The
Southern Front Catastrophe – August 27, 2014
27
August, 2014
Map of Operations, August 10-27, 2014 – Created by Kot Ivanov and Anthony Hartin
Novorossiya Military Briefing – Novorossiya Shall Be!
Original: Colonel Cassad LiveJournal
Translated from Russian by Daniel Mikhailovich / Edited by Gleb Bazov
Translated from Russian by Daniel Mikhailovich / Edited by Gleb Bazov

To many it seemed that the Militia forces were on the ropes and just about to break, which would have led to the collapse of Novorossiya and a military victory for the fascist Junta. Nevertheless, the Militia managed to withstand the most severe blow, which the Junta dealt with all the forces available to it in the first half of August. The Junta did not conceal its plans, and the preparations for the assaults on Shakhtersk and Lugansk were openly discussed. The bravura level of the Junta’s triumphant reports that came with each new breakthrough of its mechanized battle groups was off the charts.

The second critical moment came when a strike was made from Debaltsevo through Fashchevka, intended to converge with the 24th Mechanized Brigade that was breaking out of the Southern Cauldron. It was an ambitious plan, whereby the enemy tried to bisect Novorossiya by using as a strike group the units that everybody assumed had been written off. This joint strike on Miusinsk and Krasnyi Luch triggered a severe crisis in Novorossiya because were very few troops in this area.

Because the offensive on Yasinovataya failed, the breakthrough to Verkhnyaya Krynka and Zhdanovka aimed at cutting off Gorlovka was liquidated, and the Junta failed to advance toward Yenakievo, in the second half of August the Junta’s offensive started to run out of steam and the Militia gradually began to gain offensive momentum.

The outer limits of this offensive were the southern slopes of Saur-Mogila, the semi-encircled Mospino and the southern suburbs of Ilovaisk. In the last few days of the offensive, it was reduced simply to a primitive frontal assault on Ilovaisk. Meanwhile, a threat that later proved to be fatal was looming on the Junta’s southern flank. Having finished off the Southern Cauldron and after repelling the offensive on Miusinsk and Krasnyi Luch, the Militia recaptured Marinovka (which in July-August twice went back and forth between the factions) and started to seep along the border toward the Uspenka border-crossing checkpoint, in the process encircling the Amvrosievka grouping.

By the looks of it, the Junta’s intelligence missed this offensive entirely, and as a result of this oversight a comparatively small Militia force intercepted the main supply routes of the largest battle group of the Junta to the south of Donetsk. This grouping was comprised of the enemy’s most combat-capable units involved in the assaults on Mospino, Saur-Mogila and Ilovaisk, including the three punitive battalions – Azov, Shahtersk and Donbass-1, as well as the various reinforcement units and independent companies. More than 5,000 soldiers, approximately 180 various armoured vehicles, and up to 90 artillery pieces, mortars, and MLRS ended up being surrounded.

Because only rearguard unites without heavy weapons remained outside the cauldron, the Militia immediately began to develop the offensive to the south-west of Amvrosievka, toward Starobeshevo, and took it by the evening of August 26th. Meanwhile, militiamen were already moving toward Volnovakha on August 25th. Effectively, the loss of these centres means that here the Junta does not have positions from which it can try to break through to the surrounded forces. The encircled troops, in essence, ended up deep in the rear, far away from the new front line, and with a limited supply of fuel and ammunition.

At the same time, the Militia also developed its offensive to the west of Mospino, toward Ugledar, Yelenovka, and Nikolskoye. Here the forces of the Junta are few in number, so the Militia’s offensive has been developing quite successfully, albeit not too rapidly. Near Yelenovka, yet another “mini-cauldron” has formed, and the connectivity of the Junta groups that held Donetsk in semi-encirclement has been irreparably compromised.

Overall, it still is not quite clear how the Junta intends to avoid a complete defeat here. It will clearly not be able to restore the previous frontline, and the only question is whether the surrounded troops will be able to break out (and as they will have to do so on their own, it is likely that they will have to make that decision as soon as possible), and where the Militia’s offensive will stop – they still have fairly limited forces and they are now routing a larger force with a smaller force.
In the meantime, the once-solid front, which stretched from Marinovka to Yelenovka has now broken up into separate pockets of resistance with intercepted supply lines. After this disaster it became absolutely clear that the Junta does not have the capacity to destroy Novorossiya. By squandering the most combat-capable brigades in systematic offensive operations, the Junta sustained enormous losses and at the same time suffered a crushing, purely military defeat. The southern front has collapsed. Novorossiya shall exist!
Novorussian
flag over Saur Mogila
Not
confirmed, but maybe?!
Dear
friends,
I
just decided to quickly drop by to let you know that the reports out
of Novorussia are nothing short of incredible. Okay, this is not,
repeat, *NOT* confirmed, but sources are reporting that Novorussian
forces have bypassed Mariupol from the north and have entered the
Zaporozhie region! I find this hard to believe, but some sources
indicate that there is an offensive on Berdiansk. If true, this is
almost scary as this means a very long flank opening to a Ukie
counterattack from the North. There have been reports over the past
few days that the Ukies are fleeing Mariupol, but I still would be
very careful. The Ukies in the first southern cauldron came very
close to breaking out through the north and I just hope that no Ukie
force is considered finished until it is really, truly, finished.
Still,
the speed at which the Ukies are retreating might (not sure!!) that
they have reached their breaking point. If so, then this conflict is
coming to some kind of a new phase.
Another
thing which really made my day is the news that Putin told Poroshenko
and Co. "we are not a party to this war - talk to the
Novorussians". Beautiful and perfectly timed!
We
should know more by tomorrow morning.
In
the meantime - keep open threading!
Cheers,
The
Saker
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