There is a lot of talk about the “Shark fin function” forums, but I don't saw the network a good mathematical justification. This article is so fans can dig a little deeper from yesterday's news about the End of the World....
- Mathematical modeling shows that the systemic crisis of 2007-2015, can be caused by a limitation in the energy minerals: coal, oil and gas.
- The values of initial geological reserves of coal, oil and gas, calculated according to the model (1200-1250 billion tons of conditional fuel), as close to stock assessments, completed in 1956, M. K. Hubbert, and to estimates of proven reserves according to the Report of the BP 2015. The simple model results are in good agreement with the results of much more complex WORLD3 of "Limits to growth".
- If the current economic crisis really is caused by a limitation in resources, likely sharp decline in the standard of living of the population: approximately to the level of the early twentieth century in the period of 20-35 years. Further predictions cannot be made in the framework of this model.
- Even if hydrocarbon reserves are TWICE those of the BP 2015, peak production and a collapse is inevitable before the middle of the 21st century. The probability of doubling the resource base over a period of 20-25 years is close to zero.
- In 2016 the price of oil... don't wait! Have already said: depends on the Washington
«Акулий Плавник» и кризис 2015 года.
The "shark Fin" and the crisis of 2015
28 January, 2016
Про функцию «Акулий плавник» много говорят на форумах, но я что-то не видел в сети хорошего математического обоснования. Для любителей копнуть несколько глубже вчерашних новостей о Конце Света – эта статья.
- Не дождётесь! Говорил уже: зависит только от Вашингтонского печатного станка.