I should perhaps feel a sense of relief and gratitude that the NZ media and science organisations are STARTING to give some recognition to climate change.
However, the reality is I do not. This is still based on a consensus that is hopelessly behind the actual observational sciene, and still fails to take a systems approach as, say Paul Becckwith does.
I've given up any hope that anyone will have the courage to join the dots in the way Guy McPherson does.
However, here we go.
Ten things New Zealand can learn about climate change
6
July, 2016
1. Wellington
has the longest continuous carbon dioxide record in the Southern
Hemisphere.
The
measurement station at Baring Head at the mouth of Wellington
Harbour (now run by Niwa), and its predecessor at Makara on the
coast west of the city, have been measuring carbon isotopes since
the 1950s and carbon dioxide since the early 1970s.
The
only longer-running site is the famous Mauna Loa record in Hawaii,
started by Charles Keeling in the late 1950s.
2 The
last time we had a record cold year was 1909.
Temperatures
vary up and down from year to year, because of El Nino and La Nina
events, or in association with other natural influences.
But
the background trend has been upwards for all of the last century
and beyond.
The
warmest year in the observational record going back to the 1880s was
2015, and the previous record warm year was 2014.
Meanwhile,
2016 looks set to be the new record warm year.
The
coldest year on record since 1880 is 1909, 107 years ago.
Temperatures
today are so much higher than they were then that even a huge
volcanic eruption blocking out sunlight for months would not cool
the planet back to early 20th century values.
3 Almost
100 per cent of scientists are certain that global warming is
human-induced.
In
the game of attributing global warming to humankind's use of fossil
fuels, scientists are almost 100 per cent certain.
The
reason that the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) report says "the human influence on the climate system
is clear" with 99 per cent certainty is due to a technical rule
-- they have agreed that "cause and effect statements"
must allow for a slight uncertainty.
The
facts are that the present levels of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere have not been seen for three million years on planet
Earth.
At
that time the world was on average two to three degrees warmer, and
global sea levels were at least 10m higher.
The
carbon we have been adding to the atmosphere has a chemical
signature of fossil wood - coal, oil and gas. It is not from
volcanic eruptions.
Oxygen
levels in the atmosphere have been declining as carbon dioxide
levels have increased, due to the combustion of oxygen by burning
fossil fuels. And finally the radiative effects of carbon dioxide
and methane as powerful greenhouse gases has been known for more
than a century.
The
physics is beyond question.
Skeptics
would do well to stop wasting their energy, and distracting the
public and scientists by trying to deconstruct this scientific
truth, and join the rest of humanity in helping figure out what to
do about climate change.
4 The
tropics are expanding.
The
tropics hold most of the heat in the climate system, and as things
warm, the tropical belt is expanding slightly.
And,
the atmosphere is getting deeper.
The
region of warmest tropical waters, north of Australia, where sea
temperatures are above 28C, has got 20 per cent bigger in the past
60 years.
Some
of that warm water runs down the east coast of Australia and then
across the Tasman to New Zealand.
Sea
temperatures have risen really fast off the southeast of Australia
and near Tasmania, as the East Australian Current has strengthened.
Some
of that warm water may be heading our way.
5 Ninety-three
per cent of the heat and 24 per cent of the carbon dioxide from
humankind's use of fossil fuels has gone into the ocean.
While
the ocean is slowing the pace of warming, putting gas and heat in
the ocean has other unintended consequences.
The
ocean is warming, especially the Southern Ocean which is melting the
edges of the Antarctic ice sheet, contributing to sea-level rise.
As
the ocean warms it also expands and this has caused half of the
sea-level rise observed during the 20th and 21st centuries.
Once
the heat is in the ocean it will take centuries to remove it.
This
commits us to long term sea-level rise.
6 The
polar regions warm twice as much as the rest of the planet.
This
phenomenon, known as polar amplification, is a concern because 70
per cent of the world's fresh water is locked up in the polar ice
sheets, and if it all melted it would lead to the equivalent of 60m
sea level rise from Antarctic and 7m from Greenland.
Powerful
climate feedbacks, associated with sea-ice, are already expressing
themselves in the Arctic, with Arctic ocean summer sea-ice expected
to be all gone by as soon as 2050.
The
replacement of white ice with dark ocean absorbing even more heat is
a powerful amplifier of regional atmospheric warming.
