"The Pole IS melting, but...": climate change denial

The denialists have to admit the North Pole is melting. In the meantime another decade of 'business-as-usual' is needed to determine if it is real or not. I can imagine the last oil executive left on earth will finally have to admit that “it APPEARS likely that humans have caused global warming”

Jury still out on cause of melting ice sheets

ANOTHER decade of satellite observations was needed to determine whether a recent acceleration in ice melt from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets was the result of long-term trends or short-term natural variability

the Australian,

15 July, 2013

A new paper, published today in Nature Geoscience, said melting ice was the major factor to determine future sea level rises.

Some researchers claim the melt has been underestimated by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

And the new paper said a lack of consensus among scientists and a high level of uncertainty remained.

"Although the recent observations show an increasingly negative mass balance for both ice sheets, the scientific community has not reached a consensus on whether this is owing to variability ("noise") in the ice-sheet climate system or reflects a secular signal," the paper said.

Author Bert Wouters, from the University of Colorado, Boulder, said the findings "underscore the need for continuous satellite monitoring of the ice sheets to better identify and predict melting and the corresponding sea-level rise".

The research said although there was almost enough satellite data to detect an acceleration in mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet, another 10 years of satellite observations may be needed to do so for Greenland.

"This finding challenges the notion that recent accelerations in melt will be sustained into the future, and urges caution in extrapolating current measurements to predict future sea level rise" a statement accompanying the release of the paper said.

Researchers said the uncertainty was due to the inability of current ice sheet models to incorporate all processes governing ice loss, in particular "complex dynamical changes of the marginal glaciers and the forcing at marine margins".

An alternative to the models was to base near-future sea-level rise projections on extrapolation of recent observed changes in the mass balance of the ice sheets,

Recent studies point towards an increasing ice-mass loss of both ice sheets, raising the concern that earlier projections based on extrapolation of their observed present sea-level rise contribution may underestimate future sea-level rise.

Based on the assumption that these rates continue, other studies have concluded that the ice sheets will be the largest contributors to 21st-century sea-level rise, adding 56cm to sea levels by 2100 to exceed the projections reported in the IPCC's fourth assessment report.

However, the paper concludes more time was required.