Tuesday, 12 January 2016

Sailing through stormy waters - the world economy is grinding to a halt

More confirmation that the world economy – the real economy that is – is grinding to a halt.


The emphasis changes from day- to-day. One day it is World War 111; another it is dire news about abrupt climate change or the sixth mass extinction.

Today it is the collapse of the economy.

Just don't look for confirmation from television or your local newspaper.

China Orders Banks To Drop The U.S. Dollar

China have suspended their banks from the Foreign Exchange markets and ordered them to stop buying U.S. Dollars. 

China orders its banks to drop the US dollar


11 January, 2015


China’s foreign exchange regulator has ordered bank’s to limit the purchases of U.S. dollars for at least one month in an attempt to stem capital outflows.


The move comes as China reported its biggest annual drop in foreign exchange reserves on record in 2015, while the central bank has allowed a sharp slide in the Yuan currency to multi-year lows, raising fears of more capital flight.

All banks in certain trading hubs, including Shenzhen, received the order recently, the people added. They declined to be identified because they are not allowed to speak to the media.

The total amount of U.S. dollars sold to clients in January for a bank in one of these hubs cannot exceed the amount sold in December, according to the people.

They have asked us to limit our purchase amount and there are targets, but it mainly relates to institutions and enterprises, there is no change to the policy on individuals,” said one person.

Officials at State Administration of Foreign Exchange did not immediately respond to comment.

China also suspended forex business for some foreign banks, including Deutsche, DBS and Standard Chartered at the end of last year.

While three sources for this story claim they were told that this is an effort to stem the outflow of capital, a different source says something altogether different is taking place:  the belief in China that the US Dollar is now worthless and will soon totally collapse as a currency, leaving everyone who holds dollars, broke.  That’s why China is doing everything it can to shed US Dollar currency.  The way it’s being done, however, is a “useful guise” for the Chinese to prevent the collapse from taking place too early and leaving them stuck with trillions in useless US dollars.

CHINA ORDERS BANKS TO STOP PURCHASING U.S. DOLLARS

CHINA ORDERS BANKS TO STOP PURCHASING U.S. DOLLARS

In a stunning move, China has suspended some banks from Foreign Exchange markets and ordered other banks to stop buying Dollars.
China's foreign exchange regulator has ordered banks in some of the country's major import and export centers to limit purchases of U.S. dollars this month, three people with direct knowledge said, in the latest attempt to stem capital outflows.

The move comes as China reported its biggest annual drop in foreign exchange reserves on record in 2015, while the central bank has allowed a sharp slide in the Yuan currency to multi-year lows, raising fears of more capital flight.
All banks in certain trading hubs, including Shenzhen, received the order recently, the people added. They declined to be identified because they are not allowed to speak to the media.

The total amount of U.S. dollars sold to clients in January for a bank in one of these hubs cannot exceed the amount sold in December, according to the people. 
"They have asked us to limit our purchase amount and there are targets, but it mainly relates to institutions and enterprises, there is no change to the policy on individuals," said one person.

Officials at State Administration of Foreign Exchange did not immediately respond to comment.
China also suspended forex business for some foreign banks, including Deutsche, DBS and Standard Chartered at the end of last year.
While three sources for this story claim they were told that this is an effort to stem the outflow of capital, a different source says something altogether different is taking place:  the belief in China that the US Dollar is now worthless and will soon totally collapse as a currency, leaving everyone who holds dollars, broke.  
That's why China is doing everything it can to shed US Dollar currency.  The way it's being done, however, is a "useful guise" for the Chinese to prevent the collapse from taking place too early and leaving them stuck with trillions in useless US dollars. 

"Nothing Is Moving," Baltic Dry Crashes As Insiders Warn "Commerce Has Come To A Halt"



11 Janaury, 2015


The continued collapse of The Baltic Dry Index remains ignored by most - besides we still have Netflix, right? But, as Dollar Vigilante's Jeff Berwick details, it appears the worldwide 'real' economy has ground to a halt!!


Last week, I received news from a contact who is friends with one of the biggest billionaire shipping families in the world.  He told me they had no ships at sea right now, because operating them meant running at a loss.


This weekend, reports are circulating saying much the same thing: The North Atlantic has little or no cargo ships traveling in its waters. Instead, they are anchored. Unmoving. Empty.









Commerce between Europe and North America has literally come to a halt. For the first time in known history, not one cargo ship is in-transit in the North Atlantic between Europe and North America. All of them (hundreds) are either anchored offshore or in-port. NOTHING is moving.
This has never happened before. It is a horrific economic sign; proof that commerce is literally stopped.


We checked VesselFinder.com and it appears to show no ships in transit anywhere in the world.  We aren’t experts on shipping, however, so if you have a better site or source to track this apparent phenomenon, please let us know.




