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The 10th March seemed to be a day of major headlines about abrupt climate change.
One of the news was good.
One of the news was good.
Global
temperatures could rise 1.5 degrees by 2020, researchers say
University of Queensland solar and biofuels expert Professor Ben Hankamer. Photo: Supplied
SMH,
10
March, 2016
Global
temperatures could rise 1.5 degrees in the next five years, much
faster than previously thought, according to new modelling.
A
landmark climate
deal struck in Paris last
year saw almost 200 countries agree to work to limit temperature
rises to "well below two degrees" and work towards limiting
the increase to 1.5 degrees.
But
findings from Queensland researchers published on Thursday predicted
that barrier would be reached by 2020 if the status quo was
maintained.
The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted a global mean
surface temperature rise of 0.3°C to 0.7°C from 2016 to 2035 in its
2014 report.
A
solar and biofuels expert from the University of Queensland and an
energy economist from Griffith University took the novel approach of
calculating carbon dioxide emissions per person, factoring in
reactions to increases in energy efficiencies.
UQ
Professor Ben Hankamer said even as technologies improved to deliver
energy more efficiently, attempts to drag billions of people out of
poverty would mean more people needed more energy.
"What
politicians will often say, is they want to have constant economic
growth, they want poverty alleviation," he said.
"Both
of those things require more energy therefore there's going to be an
increased demand … (and) you're going to start going up more
quickly and as a result you're going to be releasing CO2 more
quickly.
"A
lot of the models don't take this individual energy use into
consideration and so as a result they don't show that same effect."
Professor
Hankamer and Griffith energy economist Liam Wagner's research
combined predictions of increases in population, economic growth and
rising energy use per person with existing models used to determine
the effects of CO2 emissions on temperature rise.
"Normally
when you have more efficient processes, the assumption is you're
going to start saving more energy," Professor Hankamer said.
"The
bit (other researchers often) weren't taking into consideration is
because things become cheaper and because we can, we buy more stuff."
Professor
Hankamer called for governments to focus on the transition from
fossil fuels to renewable energy if there was to be any chance of
constraining warming and lifting people out of poverty.
"There
are estimates of about $500 billion in fossil fuel subsidies being
provided every year and maybe a cost-neutral solution would be to
start thinking about transitioning some of that funding towards the
renewable sector," he said, adding "you either have the
choice of enforcing people into poverty or you transition from fossil
fuels into renewables."
Global
warming could occur more quickly than expected, according to a new
model by University of Queensland and Griffith University
researchers.
Rate
Of Climate Change To Soar By 2020s, With Arctic Warming 1°F Per
Decade
Joe
Romm
10
March, 2016
New research from
a major national lab projects that the rate of climate change, which
has risen sharply in recent decades, will soar by the 2020s. This
worrisome projection — which has implications for extreme weather,
sea level rise, and permafrost melt — is consistent with
several recent
studies.
The
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) study, “Near-term
acceleration in the rate of temperature change,”
finds that by 2020, human-caused warming will move the Earth’s
climate system “into a regime in terms of multi-decadal rates of
change that are unprecedented for at least the past 1,000 years.”
In
the best-case scenario PNNL modeled, with atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentrations stabilizing at about 525 parts per million
(the RCP4.5 scenario),
the four-decade warming trend hits 0.45°F (0.25°C) per decade. That
means over a 4-decade period, the Earth would warm 1.8°F (4 x 0.45)
or 1°C (4 x 0.25). This is a faster multi-decadal rate than the
Earth has seen in at least a millennium.
Because
of Arctic
amplification,
the most northern latitudes warm two times faster (or more) than the
globe as a whole does. As this figure from the study shows, the rate
of warming for the Arctic is projected to quickly exceed 1.0°F
(0.55°C) per decade.
The
decadal rate of temperature change for 40-year periods over various
regions — if humanity takes moderate climate action. Rates of
change are averages over land plus ocean in each region. Via PNNL.
Such
rapid Arctic warming would be ominous for several reasons. First, it
would likely speed up the already staggering rate of loss of Arctic
sea ice. Second, if, as considerable
recent research suggests,
Arctic amplification has already contributed to the recent jump in
extreme weather, then the next few decades are going to be utterly
off the chats.
Third,
such rapid Arctic warming implies that the rapidly-melting Greenland
ice sheet — already made
unstable by
human-caused warming — is likely to start disintegrating even
faster, which in turn will push sea level rise higher than previously
estimated,
upwards of six feet this century.
Fourth,
such rapid warming would serve to accelerate the release of vast
amounts of carbon from defrosting permafrost — the dangerous
amplifying carbon cycle which has
already been projected to
add up to 1.5°F to total global warming by 2100.
There
is, of course, “internally generated variability” in the Earth’s
climate system — which has been linked to variability in the
Pacific Ocean — that can cause the rate of warming to slow down or
speed up for a decade (and occasionally longer). That was the point
of a February
study on
what has mistakenly been called the “hiatus” in global warming.
That
hiatus was in fact merely an apparent slowdown
in the rate of
warming, primarily found in the U.K. Met Office’s dataset. But the
Met Office uses the Hadley temperature record, which excludes
the Arctic (!)
