Tuesday 22 December 2015

Weather extremes across the Northern Hemisphere

Moscow goes mild: Winter temperatures break 33yo warmth record




Winters in Russia are usually not for the faint of heart. From temperatures buried in the negatives to cities grinding to a halt due to snowfall, it’s essential you’re winter-ready. This year though, it’s panned out a little differently.

People may not be basking in sunshine but with Monday temperatures in Moscow and St. Petersburg at 9 Celsius (48.2 Fahrenheit), it’s certainly milder than people are used to. Social media has been alight with imagery that wouldn’t look out of place in spring time Russia, with trees blossoming and normally snow-laden landscapes now green.

Winter has gone from Moscow ten days before the New Year.

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With average Moscow temperatures for December 2014 around -4 Celsius, Muscovites enjoyed warmer weather on Monday morning than the likes of New York (9C) and even Rome (8C), where Italians were practically freezing while eating their gelato. On Monday, Moscow temperatures broke the 33-year-old warmth record.














The milder winter temperatures come following a record breaking 25C in September, the highest in 90 years.


While some parts of Russia are certainly enjoying fewer snow-filled days, not everyone is as lucky. Places like Tyumen Region are enduring their expectedly cold temperatures and snow-covered lands, although it does result in some nice, albeit cold, sunsets.



Snowman in Kaliningrad (Russia) - the new normal...




Dreaming of a white Christmas? Chances are you're not going to get it in Sweden, which has been enjoying an unusually balmy run-up to the holiday season.


Bocking Essex by Mark Draper.


Santon Downham in Suffolk and Bedford both had record-breaking December temperatures over the weekend.
  • Santon Downham reached 16.0C on Saturday.
  • Bedford reached 15.7C on Saturday.
The warmest place in the Anglia region was Writtle, Essex at 16.4C on Saturday.

The highest ever December temperature in England was 17.7C recorded in Chivenor, (Devon) in 1985 and Penkridge, (Staffordshire) in 1994.

This December is well on course to warmest on record in the Anglia region.



North America

December 25, 2015: Extreme weather for North America, with temperatures as low as 30.6°F or -0.8°C in California and as high as 71.5°F or 22°C in North Carolina.



" 2,600 daily record high temperatures that have been tied or broken across the Lower 48 in the first 19 days of the month."


December 21, 2015

Record-breaking warmth for late-December standards will grip much of the central and eastern states Christmas week, continuing what has already been a very mild month in those regions. Several cities in the East will likely see their warmest Christmas Eve or Christmas Day on record, adding to the more than 2,600 daily record high temperatures that have been tied or broken across the Lower 48 in the first 19 days of the month.

This mild forecast means the prospect for a white Christmas is highly unlikely for many east of the Rockies. 

Spain

Freak Wildfire Outbreak Strikes Northern Spain During Winter




Over the weekend an unexplained wildfire outbreak erupted across the Asturias and Cantabria regions of Northern Spain. In total, more than 100 blazes flared as 60 mile-per-hour winds and freakishly warm temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s (Fahrenheit — 15 to 20 degrees Celsius) spread across Spain’s northern coastal provinces.




More than 200 firefighters responded to the strange outbreak — one all-too-certainly linked to record warm global temperatures in the range of 1.06 C above 1880s averages. Fortunately, there are currently no reports of injuries or loss of property or life. Just an odd and somewhat terrifying mass wildfire eruption occurring in typically damp North Spain at a time near the Winter Solstice.
Another Abnormal Winter Wildfire Event

Though the cause of these fires has yet to be officially determined, temperatures in the range of 9-18 degrees Fahrenheit (5-10 C) above average and very strong winds — gusting up to 60 miles per hour — likely contributed to this anomalous winter wildfire outbreak. This warm air flow was pulled northward along the eastern edge of a powerful Atlantic weather pattern that, through most of Fall and Winter, has been hurling strong storms into Iceland, coastal France, the United Kingdom, and Scandinavia. These warm winds gained extreme intensity on Saturday and Sunday and likely sparked and fanned the wildfires (in much the same manner that Santa Anna winds risk wildfires in California).
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(On Saturday and Sunday, powerful southerly winds and abnormally warm temperatures swept over Northern Spain — setting the stage for a freak mass wildfire outbreak during winter time. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

It is not usual at all for wildfires to occur during Winter anywhere in Spain, especially not along the northern coastal regions where cool, wet weather tends to prevail as December transitions into January. But this year the typical rainfall pattern has been interspersed with warm, windy periods and comes at the end of a long, much hotter than normal year. A heat that has almost certainly contributed to a fire year that, for Spain, has resulted in the burning of more acres during 2015 than for all of the previous two years combined.

As with other recent large Winter wildfire outbreaks, the influence of a human-forced warming of the global climate system is writ large. Winter wildfire outbreaks, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, are becoming more frequent — with some major winter wildfire outbreaks even extending to regions near or above the Arctic Circle. Fires that are upshots to an overall extension of the fire season combined with a much greater frequency of wildfire outbreak. It’s trend that comes both from a larger warming of the Earth’s climate system. And not only does the added heat itself fuel a higher frequency of wildfire outbreak, it also increases drought intensity and the speed of drought onset — which generates a compounding factor for increasing wildfire frequency.

Major news media sources reporting on these incidents have yet to make this all-too-obvious link. And, given continued sparse analysis on human forced climate change as a whole, it’s questionable that they ever will.
Links:
Hat Tip to Wharf Rat



The Big Apple is heating back up, with temperatures expected to top 70 degrees on Christmas Eve.

After a cold weekend, temps will begin a climb on Monday to 56 degrees.

Rain is expected Tuesday, the first day of winter, with a high of 63 degrees.

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