I have gone hot and cold over the last week over the prospect of National losing the election on 20 September. In spite of polls being notoriously inaccurate and unrepresentative this got me worried.
It is a serious sign of the rise of fascism that the government of the day can be surrounded by unprecedented political scandal that shows them to be corrupt and acting completely outside long-established political norms (and the law) - and still people vote for them, despite credible and rational policies from opposition parties.
If you read "Dirty Politics" you will see that our Minister of Justice (sic), Collins is obsessed with utu (Maori for revenge) and responding to perceived threats DOUBLY.
If this government is voted back in despite all the revelations, I would expect things to get VERY, VERY ugly in this country and moves to take revenge against political enemies (including mainstream media, such as Radio New Zealand).
If things deteriorate internationally as they seem to be very quickly, I would expect the gloves to come off.
That is why I am praying for a victory of the Centre-Left on September 20.
---SMR
National's support up in latest poll
Support
for the National Party has edged back up in the latest Roy Morgan
poll while both the Labour and Green Parties have slipped.
21
August, 2014
National
was up two points to 48 percent while Labour was on 27.5 and the
Green Party on 11.5 percent.
New
Zealand First's support rose to 6.5 percent, while none of the other
minor parties got anywhere near the 5 percent party vote threshold.
The
Roy Morgan poll surveyed 809 people from 4-17 August.
In
Colin James' average of polls, including this latest survey, the
television polls and those conducted by Fairfax and the New Zealand
Herald, National now sits on 50 percent, Labour on 26.3 and the
Greens nearly 11.7 percent.
New
Zealand First is hovering just below 5 percent, Internet Mana is on
2.6 and the Conservatives 2.3 percent.
This is an update from an article from yesterday.
Since then a document from SIS director, Warwick Tucker seems to contradict claims by Key that he had not seen anything, while actions of Collins were in clear contravention of the Cabinet manual (again contradicting Key's claims).
The noose is tightening around the PM's neck.
Wait for Kim Dotcom's revelations in a few weeks time!
First discussion of the issue from security expert, Paul Buchanan.
First discussion of the issue from security expert, Paul Buchanan.
And journalists with John Key. They are no longer letting him get away with open lies. "Like a woman scorned" the journalists have turned against Key -
Inspector-General to look into SIS release
21
August, 2014
The
Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security will investigate
claims the Security Intelligence Service (SIS) declassified
information and gave it to a blogger for political purposes.
Author Nicky Hager.
Photo: RNZ / Diego Opatowski
Cheryl Gwyn said an investigation was warranted, as there was sufficient public interest in the matter.
Nicky Hager's book Dirty Politics alleges the SIS fast-tracked the release of information to the blogger Cameron Slater so he could attack former Labour leader Phil Goff.
It released documents about a 2011 meeting between SIS director Warren Tucker and Mr Goff to Mr Slater a day after he requested them.
The Inspector-General's investigation was prompted by claims from the Green Party that the SIS declassified the information with the express purpose of its being used in an orchestrated political attack.
Greens co-leader Metiria Turei welcomed the investigation and said the Government had treated the country's democratic processes and checks and balances as barriers to be circumvented in its own interest.
She said the decision showed Prime Minister John Key should take the allegations in Dirty Politics more seriously.
"John Key has been saying for days now that the allegations are baseless and are just a conspiracy campaign.
"In fact, the Inspector-General is saying the allegations themselves are serious enough to warrant that investigation."
Mr Goff said the investigation was necessary to give the public confidence that the SIS had not been manipulated, and that there were questions that needed to be answered.
Listen to Phil Goff on Checkpoint ( 3 min 17 sec )
"Whether Cameron Slater was tipped off by the National Party to specifically request a document, why the Director-General saw fit to release a document that was normally confidential, and to release it immediately, and why preference was given to Cameron Slater's request ahead of similar requests from the news media," he said.
Mr Goff told Checkpoint he hoped the Inspector-General could find something over and above the circumstantial evidence, that was available.
"I think the sooner we can get that answer, provided it's done thoroughly, the better," he said.
"I would, of course, prefer that to happen before the election but the timetable is in her hands, not in ours, and we're not trying to influence her on that."
Mr Key said the investigation was good news and should bring clarity.
Listen to more on Checkpoint ( 1 min 54 sec )
"At the end of the day, we're very confident of the position. The SIS themselves have been running that process quite independently, and they've been commenting that everything was absolutely above board," he said.
"But the really good thing here is that the Inspector-General will be able to have a look and absolutely clarify that for everyone."
The fact there was an investigation did not mean there was some validity to the claims, Mr Key said.
Mr Key also held firm on not firing Justice Minister Judith Collins for her actions, detailed in the book and subsequent emails, which showed she gave the name and private phone numbers of public servant Simon Pleasants to Mr Slater.
Watch John Key talking to the media in Masterton
Ms Collins was motivated by the belief Mr Pleasants had leaked information in 2009 about Mr English double-dipping on his housing allowance.
Mr Pleasants had not leaked any information but was subject to abuse on Mr Slater's Whale Oil blog and also received death threats.
Mr Key yesterday described Ms Collins' actions as "unwise", and Deputy Prime Minister Bill English said her actions were not the way he operated.
But today Mr Key said he did not believe she had breached Cabinet Manual guidelines relating to standards of behaviour and the handling of private information, and said she had already been held to account.
"In the end, as Prime Minister, you have to judge a whole range of issues and some issues that happen with Cabinet ministers are serious, some are less serious."
He denied he was not acting against Ms Collins because she held politically damaging information on him.
Judith Collins.
Photo: RNZ / Diego Opatowski
Advantageous requests expedited
Meanwhile, public law specialist Dean Knight said Mr Hager's book had revealed that Official Information Act requests were expedited if they were politically advantageous to the government of the day.