— the very place on the planet that has been warming the fastest.
When scientists incorporated Arctic warming into the Met/Hadley
record using other data sources (such as the satellites), the
slowdown all but vanished.
With
2014 setting the record for warmest year, NASA (and NOAA) data make
crystal clear that there was no
actual pause even
in the rate of warming, as this NASA chart shows:
NASA
temperature data how neither a recent “pause” in surface
temperature warming or even been a significant change in trend.
The
new study makes clear that the only “pause” there has been was in
the long-expected acceleration of warming. That is, while the rate of
global warming has been roughly constant for the last few decades, it
should have started to speed up (see chart below). But multiple
studies,
include this latest one, say that we should expect a speed up very
soon.
The
new study notes that when the “variability-driven” apparent
slowdown ends, “we also show that there is an increased likelihood
of accelerated global warming associated with release of heat from
the sub-surface ocean and a reversal of the phase of decadal
variability in the Pacific Ocean.”
Here
is what has happened so far — and what we can expect if we keep
taking little or no action to reduce carbon pollution (the RCP8.5
scenario):
Global
rates of decadal temperature change over 40-year periods. Results are
shown for: central climate assumptions (thick solid line), range due
to uncertainty in aerosol forcing (grey shading), and range due to
uncertainty in climate sensitivity (blue shading). The outer bounding
cases are shown as dotted lines. The thin solid black line shows the
historical rate of change using the HADCRU4 observational data. The
vertical dashed line indicates 2014. Via PNNL.
This
chart shows that the observed decadal warming rate (temperature rise
per decade) has been constant for the past decade in the Met/Hadley
record. While this is within the range of model uncertainty, the
study suggests it should have kept increasing. Many recent
studies project
that will happen very soon — and indeed it may
already have started.
In
the do-little RCP8.5 scenario, the rate of warming post-2050 becomes
so fast that it is likely to be beyond adaptation for most species —
and for humans in many parts of the world. The warming rate in the
central case hits a stunning 1°F per decade — Arctic warming would
presumably be at least 2°F per decade. And this goes on for decades.
No
rational civilization would ever risk anything like that happening.
Nor would they even risk the “moderate” warming of the RCP4.5
case. So let’s not!
CO2
levels make largest recorded annual leap, Noaa data shows
The
last time the Earth saw such a sustained increase was over 11
millennia ago, says US science agency. Climate Home reports
10
March, 2016
Fossil
fuel burning and a strong El Niño weather pattern pushed CO2 levels
3.05 parts per million (ppm) on a year earlier to 402.6 ppm, as
measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) said on
Wednesday.
“Carbon
dioxide levels are
increasing faster than they have in hundreds of thousands of years,”
said Pieter Tans, lead scientist at Noaa’s Global Greenhouse Gas
Reference Network. “It’s explosive compared to natural
processes.”
The
big jump in CO2 broke a record held since 1998, also a powerful El
Niño year.
Drought
and erratic rainfall caused less carbon to be stored by parched
forests and drylands, on top of the effect of fossil fuel emissions,
Noaa said.
CO2
levels in the air have increased over 40% since 1880, as industry
ramped up emissions. The build-up of those gases traps heat, which
warm the planet and stoke extreme weather. Last year was the hottest
year on record, according to multiple weather agencies.
The
last time the Earth experienced such a sustained CO2 rise was between
11,000 and 17,000 years ago, in which period CO2 jumped by 80ppm.
Today’s rate is 200 times faster, said Tans.
Scientists
at the remote Hawaii site have plotted global CO2 levels since 1958,
in what is known as the Keeling Curve.
The
annual growth rate of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose more in
2015 than scientists have ever seen in a single year, the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday.
It
was the fourth year in a row that carbon dioxide concentrations grew
by more than 2 parts per million, with an annual growth rate of 3.05
parts per million in 2015. The spike comes in the same year that
Earth reached an ominous global warming milestone -- scientists last
year measured the highest atmospheric concentrations of carbon
dioxide ever recorded.
Alex
Smith of Radio Eco Shock interviews Dr. Peter Gleick
Extreme
Arctic Fear
Abrupt
warming in Arctic could lead to catastrophic consequences says top
scientist Dr. Peter Gleick, ICCI Director Pam Pearson, and the
founder of Paleoceanography, Dr. James Kennett. Three must-listen
interviews
This interview was done in January.
Professor Kevin Anderson - Impacts Of Climate Change
In
this extended interview, Deputy Director of the Tyndall Centre on
Climate Change, Professor Kevin Anderson discusses a wide range of
issues relating to climate change, associated impacts, policy and
social implications.
Professor
Anderson speaks very lucidly about the mistakes that have been made
regarding economic policy, such as bailing out the banks when a true
stimulus could have been achieved by giving the capital directly to
the people in order to increase residence and energy efficiency in
our homes. The effects of a policy of this nature would have created
jobs and a true value stimulus.
Professor
Anderson also speaks about climate engineering emphasising that we
must do the research but there can be no climate engineering without
real cuts to emissions. If we have to wilfully engineer our climate
then it must be done hand in hand with curbing emissions.
This
interview was conducted by Mike Coe and gratefully shared with
Envisionation
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