The
Antarctic Peninsula has warmed 0.5C per decade for the last 50 years
-- the fastest-warming place on the planet -- and ice shelves are
collapsing catastrophically.
7 Global
sea-level predictions might be on the low side.
The
latest science suggests that the contribution from Antarctic ice
sheets may be underestimated in predictions of future sea-level rise
to the end of the century and beyond made in the recent IPCC report.
The
new ice sheet melting models add as much as 80cm of additional
sea-level rise to the upper bound projection of at least 1m by the
year 2100 made by the IPCC.
Of
even more concern is that with 30cm of sea-level rise expected by
2050, the 100-year coastal flooding event will be happening every
year in some parts of New Zealand, such as Dunedin city.
8 The
Paris Agreement is a huge ask.
The
Paris climate agreement was a major diplomatic success with the
world's nations agreeing to limit global warming to no more than 2C
above pre-industrial levels.
However,
achieving the ambition of Paris is an enormous challenge.
If
each national pledge to reduce green house gas emissions is acted on
this will limit global warming to about 2.7C.
So
even more action is required, and low-lying island countries and
African nations have requested 1.5C be achieved as 2C is too much
for them.
More
disturbing is that current policy settings, including New Zealand's,
have us on target for 3.5C global warming.
To
achieve the 2C target, emissions must peak very soon and all
emissions of carbon dioxide must be reduced to zero before the end
of the century. Business as usual will have us at 2C by 2035.
9 New
Zealand's per capita emissions are well above the global average.
We
often hear that New Zealand's emissions are so small that we can't
make any difference in the world.
But
every group of 4.5 million people in the world could say that.
Per
head of population, our emissions are in the top 10 globally.
Although
agricultural emissions are a big part of the story, the biggest
growth in emissions in recent decades has been in transport and
energy production/industry, so there are plenty of avenues for
reduction.
10 New
Zealand is well placed to make significant greenhouse gas reductions
by transferring to a low-carbon economy.
Zero
emissions of carbon dioxide by the end of the century can be
achieved for all sectors of society and the economy except
agriculture.
Agriculture
accounts for 50 per cent of New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions
and, while efficiencies are being made, these are being offset by
increased production.
Significant
reductions require major economic trade-offs with livestock
productivity, and given the dependence of our economy on the primary
production sector, this is unlikely in the short term.
A
goal of 90 to 100 per cent renewable electricity generation by 2025
is achievable through more wind, solar and hydro, and a national
smart grid where distributed electricity generation can be fed in,
as well as improving efficiency of existing generation.
Arguably
the biggest opportunity for reductions is in the transport sector,
where a transition to more efficient vehicles, including electric
vehicles, use of public transport and coastal shipping and rail
transport for freight would greatly reduce emissions.
New
Zealand needs a functioning carbon pricing mechanism, whether that
be a tax or emissions trading scheme that works to incentivise
change.
New
Zealand is well placed to lead the way internationally to a thriving
low carbon economy with all the co-benefits of energy security and
independence, more livable cities, leaders in new green-tech
industries powering economic growth, and increased sustainability
and resilience to climate change.
The
recent report by the Royal Society lays out the opportunities for
transitioning New Zealand to a low carbon society and economy.
Professor Tim Naish and James Renwick speaking tour
Napier: 6pm
Wednesday, July 6, Century Theatre, MTG, 9 Herschell Street
Palmerston
North: 7.30pm
Thursday, July 7, Palmerston North Public Library, 4 The Square
Christchurch: 6.30pm
Wednesday, August 3, C1 LT, Central Lecture Theatre Block,
University of Canterbury, Arts Road
Dunedin: 5.30pm.
Thursday August 4, Hutton Theatre, Otago Museum, 419 Great King
Street
Wanaka: 6pm
Friday, August 5, Presbyterian Church Hall, 91 Tenby Street
Auckland: 6pm
Tuesday September 6, The Auditorium, Level 2 Auckland Museum, The
Domain, Parnell
Wellington: 6pm
Wednesday September 7, Aronui Lecture Theatre, Royal Society of New
Zealand, 11 Turnbull Street, Thorndon
Nelson: 7.30pm Thursday, September 8, Elim Christian Centre, 625 Main Road, Stoke
Nelson: 7.30pm Thursday, September 8, Elim Christian Centre, 625 Main Road, Stoke
•
For
more information,
visit http://www.royalsociety.org.nz/events/ten-by-ten/ten-by-ten-climate-change
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