Dean Knight, a senior lecturer at Victoria University's law school, said it was known that requests under the Act were delayed if they did not advantage the government. But it had become clear the opposite also occurred, he said.
"Potentially politically advantageous requests are either encouraged or somehow expedited.
"I think that might be a concern that those watchdogs over the Official Information Act processes, the Ombudsman, might be concerned about."
Meanwhile, new Facebook messages anonymously released online reveal Mr Slater was worried the mainstream news media was going to get the information from the SIS before him.
In one message, the blogger said he was probably going to get ganged up on by mainstream media in Wellington getting the documents first.
The messages have been released in a further dump of material by the person who hacked into Mr Slater's site and then passed the information on to Mr Hager.
They also confirm Mr Slater worked closely with senior National Party figures over releasing information on Labour Party supporters and donors that he got from gaining access to Labour's information system
Letter
suggests PM told of SIS release
More
details have emerged about the communication between the Security
Intelligence Service and the Prime Minister about official
information released to a right-wing blogger.
21
August, 2014
The
Inspector General of Security and Intelligence, Cheryl Gwyn, is
inquiring into allegations that SIS documents were declassified in
order to be used for political purposes.
At
issue is an Official Information Act release to the blogger Cameron
Slater about a briefing to then Labour leader Phil Goff about Israeli
tourists.
The
SIS earlier this week said the Prime Minister's office was informed
of an Official Information Act (OIA) request from Mr Slater in 2011
for SIS documents about a meeting between the then Labour leader Phil
Goff and SIS director Warren Tucker
Mr
Key has said he was not personally informed.
Now
a letter from Dr Tucker to a Newstalk ZB reporter in 2011 has been
released.
In
it, Dr Tucker talks about notifying the Prime Minister about the
release and advising the Prime Minister about the legal advice.
The
former SIS director said he informed Mr Key that Phil Goff had been
told of the decision to release the information to Cameron Slater.
Nicky
Hager's book Dirty Politics alleges the SIS fast-tracked the release
of information to Whale Oil blogger Cameron Slater so he could attack
former Labour Party leader Phil Goff.
It
released documents about a 2011 meeting between Mr Tucker and the
Labour leader to Mr Slater a day after he requested them.
The
Inspector-General's investigation was prompted by claims from the
Green Party that the SIS declassified the information with the
express purpose of its being used in an orchestrated political
attack.
Deeply symbolic. Who else is known for the burnng of
books?
Young Nats buying and burning Dirty Politics?
21
August, 2014
If
you've heard enough about Nicky Hager's Dirty Politics book and
claims of Judith Collins' leaking like a sieve to blogger Cameron
Slater, you're not alone.
Rumours
doing the rounds on social media yesterday suggested a group of Young
Nats in Hamilton might take matters into their own hands and dispose
of a large stock of the dreaded book.
It's
not exactly on the same scale as the book burnings of the Nazi regime
or the anti-communist McCarthy era but social media was yesterday
buzzing with rumours of an imminent book burning at Waikato
University.
The
head of the Waikato Students' Union and a former member of the Young
Nats is alleged to have bought 202 copies of Hager's book to burn.
Aaron
Letcher has denied the claims, but the leader of NZ First Youth and a
Waikato University source, who asked not to be named, said he did.
Letcher
said the claims were false.
"There
is nothing to it. I saw the allegations on Facebook by a NZ First
person"
The
Facebook page Letcher was referring to belongs to NZ First Youth
leader Curwen Rolinson, who posted: "So apparently, the CNI
Young Nats (and, assumedly, the NZ Young Nats) are buying up copies
of Nicky Hager's #DirtyPolitics . . . and burning them."
Rolinson
said he stood by his post.
His
claims have been backed by a Waikato University student who saw the
books in Letcher's possession.
The
source understood that Letcher had been given money from someone
within the National Party to buy the books.
Letcher
said: "I have one copy of the book and I haven't finished it
yet. I'm not involved in this."
National
Party MP for Hamilton West Tim Macindoe was surprised to learn of the
allegations.
"This
is the first I've heard of this. I know Aaron to be a straight-up
guy, I would be surprised if he was involved."
Macindoe
said if true, the allegations were puzzling.
"I
wouldn't know why anyone would want to do that. It doesn't make
sense."
David
Bennett, National's MP for Hamilton East, also hadn't been checking
his social media. He said the whole thing was "bizarre".
According
to the university source, seven out of the 10 members of the Waikato
University Student board are affiliated to the Young Nats group.
Central
North Island Young Nats policy chairperson and campaign manager Jason
Howarth backed Letcher, saying the claims were false.
Asked
if he was 100 per cent sure Letcher did not have anything to do with
the books, Howarth stated: "CNI Young Nats have not authorised
or paid for any of Nicky Hager's books."
Asked
what would be the consequence if a member of the Young Nats had been
involved, Howarth said: "We would consider their involvement in
the party."
Meanwhile,
as Prime Minister John Key continued to defend his embattled Justice
Minister Judith Collins, Twitter was thrown into a frenzy by a spoof
resignation letter.
Collins
has faced days of speculation over her future and when a tweet
surfaced from talkback host Duncan Garner announcing her resignation
mid-afternoon, it appeared she had finally caved into the pressure.
But
no. A quarter of an hour later Collins herself tweeted to set the
record straight. "Story from Duncan Garner quite wrong.
Presumably, he's the victim of a hoax."
A
spokeswoman for Collins also confirmed to Fairfax that she was not
going to resign after it emerged she passed the name and contact
details of a senior public servant to blogger Slater. Simon Pleasants
then received death threats after he was vilified on Slater's Whale
Oil blog.
Collins
says she can't say any more because Slater has reported the theft of
his emails to police.
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