Thursday, 27 September 2018

In sloppy journalism Radio NZ IMPLIES el-Nino is going to affect Northern Pacific, NOT NZ

This is an example of the most atrocious journalism from Radio New Zealand.  It is extremely sloppy at best, grossly misleading at worst.

They are citing American research which naturally emphasising conditions in their part of the world. 

But are Radio NZ trying to suggest that el-Nino conditions are going to be limited to the Northern Hemisphere?!!

It was intimated to me by an insider that Radio NZ have been instructed not to cover global warming unless there is a 'New Zealand angle'.

They are violating their own instructions.

El Niño highly likely in Northern Pacific this year - forecasters

There is a high probability of a new El Niño taking hold in the north Pacific later this year, according to US weather forecasters.

24 September, 2018

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Photo: supplied

Guam-based weather officials who track climate conditions in US-affiliated islands said Friday in a new report that there is a 60 percent chance of El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere in September-November, increasing to 70 percent during the winter of 2018-19.

For the Marshall Islands and eastern Micronesia, an El Niño usually causes extended draught and increases the likelihood of serious storms.

An "El Niño watch" by weather forecasters was triggered earlier this year in response to ocean warming that indicated El Niño conditions were brewing.

In addition, record-breaking rainfall in the Marshall Islands suggests development of El Niño conditions.

Rainfall for Majuro over the past 12 months set an all-time record high, while rain at Kwajalein from January to June was record-setting, according to Guam weather officials.

The new 12-month and six-month records wipe out previous records dating back to when rain data first began being collected in the mid-1950s. Twelve-month periods ending in July show that Majuro broke the 200-inch level for the first-time ever this past July.

Meanwhile, Kwajalein was deluged from January to June - a period that is normally the dry season. Its six-month total topped 80 inches, well above previous six-month rainfall records.

"Some weather features more typical of El Niño have recently occurred, including a very wet eastern Micronesia, several early season tropical disturbances in eastern Micronesia and some unusual westerly winds in eastern Micronesia (Marshall Islands, Pohnpei and Kosrae)," said the report.

"From Pohnpei and eastward, conditions were mostly wetter than average (during the first six months of 2018), with rainfall amounts at some of the atolls of the Marshall Islands - Kwajalein and Majuro - surging to new historical highs," the Guam weather report said.

"During July and August, the pattern of abundant rainfall in the east continued, with persistent dryness in the far west - Palau."

The report noted that high rainfall in August "has already pushed multi-month totals at Majuro and Kwajalein to ever higher record magnitudes, exceeding prior high marks by wide margins."


Of course, until the crisis hits it will always about 'somewhere else' - never New Zealand.

Here are some other articles.


4 September, 2018

Regional weather forecasters say a number of Pacific regions can expect below normal rainfall over the next three months.

They are New Caledonia, northern Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Tokelau, the northern Cook Islands and the Marquesas.

The forecasters said above normal rainfall for Solomon Islands was also expected.

They also said there was a significant chance of an El Nino weather system developing over the next few months.

El Nino means a warming of the tropical ocean which can lead to more intense storms.


20 August 2018


The Western Pacific region may be facing the resurgence of the El Niño weather condition later this year.

Guam-based weather official Charles Guard said there was about a 70 percent chance that the region would go into an El Niño this autumn or winter.

While it was not expected to be a strong El Niño, he said even a weak or moderate event would cause more storm activity in the Marshall Islands.

In addition to increased storm activity, El Niño conditions usually cause droughts in the Marshall Islands, which depends almost entirely on rainfall for their fresh water.

Demonstrating that 2018 had seen the weather "pendulum" swing away from El Niño and the droughts of 2016 and 2017, six of the first seven months generated rainfall levels higher than the monthly average, Mr Guard said.

The March to May period had over 157cms of rain - more than double the 68cm three month average - in what is usually the dry season.

During most of July and early August, the Marshall Islands experienced nearly a month of westerly trade wiinds - an unusual weather pattern in islands that normally have westerly winds only a few times a year and limited to a few days duration.

These weather conditions appear to be pushing the weather pendulum back toward El Niño.

If a moderate El Niño does swing into gear in the coming months, the Marshall Islands can expect increased storm activity in October and November for the southern islands and September and October for the northern islands, Mr Guard said.

"A strong typhoon is not likely under this scenario, but even weak ones can do significant damage in the Marshall Islands," he said.

The western Pacific experienced a relatively strong El Niño in 2016, with US President Barack Obama responding to a declaration of a drought emergency by the Marshall Islands government by issuing a "disaster declaration" in late April 2016 that paved the way for US federal funding of emergency drought aid.

Meanwhile, Guard said Guam weather officials, together with their colleagues at the Majuro Weather Service, were monitoring developments.


Hot Pacific Ocean is Primed to Produce Severe Cyclones From West to East




Robert Fanney

Warmer to much warmer than normal ocean temperatures have combined with high atmospheric water vapor to produce numerous intense tropical cyclones across the Pacific during 2018. Over the next ten days, there is the potential for two major typhoons to strike Japan and a tropical cyclone to strike the North American west coast.

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