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A "master of political alchemy": Putin's speech points the way forward for Russia and the world
Translated
for Fort Russ by J. Arnoldski
Perhaps
the main feature of today’s address by Vladimir Putin was his
emphasis on the fact that Russia and Russians need to change. The
year 2015 is coming to a close, and this year was very important in
terms of understanding who we are, where we are going, and what we
want from the political leadership of our country.
After
the momentous year of 2014, when the elite and the people together
decided that it is time for the country to regain the status of a
superpower, it was very important to ensure that we, the country,
the people, and the political elite, are ready to pay for history.
Independence, self-esteem, and the right to decide one’s fate are
very expensive. The calculation of our enemies was simple and
pragmatic: the Russians, realizing that one can’t lay on soft
cushions for eternity, will prefer the dream of parmesan and black
bread than being builders of a great empire. After all, the most
recent incarnation of the Russian Empire was betrayed in exchange
for jeans and Coca-Cola - well, what can be worse than parmesan?
This
time, the script didn’t work. Over the course of 2015, Russians
have not repented of their choice, and the Russian managerial elite
have finally consolidated themselves around the president. In word
and deed, Russia has confirmed its application to participate in
the redivision of the world order. The decision to return Crimea
was made and secured. There is no turning back and not it is
possible to talk seriously about global stakes, goals, and methods
of accomplishing them.
Putin
very clearly outlined that we live in a time of the creation of new
trading blocs and the development of new breakthrough technologies,
and the position of Russia in the context of these processes will
determine its future place in the global division of labor.
Occupying a decent place in the world of the future is the main
challenge for our country.
Despite
the howls of liberal and pseudo-patriotic propaganda, the Russian
government is persistently trying to inform the public of one very
important idea: there will be no “hot war.” Liberal-Westerners
are frightening society with the prospect of a preemptive strike on
the United States and demand that we surrender won this basis.
Pseudo-patriots are whipping up hysterics and are frightening
society with the inevitability of a global “hot war” for which
Russia is allegedly not ready. They blame Putin for the lack of
“mobilization,” but coming from the mouths of pseudo-patriots
this only means that they are unhappy with the fact that Putin does
want to support on a life basis an ardent, bawling blogger and is
not personally giving them a Mauser and the right to kill his
personal ideological opponents.
There
will be no hot global war, as in present circumstances this would
result in causing unacceptable damage to all participants.
We have to live and win an era of hybrid wars which measures the
value of the military, economic, technological, and informational
components of the enemy.
In
order to occupy a worthy place in the post-war structure of the
world, Russia needs to change, to transform, and grow out of
itself. The President did not recall Mendeleev in vain. The text of
the presidential message is some kind of “periodic table of
Putin.” Vladimir Putin marked those elements one after another
which will shape the future of our country.
These
elements should be considered in more detail.
Self-esteem
and Tranquility
These
two elements should be inextricably linked and balances, otherwise
our opponents will be able to carry out successful provocations
with serious consequences against us. If we are too calm and do not
react to external stimuli, then they will beat is with impunity,
and if we maintain our self-esteem only on the basis of emotions,
then we will repeatedly fall into traps and look as stupid as
Erdogan looks now. Once again,the audience is presented with a
proprietary formula of Putin - “cold revenge without nonsense”
- which the president clothed in a humorous form:
But
if someone thinks that, having committed a despicable war crime,
the murder of people, that they will get away with only losing
tomatoes or some limitations in construction and other industries,
then they are deeply mistaken. We have more than once reminded them
what they have done. And they have more than once not expressed
regret over their actions. We know what we need to do in this
case.”
The
army and military-industrial complex
Even
the strongest economy in the world is not worth a dime if its
financial strength is not interlocked with military force. The
president publicly thanked our military and defense officials, as
it is through their efforts that Russia is maintaining itself in
the small and elite club of states which have the opportunity to
independently decide their own destiny and defend their interests
in any place on the planet.
The
Russian army and military-industrial complex are clear evidence
that the evolutionary approach of the president in solving complex
national problems is working wonderfully despite a lack of “show
elements.” This is a very important point which is completely
ignored by many commentators. After each speech of the president, a
sigh of disappointment sweeps through social networks - those who
are sighing are are the fans of “executions on Red Square” who
are sighing at another missed opportunity to “finally do things
right.”
Look
at the army and the military-industrial complex and compare it with
what we had 10 years ago. If 10 years ago a futurologist would have
predicted that the military would become prestigious, its bullying
would be eliminated, and the army of the Russian Federation would
become modern, prestigious, and reputable in good fashion, no one
would have believed him. In the best case, they would have said
something like “if all the generals are imprisoned or shot,
non-commissioned officers are dispersed, and generals’ summer
homes are bulldozed on TV, then yes, something can and will
change!”
Putin
is a very unique master of achieving evolutionary changes without
ostentation and campaign and organization “grinders” which
easily run out of control and begin to "grind" even the
innocent and even their own creators. In the army, there were
reforms and hundreds of imprisonments and resignations that the
media chose to ignore due to the fact that it was impossible to
arrange a show of this. As a result, this is seen among the
public as some kind of surprise. “Our long-awaited wonderful army
has appeared!” is exclaimed by those particularly gifted
pseudo-analysts who even try to convince the public that this
magically happened in spite of the efforts of the authorities bent
on “collapsing the defense of the country.” The point is that
the army was taken care of for many years without hysterics, but
nonetheless stubbornly. The result is obvious.
The
situation with the military-industrial complex is similar. There
were no public hysterics and campaigns, but rather there as long
and hard work which required considerable human and material
resources.
