Thursday, 25 October 2018
Australia entering a mega-drought predicted to last 20 years
Australia Could Be Entering a MEGA DROUGHT That Lasts 20 Years
20 October, 2018
Australia could be entering a mega-drought predicted to last 20 years, an expert has warned.
Forecaster Kevin Long from Bendigo, Victoria, predicts that the record dry of 1982 is now due to return.
He says autumn and winter periods failed to deliver enough rain to establish crops, meaning the growing season never got under way in many regions.
When Jupiter and Saturn are closest together – which will occur next year – it will have a minimising effect on Australia’s rainfall, Mr Long claims.
In the last 50-100 years these two cycles have moved closer and closer together and have finally synchronised,’ Mr Long said.
This synchronisation will then have a greater effect on our rainfall.’
The period 2019-2021 is very likely to be the driest period in the Australian climate for over 200 years.
With all of NSW being declared drought affected earlier this year, Mr Long said that there will be a significant impact on crops.
There’s hardly a crop between the northern and southern border in NSW,’ he explained.
That represents about a third of the eastern half Australia’s food production.
Half of Queensland is in similar situations and the north western half of Victoria is the same.
I don’t think there’ll be any profitable crops grown in half of the Murray Darling Basin this year and the rest of it is going to be very poor.’
Areas which did receive a significant amount of rain will have very low soil moisture if they experience a couple of weeks without any decent rain.
Extended periods of dry weather during spring will greatly increase the risk of damaging crops, like the ones that have just occurred during the last week of winter.
Shocking figures revealed that parts of Victoria have lost a third of their usual amount of rain.
Victoria had the wettest decade in 1970 at 627mm average. In the 1980s the average rainfall was 572mm. The 1990s saw 536mm, while 2000/09 experienced 418mm,’ Mr Long said.
The Bureau of Meteorology announced the odds of an El Niño system forming this year are now twice as high as normal.
El Niño events often result in severe droughts, bringing higher temperatures, lower than average rainfall and increased risk of bushfires.
The phenomenon could last as long as two years.
If an El Niño does form in the latter half of 2018, it could prove catastrophic for parched Australian farmers.
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