on extra-tropical characteristics off the US East Coast.
Already packing gale-force winds in the range of 60-65 miles per
hour, this odd system now has the potential to become a warm-core,
tropical low as it moves eastward toward the Azores.
The
storm now sits over sea surface temperatures in the range of 23-26
degrees Celsius. That’s much, much hotter than normal (2 to 8
degrees Celsius above average) for that region of the North Atlantic
for this time of year. It’s also in the range that’s generally
considered just about enough to support tropical storm and even
possibly hurricane formation. Subsequently, the National Hurricane
Center sees the potential for a warm core formation in this system
and has given it a 10 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm
over the next 48 hours.
(Very
odd North Atlantic Gale rages over record warm waters in the North
Atlantic. This system now has a 10 percent chance to develop into a
tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. Over the next five days, the
chance of tropical cyclone development jumps to 30 percent. Image
source: The
National Hurricane Center.)
This
freakish system is then expected to skirt the southern edge of a
powerful low between the UK and Greenland. Tracking eastward toward
Africa, its winds are predicted to further intensify as it heads
toward somewhat warmer waters. Over the next five days, the National
Hurricane Center gives a moderate chance (30 percent) that this
system will form into a tropical cyclone.
As
noted above, such weather patterns are not at all normal for the
North Atlantic. And if a hurricane or tropical storm did form during
January in the North Atlantic it would be the first time since 1872.
Again it’s a case of we’ve never seen weather like this before.
We’ve never seen hurricanes so early in the Central Pacific. We’ve
never seen sea surface temperatures so warm during Winter off the US
East Coast. And we’ve never seen the potential development of a
January Atlantic tropical system at the same time such systems are
riling the waters of the Equatorial Pacific.
The
scientists were absolutely right. The Holocene is over. We’re
living on a different planet.
Links:
Hat
Tip to Colorado Bob
Hat
Tip to Caroline
Hat
Tip to DT Lange
I
In the
comments section of the article Robertscribbler showed himself to be
pretty "hopeful" about COP21 even when his hero and mentor,
James Hansen is not.
This
seems to be part and parcel of being a pro-growth, pro-Obama liberal,
which I find pretty offensive.
A
pity, because I find Robertscribbler one of our best environmental
journalists.
My
own comment was this:
I
would have thought that if we were intellectually honest we would
take all the evidence together (from ALL disciplines) to draw
conclusions about where humanity is headed. It is not a case of
"giving up" but of conflict ting the implication of the
knowledge we have. Conclusions should follow from the evidence, not
from whether the conclusions are "productive" of not. I
understand why people tal about hopium.
!["A 3 1/2 min Video."The Its All OK Climate Rap Video".Talk is cheap + a climate denier fun section.
Of course Professor @[1268833217:2048:Guy McPherson] is in the video,the only truth teller.
Enjoy."](https://scontent.fakl1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/hvthumb-xpf1/v/t15.0-10/p370x247/12108488_142363112786529_771973926_n.jpg?oh=68ff0dcf35c3f98d0cbbdb591e58a262&oe=574765C4)
!["3 1/3 min Radio Excerpt *** Info for People Just Realizing the Dangers of Abrupt Climate Change
Climate expert spokesman/activist @[1013723414:2048:Kevin Hester] gives some important information on abrupt climate change.Listen to the story about a lost ship in the Arctic.
Here is the full interview http://www.planetaudio.org.nz/greenplanet/thursday/player"](https://scontent.fakl1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/hvthumb-xtf1/v/t15.0-10/50718_148764002146440_1874983413_n.jpg?oh=f99072418cb48b0d8bcc0f7b70521170&oe=570A5724)
Hey Robin,
ReplyDeleteYou're right about Scribbler.
He banned me last week from commenting on his blog when I raised the fact that COP21 was a fraud.
He hates the term Hopium.
He's brilliant at composing informative blog posts, but can't bring himself to accept that folks like you, Guy, Hansen are correct.
There is going to be absolutely no decrease in CO2 as a result of COP21.
And there was no mention of clathrates.
NTHE is coming up.
Peace to you.
You're so right. Would make a great study in the nature of denial.
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