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Robertscribbler, in tune with his ‘new’ approach starts with a paragraph that is then belied by the article that follows.
The very fact that we have methane 'spikes' is an indication that we now have warming that is no longer strictly speaking anthropogenic. The beast has its own momemtum. The horse has bolted so any admonition to close the gate is pointless.
The Ominous Greenhouse Gas Accumulation Continues: Peak Methane Approaches 3,000 Parts Per Billion as CO2 Growth Rate Jumps Higher
12
January, 2016
The
world finally appears like it’s slowly starting to wake up from the
grips of a fossil fuel influence-induced fever dream. Slowly, despite
endemic political meddling by these powerful entities, some changes
are starting to happen. Global carbon emissions growth remained flat
during 2014 and likely 2015. Renewable energy adoption ramped up.
Some major international commitments to reducing global carbon
emissions were made.
But
the very pertinent question must be asked — are we waking up fast
enough? And the still rapidly growing concentrations of
gasses that heat the Earth’s atmosphere would
seem to supply the answer in the form of a resounding, thunderous —
“NO!”
Another
Troubling Methane Spike
On
January 8th of 2016, we saw another record methane reading for the
global atmosphere. The most recent single point peak for NOAA’s
METOP measure hit
a new all-time atmospheric high of 2,963 parts per billion or just 37
parts per billion shy of the milestone 3,000 parts per billion
threshold.
(Another
record methane spike rockets its way toward the ominous 3,000 parts
per billion milestone in the NOAA METOP satellite array. The location
of the current spike appears to be in the region of the Arctic where
a number of very large carbon stores are now starting to warm up.
Image source: NOAA
OSPO.)
As
has been typical of this particular sensor array, peak methane
readings appear directly over the upper Latitudes of the Northern
Hemisphere — hinting that this particular spike may have been
generated by some Arctic amplifying feedback related carbon source.
It’s also worth noting that the array continues to pick up the
overall methane overburden pattern centered atop the Arctic. A
troubling overburden that has showed up in a number of sensor arrays
over recent years and has been one key bit of evidence pointing
toward a potential new trend of amplifying carbon feedbacks in the
Arctic.
Atmospheric
Methane Averages Continue Measured Upward Trend
In
the broader context, we continue to see rising average global methane
concentrations after a pause in atmospheric increases during the
1990s through the mid 2000s. This rate of increase is a sign that
either new human sources, new global feedbacks from methane sources,
or a combination of the two are pushing global totals higher. It is
worth noting that the lower Latitude measures like Mauna Loa,
however, did not pick up a signal that some kind of
major-to-catastrophic environmental methane emission was underway. A
situation some observational scientists fear may be possible, but
that other, more well-established specialists tend to consider far,
far less likely. Regardless of the current scientific conjecture,
heightened and rising methane readings in the Arctic remain rather
troubling.
To
these points, methane readings at Mauna Loa by end of 2015 had hit a
range of around 1855 parts per billion even as peak atmospheric
averages for the year had hit around 1840 parts per billion.
Continuing a general trend of rapid atmospheric methane accumulation
of about 7-8 parts per billion per year that started in 2008.
(Significant
rates of atmospheric methane increase that began during 2008 continue
in the ESRL/Mauna Loa measure. Though these rates of increase are
troubling, they do not at this time indicate that a major or
catastrophic release from the global environment has taken place.
Image source: NOAA
ESRL.)
Next
to CO2, methane generates the second strongest atmospheric heat
forcing. Its accumulation in the Earth’s atmosphere since the
beginning of major industrialization at the end of the 19th Century
has primarily been driven by a number of human sources — chiefly
through the activities of coal, oil and gas extraction, industrial
agriculture (meat farming), and waste accumulating in landfills.
During recent years, there has been some signal that global wetlands
— including the thawing permafrost zones of the world — are also
starting to contribute to the overall methane load as the world warms
up and the carbon cycle starts kicking into higher gear.
Rates
of Atmospheric CO2 Accumulation are Also Ramping Higher with El Nino
To
this point, rates of atmospheric CO2 accumulation (the
primary heat trapping gas in the atmosphere)
also appear to be ramping higher coincident with the influence of a
monster El Nino now taking place in the Pacific acting together with
global greenhouse gas emissions from human fossil fuel burning that
remain near all-time record highs. As large regions of the global
ocean warm, the ocean’s ability to act as a carbon sink becomes
inhibited. In more extreme cases, where the sea surface temperatures
of an ocean that’s already saturated with human-emitted carbon
become too warm, then CO2 starts to vent back into the atmosphere.
And with what is possibly the strongest El Nino on record occurring
coincident with a period of massive fossil fuel based carbon
emissions, impacts to the rate of atmospheric CO2 accumulation can
become quite dramatic.
It’s
for this reason that El Nino years in the context of massive,
human-based burning can see spiking global CO2 readings. And it
appears that just such an event may now be underway.
(Atmospheric
CO2 levels pushing rapidly above 400 parts per million is the ugly
legacy of human-based fossil fuel burning. Most recent two-year
section of the Keeling Curve shows a substantial accumulation of CO2
in the Earth’s atmosphere that is well above the current and
already very rapid average annual accumulation of 2.2 parts per
million each year. Image source: The
Keeling Curve.)
According
observations taken by Dr Ralph Keeling and fellow researchers at the
Mauna Loa Observatory, atmospheric CO2 concentrations jumped by more
than 3 parts per million from December of 2014 through December of
2015. This jump in concentration is pretty far in excess of average
annual rates of increase in the range of 2.2 parts per million CO2
each year that have been ongoing since the early-to-mid 2000s.
With
El Nino still ongoing, we should continue to see such ocean-warming
related impacts on atmospheric carbon dioxide levels continue into
2016. Impacts that may be further enhanced as another strong westerly
wind burst along the Equatorial Pacific will likely serve to
reinvigorate the current El Nino — making its already substantial
influence more long-lasting.
Links:
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Are we fucked, or just screwed?
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