Putin’s
great service to Russia is that he demonstrated that the country
can solve the most difficult problems in an evolutionary, and not
revolutionary format. We have yet to appreciate and understand
this, but the faster we do, the better.
State
capitalism 2.0
If
the army and military-industrial complex are the leading fists of
our Homeland, than the economy is the gold in its grip. In the
conditions of global hybrid war, the borders between civil and
military spheres are erased. On the one hand, an expert on security
services can be independent in terms of his source of income while
guaranteeing that occupied markets will not be burned by the fires
of civil wars, foreign interventions, and terrorism. On the other
hand, even the ancients said that there are rarely fortresses which
can resist donkeys loaded with gold, and this wisdom has been
confirmed in the current era of mass bribery of elites and the
organization of color revolutions. It turns out that the army is
the basis of the economy and money is the most effective weapon.
Today,
the president once again showed how the Russian economy should be
in order to withstand the period of global hybrid war, and what is
important is not even what he said, but what he didn’t say. The
“invisible hand of the market,” a wisdom and prudence which so
many from part of the Russian establishment and the expert
community rely on, has completely disappeared from official
discourse.
The
hand of the state designed to support vulnerable sectors
(construction, engineering, etc.) and providing funds for the
development of industry and even buying up to 30% of production
enterprises established with the help of special investment
contracts, has emerged in the front place. The state will take care
of exports with the aid of the Russian Export Center, and it will
even secure the purchase of foreign technology and patents which
are not affordable for individual companies. Russia is a country of
miracles and non-linear thinking, and it can be clearly seen how
Russian “state capitalism 2.0” is slowly developing even
though, officially, it does not exist.
A
few months ago, Vladimir Putin, responding to the criticism from
Yevgeniy Yasin, formulated this paradox as follows:
“We
known that even in the most market-based countries, countries with
a market infrastructure and economy, the role of the state always
increases during a crisis. Well always...but we are not going to
create state capitalism.”
It
turns out that even if there is not state capitalism, the growth of
the role of the state in the economy is inevitable.
Everything
will be ok with the economy. Not immediately and not quickly, and
not simply, but the trajectory is correct. Mechanisms for
stimulating and supporting the economy are established, developing,
and are gradually cleansing corruption with the help of the
All-Russian People’s Front.
Integration
Our
time is a time of reformatting the existing world order and
creating new trade and economic blocs, participation in which
determines the future of countries and entire regions. The size of
an accessible market determines production potential, and this
cannot be escaped. Even the largest countries, such as China, are
looking for economic integration in order to increase the number
available markets, deepen the division of labor, and make the
production chain more efficient. Once cannot isolate oneself, and
one cannot pretend that nothing is happening, and it is impossible
to make think that no mistakes can be made in choosing an
integration project. Kiev made a mistake, and now talking about
Ukraine is like talking about the dead. They’re either talked
about fondly, or not at all.
Together
with Russia, China and the Asia-Pacific region as a whole represent
an epicenter of economic growth in our century. Different
strategies can be used in relation to the People’s Republic of
China. It is possible to build an insulating barrier which the
Americans are trying to build around China, but this would be a
catastrophic folly. One could pretend that there is no China next
to us, but the result would not be so different from the first
scenario. It would also be possible to use China’s desire to
create a reliable corridor to Europe protecting oneself from the
sea blockade of the US. Putin chose the wisest and most profitable
option: channeling resource and trade transit flows between Europe
and China through Russia. In order to finally lay down the most
advantageous scheme for Russia and China, winning the battle for
Europe is necessary, and the Russians and Chinese are actively
working on this in tandem. A lot of work and huge potential
for our country is hidden in Putin’s seemingly dry statement that
“in principle, there is agreement on Eurasian integration with
the Chinese initiative of an economic belt, a Silk Road."Speaking
of economic integration projects, Putin described another
terrifying nightmare for our overseas opponents:
“Together
with our colleagues, I propose that the Eurasian Economic Union
begin consultations with members of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, as
well as with the states which are joining the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization, on the formation of possible economic partnership.”
Glance
at the map. If the Shanghai Cooperation Organization turns into an
economic bloc, then it will have the majority of the resources of
the planet, half of the world’s population, and its common GDP
(and PPP) would be a bit smaller than the EU and US combined. If
one counts more honestly, then it would be more than the EU and US.
If one connects this project with at least some of the ASAN
countries, then the Western world, in the near future, will become
the periphery of civilization. This is an incredibly ambitious and
very distant goal, but it is quite possible to achieve. The
creation of this economic bloc would be the best gift to future
generations of Russians.
People
People
are the very element without which all progress is meaningless and
impossible. Without “human capital,” any other capital, whether
financial or industrial, is nothing. Every individual Russian is
the point at which all the elements that the president spoke about
converge. For the sake of every Russian, missiles are created,
fields are plowed, bombardments in Syria are done, and Russian
diplomats overcome difficult situations. Together, we are all the
alchemical melting point in which the fire of trials, difficulties,
and victories creates an image of a future Russia.
It
is a great privilege to watch and participate in the development of
the country with an aim for the future, and here it should be
remembered that not everything boils down to the material. Yes,
material capital, engineering education, affordable health care,
macroeconomic stability, and the myriad aspects of the material
world are very important, but as a minimum, this is just as
important as what the
Divided,
they will destroy us immediately. Our strength is in unity, in the
army, in benevolent nepotism, in multiplying the gains of the
people, and in the natural growth of our inner wealth and love for
peace.”
Our
strength is unity. It is precisely this which is the guarantee of a
great future for our Homeland, and it is this which our president
constantly says. Our strength is in unity, and if we are united,
then we will be able to achieve anything that we want.
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