year hurricane strength and course have become more difficult to
forecast and hurricanes are acting in strange ways.
A hurricane season like no other
The remnants of Hurricane Irma are not doing what forecasters thought. Weather experts believed the remnants would move northwest into Tennessee. Instead, they are moving west/southwest and now cover Mississippi, are entering Louisiana and heading back toward the Gulf!
One wonders if the storm could re-form upon entering Gulf Waters?
What is Jose doing?
|Above: GOES-16 view of Hurricane Jose at 10:15 am EDT September 12, 2017. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB. GOES-16 data is considered preliminary and non-operational.|
Intensity forecast for Jose
|Figure 1. The 20 track forecasts for Jose from the 0Z Tuesday, September 12, 2017 GFS model ensemble forecast. Twenty-five percent of the solutions resulted in an eventual landfall in the U.S., and another 40% did so in Canada. Image credit: CFAN.|
|Figure 2. The 0Z Tuesday September 12, 2017, track forecast by the operational European model for Irma (red line, adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary technique that accounts for storm movement since 0Z Tuesday), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble (heavy black line), and the track forecasts from the “high probability cluster” (grey lines)—the five European model ensemble members that have performed best with Jose thus far. A threat to Canada next week is the most likely outcome, according to these European model forecasts. Image credit: CFAN.|
Track forecast for Jose
Seeing a favorable trend in our Calibrated ECMWF EPS that takes Hurricane #Jose out to sea. Still worth watching, but good news nevertheless pic.twitter.com/WtG9wFoyOj
— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) September 12, 2017
Storm Aileen - the first named storm of this year - will bring strong winds to central parts of the UK this week.
#StormAileen has officially been named & will bring severe gales to central parts of the UK. More here http://bit.ly/2wUBhFX#WeatherAware
#weatheraware @metofficeuk #StormAileen
The storm names for 2017-18 have been announced, Aileen is first on the list. More here http://bit.ly/2xOwymS#NameOurStorms #WeatherAware
Charleston, S.C. Submerged by Irma Flooding
Despite being downgraded to a tropical storm, former hurricane Irma sent four feet (1.2 metres) of ocean water into downtown Charleston, South Carolina on Monday. (Sept. 12)
The United States Navy dispatched the USS Iwo Jima, USS New York and the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln to the Florida Keys help with search and rescue and other relief efforts.
President Trump sent the aircraft carrier and other Navy ships on Monday as a flyover of the hurricane-battered Keys yielded what the governor said were scenes of devastation. This gives all the Keys a fully functional airport - instantly - and numerous helicopters which will speed rescue efforts.
"I just hope everyone survived," Gov. Rick Scott said.
He said boats were cast ashore, water, sewers and electricity were knocked out, and "I don't think I saw one trailer park where almost everything wasn't overturned." Authorities also struggled to clear the single highway connecting the string of islands to the mainland.
The Keys felt Irma's full fury when the storm blew ashore as a Category 4 hurricane Sunday morning with 130 mph (209 kph) winds. How many people in the dangerously exposed, low-lying islands defied evacuation orders and stayed behind, was unclear.
Emergency managers in the islands declared on Monday "the Keys are not open for business" and warned that there was no fuel, electricity, running water or cell service and that supplies were low and anxiety high.
"HELP IS ON THE WAY," they promised on Facebook.
The Keys are linked by 42 bridges that have to be checked for safety before motorists can be allowed in, officials said. The governor said the route also needs to be cleared of debris and sand, but should be usable fairly quickly.
Over the next two days, Irma is expected to push to the northwest, into Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee.
People in the heavily populated Tampa-St. Petersburg area had braced for the first direct hit from a major hurricane since 1921. But by the time Irma arrived in the middle of the night Monday, its winds were down to 100 mph (161 kph) or less.
"When that sun came out this morning and the damage was minimal, it became a good day," said Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn.