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Planet’s Temperature Just Reached a Terrifying Milestone
By
Eric Holthaus
12
March, 2016
NASA
has confirmed that our planet's temperature surged in February
2016—past a major milestone. - NASA
Update,
March 12, 2016:
Data released
Saturday from
NASA confim that February 2016 was not only the warmest month ever
measured globally, at 1.35 degrees Celsius above the long-term
average—it was more than 0.2 degrees Celsius warmer than the
previously most unusually warm month ever measured: January 2016. The
new NASA data confirms unofficial data released earlier this month
showing a dramatic and ongoing surge in the planet's temperature—if
anything, that data, upon which the previous versions of this post
were based, were an underestimate. On Twitter, Gavin Schmidt, the
director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, which
maintains the NASA temperature database, noted that
February’s temperature record was “special” and commented
simply:
“Wow.”
NASA’s
global temperature data is measured from a 1951-1980 baseline, about
0.3 degrees warmer
than pre-industrial levels. That means February 2016 was the first
month in history that global average temperatures passed the 1.5
degree Celsius mark. Also, since last month’s warmth was
concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere (2.76 degrees Celsius warmer
than the 1951-1980 baseline) and the Arctic (5.36 degrees Celsius
warmer than the 1951-1980 baseline), these regions of our planet
were also record warm, likely the warmest they’ve been for at least
thousands of years. As I said in the previous version of this
post—even though this surge of warmth is likely only temporary, it
is a major milestone moment for humanity and our relationship to our
planet.
A
daily analysis of global temperatures shows the Northern Hemisphere
likely exceeded 2 degrees Celsius above "normal" around
March 1, 2016, when measuring from pre-industrial levels.* - Ryan
Maue/Weatherbell Analytics
Update,
March 3, 2016:
Since this post was originally published, the heat wave has
continued. As of Thursday morning, it appears that average
temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere have breached the 2
degrees Celsius above “normal” mark for the first time in
recorded history, and likely
the first time since
human civilization began thousands of years ago.* That mark has long
been held (somewhat
arbitrarily) as the point above which climate change may begin to
become "dangerous"
to humanity. It's now arrived—though very briefly—much more
quickly than anticipated. This is a milestone moment for our species.
Climate change deserves our greatest possible attention.
Global
temperatures hit a new all-time record high in February, shattering
the old record set just last month amid a record-strong El Niño. Ryan
Maue/Weatherbell Analytics
Original
post, March 1, 2016: Our
planet’s preliminary February temperature data are in, and it’s
now abundantly clear: Global warming is
going into overdrive.
There
are dozens of global temperature datasets, and usually I (and my
climate journalist colleagues) wait until the
official ones are
released about the middle of the following month to announce a
record-warm month at the global level. But this month’s data is so
extraordinary that there’s no need to wait: February obliterated
the all-time global temperature record set
just last month.
Using
unofficial data and adjusting for different base-line temperatures,
it appears that February 2016 was likely somewhere
between 1.15 and 1.4
degrees warmer
than the long-term average, and about 0.2 degrees above last
month—good enough for the most above-average month ever measured.
(Since the globe had already warmed by about +0.45 degrees above
pre-industrial levels during the 1981-2010 base-line meteorologists
commonly use, that amount has been added to the data released today.)
Keep
in mind that it took from the dawn of the industrial age until
last October to
reach the first 1.0 degree Celsius, and we’ve come as much as an
extra 0.4 degrees further in just the last five months. Even
accounting for the margin of error associated with these preliminary
datasets, that means it’s virtually certain that February handily
beat the record set just last month for the most anomalously warm
month ever recorded. That’s stunning.
It
also means that for many parts of the planet, there basically wasn’t
a winter. Parts of the Arctic were more than 16 degrees Celsius (29
degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than “normal” for the month of
February, bringing them a few degrees above freezing, on par with
typical June levels, in what is typically the coldest month of the
year. In the United States, the winter was record-warm in
cities coast to coast. In Europe and Asia, dozens of countries set
or tied their
all-time temperature records for February. In the tropics, the
record-warmth is prolonging the longest-lasting
coral bleaching episode ever seen.
Zack Labe
The
northernmost permanent settlement, Norway’s Svalbard
archipelago, has
averaged 10
degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal this winter,
with temperatures rising above the freezing mark on nearly two dozen
days since Dec. 1. That kind of extremely unusual weather has
prompted a record-setting
low maximum in Arctic sea ice,
especially in the Barents Sea area north of Europe.
The
data for February is so overwhelming that even prominent climate
change skeptics have already embraced the new record. Writing on
his blog,
former NASA scientist Roy Spencer said that according to satellite
records—the dataset of choice by climate skeptics for
a variety of reasons—February
2016 featured “whopping” temperature anomalies especially in the
Arctic. Spurred by disbelief, Spencer also checked his data with
others released today and said the overlap is “about as good as it
gets.” Speaking with the Washington
Post, Spencer
said the
February data proves “there has been warming. The question is how
much warming there’s been.”
Of
course, all this is happening in the context of a
record-setting El Niño,
which tends to boost global temperatures for as
much as six or eight months beyond
its wintertime peak—mainly because it takes that long for excess
heat to filter its way across the planet from the tropical Pacific
Ocean. But El Niño isn’t entirely responsible for the absurd
numbers we’re seeing. El Niño’s influence on the Arctic still
isn’t well-known and
is likely small. In fact, El
Niño’s influence on global temperatures as a whole is
likely small—on the order of 0.1 degree Celsius or so.
So
what’s actually happening now is the liberation of nearly two
decades’ worth of global warming energy that’s
been stored in the oceans since
the last major El Niño in 1998.
Bill McKibben
Watch out! Satellite data shows Feb setting crazy heat records. 'Whopping,' says Dr. Spencer http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/03/uah-v6-global-temperature-update-for-feb-2016-0-83-deg-c-new-record/ …
Numbers
like this amount to a step-change in our planet’s climate system.
Peter Gleick, a climate scientist at the Pacific Institute in
Oakland, California, said it’s difficult to compare the current
temperature spike: “The old assumptions about what was normal are
being tossed out the window … The old normal is gone.”
Almost
overnight, the world has moved within arm’s reach of the climate
goals negotiated just
last December in Paris.
There, small island nations on the front line of climate change set a
temperature target of no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius rise by the
year 2100 as a
line in the sand,
and that limit was embraced by the global community of nations. On
this pace, we may reach that level for the first time—though
briefly—later this year. In fact, at
the daily level,
we’re probably already there. We could now be right in the heart
of a
decade or more surge in global warming that
could kick off a
series of tipping points with
far-reaching implications on our species and the countless others we
share the planet with.
*Correction,
March 4, 2016: Due
to a
data error at Weatherbell Analytics, the
graphic added in the March 3 update to this post showed that in
recent days, the temperature had reached approximately 2.5 degrees
Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The graphic has been replaced
with an updated version showing a less dramatic temperature spike, to
approximately 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, though
still exceeding 2 degrees Celsius when measured from pre-industrial
levels. This spike has
been reproduced in a separate dataset,
so there remains high confidence that the 2-degree level was
breached.
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