RUSSIAN
WHEAT CROP TO FALL TO 67.4 MLN T DUE ADVERSE WEATHER -AGRITEL
21
June, 2018
PARIS,
June 21 (Reuters) - Wheat production in Russia is
expected
to drop to 67.4 million tonnes this year, down 21.5
percent
from a record 2017 crop, after adverse weather affected
both
winter and spring wheat, French consultancy Agritel said on
Thursday.
Other
forecasters have been scaling back their expectations
for
the wheat harvest in Russia, the world's biggest exporter of
the
cereal, due to weather concerns, contributing to a run-up in
international
prices last month.
Agritel's
estimate was below the 68.50 million tonnes
projected
by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in a
world
crop report on June 12, a projection that fuelled further
gains
in wheat futures, before prices retreated in the past
week.
Agritel's
forecast, which followed a crop tour it conducted
in
southern Russia last week, would nonetheless be 1.3 percent
above
the average volume of the past five years, it said in a
Russian
harvest outlook.
The
consultancy's production outlook was based on an
estimated
average yield of 2.61 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), down
from
3.10 t/ha last year, and an area of 25.83 million hectares.
For
winter wheat, production was forecast to decline to 50
million
tonnes, down about 19 percent from last year.
"The
potential is estimated well below last year, mainly
because
of the dryness during spring and hot temperatures from
the
beginning of June in southwestern regions," Agritel said of
winter
wheat.
For
later-developing spring wheat, it projected production
would
drop about 28 percent to 17.3 million tonnes, stressing
that
planting delays had led it to estimate a decrease in the
crop
area to 11.3 million hectares from 12.7 million last year.
Cold,
wet conditions in more northerly regions have hampered
sowing
and early growth of spring wheat, contributing to
downward
revisions by some forecasters.
Agritel
said it had provisionally applied a 10-year average
of
1.53 t/ha as the 2018 spring wheat yield, down from 1.89 t/ha
last
year, but the outlook was subject to revision as crops
develop
in the coming weeks.
Russia’s
poor start to spring means farmers may struggle to collect a wheat
crop that’s near to last year’s record.
Cold
weather in central areas and the Volga valley delayed the resumption
of winter wheat growth by about two to three weeks compared with last
year, according to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, or
IKAR. Lingering snow has also given farmers in the world’s top
exporter less time to sow spring crops, potentially leading to
smaller-than-expected plantings.
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