(King World News) Gerald Celente: From geopolitics to socioeconomics, from environmental to technology, be it the body politic or personal health, as trend forecasters it is essential to have a clear understanding of where we are and the knowledge of how we got here to see where we are going…
For example, just one year ago, Chinese equity markets were in crash mode. The Shanghai Index, up 150 percent in a year, plummeted some 40 percent by mid-July 2015. In just one day, it had its second-biggest fall in its history. Following a summer that plunged Chinese markets into bear territory, global equity markets had their worst quarterly showing since 2011. It got worse.
Not only was there no Santa Claus rally in the United States, extending its downtrend momentum, on the last trading day of 2015, the Dow closed out the year down 178 points, capping its worst yearly performance since the Panic of ‘08. Then, to ring in the New Year, the Dow closed down 276 points… its worst-start-of-the-year performance since 2001, while closing out the worst first week of a new year in Dow Jones history.
From China to Japan, from the UK to France, stocks sank some 20 percent from 2015 highs by month’s end. Overall, some $15 trillion in global equity values had been lost.
As for the Brexit fallout, while the majority of economists and financiers now forecast slower growth in the UK as a result of the vote, Merry Old
England already was slipping into recession. Closing out the last quarter of 2015 with a Gross Domestic Product increase of just six-tenths of a percent, it slumped lower in 2016 with a GDP increase of just four-tenths of 1 percent… the slowest rate since the fourth quarter of 2012.
In Italy, desperate maneuvers by Eurozone officials and the Italian government are being considered to rescue its failing banking system, weighed down by high debt levels and bad loans.
We maintain our Panic of 2016 forecast for continued economic and equity-market turmoil. And, with gold at two-year highs, we also maintain our forecast that when prices stabilize above $1,400 per ounce, gold will spike toward $2,000 per ounce.