We also checked MarineTraffic.com, and it seemed to show the same thing.  Not a ship in transit…




If true, this would be catastrophic for world trade. Even if it’s not true, shipping is still nearly dead in the water according to other indices.  The Baltic Dry Index, an assessment of the price of moving major raw materials by sea, was already at record all-time lows a month ago... and in the last month it has dropped even more, especially in the last week. Today BDIY hit 415...



Factories aren’t buying and retailers aren’t stocking.  The ratio of inventory to sales in the US is an indicator of this. The last time that ratio was this high was during the “great recession” in 2008.




Hey, Ms. Yellen, what recovery? The economy is taking on water at a rapid rate.
The storm has been building for some time, actually. Not so long ago, there was a spate of reports that the world’s automobile manufacturers were in trouble because cars were not selling and shipments were backing up around the world.
ZeroHedge reported on it this way:







In the past several years, one of the topics covered in detail on these pages has been the surge in such gimmicks designed to disguise lack of demand and end customer sales, used extensively by US automotive manufacturers, better known as “channel stuffing”, of which General Motors is particularly guilty and whose inventory at dealer lots just hit a new record high.  

Here is a photo of unsold cars in the United Kingdom from that article.


The world’s economy seems in serious trouble. You can’t print your way to prosperity. All you are doing is hollowing out your economy. Draining it. And sooner or later it’s empty and you have to start over after a good deal of crisis and chaos.

It’s no coincidence that China is struggling desperately to contain a stock implosion.  Reportedly, banks have been told they are forbidden to buy US dollars and numerous Chinese billionaires have gone missing.  And the markets have just opened on Monday and are again deeply in the red.

Here at The Dollar Vigilante we’ve specialized in explaining the reality of the global faux-economy and why it’s important that you not believe mainstream media lies.

In the meantime, keep your eye on this shipping story!  If it is true and worldwide shipping is disastrously foundering, it’ll only be a matter of days before grocery store shelves will reflect that with increasingly bare shelves.

Are people upset now? Just wait. Interruptions in goods and services, most critically food, almost happened in 2008 during the Great Financial Crisis.  For three days worldwide shipping was stranded due to shipping companies not knowing whether or not the receiver’s bank credit was good.

That crisis was staved off due to a massive amount of money printing.  It was a temporary stay of execution, like bailing out the Titanic with coffee cups, however, and one that may reach much larger proportions in 2016.

Sailors watch the weather to see if it is safe to set sail.  Investors should be watching the economic climate with the same intensity.

We are already sailing through very stormy waters.


WTI Crude Collapses To $30 Handle, Stocks Plunge As Rate-Hike Odds Tumble






With rate hike odds for March plunging from over 55% a week ago to just 38% now, it appears faith in The Fed has utterly failed. WTI traded down to $30.97 - the lowest ssince Dec 2003.



Fed #Fail...

WTI punched lower to a $30 handle for the first time since December 2003..



and that has dragged stocks back into the red...



China's Hard Landing To Trigger Meltdown In India: "We Will See Another Crisis"






China stock slump deepens despite Beijing efforts


© Kim Kyung-Hoon
© Kim Kyung-Hoon / Reuters

RT,
11 January, 2016


The Shanghai Composite plummeted 5.33 percent on Monday, continuing last week’s nearly ten percent drop that erased all the gains of last year. The latest collapse came after the People's Bank of China surprised markets by announcing a stronger than expected yuan fixing.

The country's central bank set the yuan-dollar exchange rate at 6.5626 on Monday, which is lower than Friday’s 6.5636.

The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index fall was even steeper at 6.6 percent.


Chinese stocks have dragged down other Asian markets. Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Japan's Nikkei closed 2.76 and 0.39 percent down, respectively.

In the first week of 2016, China's central bank depreciated the yuan against the dollar by more than 1.5 percent. It is the biggest drop in the yuan exchange rate since August 2015, when the devaluation of the Chinese currency strongly affected global stock markets.

Key Russian indices are deep in the red on Monday, as well. The dollar-denominated RTS Index was down 4.36 percent, while the ruble-traded MICEX was losing 3.32 percent as of 2:00pm MSK.

European stocks advanced on Monday after their worst week since 2011. As of 10:40am GMT, London’s FTSE 100 was up 0.18 percent, while France’s CAC 40 rose 0.66 percent and the German DAX was 0.76 percent in the green.


The market reaction to what’s been happening in China has been hugely overdone,” Peter Dixon, Commerzbank AG’s global equities economist in London told Bloomberg.

The uncertainty hasn’t dissipated - it only takes one or two things to go wrong and we’re back to where we started - but investors are finally looking at things with a clearer head,” he said. 

Last week, Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicted the Shanghai Composite will plummet by nearly 30 percent in 2016.

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