“Yes,
it is hard not to believe that climate change has to be playing a
part in what is going on round the globe at present,” said Dann
Mitchell of Bristol University. “There have been some remarkable
extremes recorded in the past few weeks, after all. However, we
should take care about overstating climate change’s influence for
it is equally clear there are also other influences at work.”
That left climate change - the Guardian was always a fairly reliable source on climate change.
Now with ABRUPT climate change becoming more and more obvious with every day it is now, like the ENTIRETY of the New Zealand media becoming a voice of abrupt climate change denial.
I have long noticed that while the Guardian has plenty on climate change science it has always ignored extreme weather. Until now when it has become impossible to do so.
So now it joins the "climate is not weather" brigade and seperates "climate change" from "other causes". Quite what they think climate change will look like I'm not sure. Perhaps they think it won't kick in until 2100 so what we are seeing can't possibly be that (sic)!
Anything, I suppose, to stop people from seeing things as they are and panicking or falling into depression.
But
why is so much of our world currently being afflicted with
blisteringly hot weather? What is driving the wildfires, the soaring
temperatures and those melting rooftops? These are tricky questions
to answer, such is the complex nature of the planet’s weather
systems. Most scientists point to a number of factors with global
warming being the most obvious candidate. Others warn that it would
be wrong to overstate its role in the current heatwaves, however.
“Yes,
it is hard not to believe that climate change has to be playing a
part in what is going on round the globe at present,” said Dann
Mitchell of Bristol University. “There have been some remarkable
extremes recorded in the past few weeks, after all. However, we
should take care about overstating climate change’s influence for
it is equally clear there are also other influences at work.”
One
of those other factors is the jet stream – a core of strong winds
around five to seven miles above the Earth’s surface that blow from
west to east and which steer weather around the globe. Sometimes,
when they are intense, they bring storms. On other occasions, when
they are weak, they bring very calm and settled days. And that is
what is occurring at present.
“The
jet stream we are currently experiencing is extremely weak and, as a
result, areas of atmospheric high pressure are lingering for long
periods over the same place,” added Mitchell.
Other
factors involved in creating the meteorological conditions that have
brought such heat to the northern hemisphere include substantial
changes to sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. “These
are part of a phenomenon known as the Atlantic multidecadal
oscillation,” said Professor Adam Scaife, of the Met Office.
They normalise the current situation by comparing it with previous events.
“In
fact, the situation is very like the one we had in 1976, when we had
similar ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and an unchanging jet
stream that left great areas of high pressure over many areas for
long periods,” said Scaife.
We have long known the intimate connection between climate change, the melting of polar ice and the slowing-down of the jetstream. Just look at almost any video by Paul Beckwith to understand the connection or this Australian documentary on the work of Jennifer Francis.
We have long known the intimate connection between climate change, the melting of polar ice and the slowing-down of the jetstream. Just look at almost any video by Paul Beckwith to understand the connection or this Australian documentary on the work of Jennifer Francis.
Dr. Jennifer Francis, Top Climatologists Explain How Global Warming Wrecks the Jet Stream and Amps Up Hydrological Cycle To Cause Dangerous Weather
A
new program, posted above and produced by Australian Broadcasting,
provides in depth analysis of the cutting edge climate science that
begins to reveal how human-caused climate change is causing
increasingly dangerous weather.
The
program explores past extreme events like the European and Russian
heatwaves that together resulted in nearly 100,000 deaths, the
devastating floods of Pakistan, and this year’s extreme Northern
Hemisphere winter and shows how climate change was the driving factor
in each. The program also explores issues I’ve been covering here —
like how melting sea ice causes the Jet Stream to meander, resulting
in more persistent weather patterns that drive extreme events. The
chief pioneer in this research, Dr. Jennifer Francis, provides some
well rendered and somewhat chilling explanations about this key
feature of our new atmosphere.
Another
aspect explored is how global warming greatly increases the
hydrological cycle. New findings have shown that just 1 degree
Celsius of global temperature rise increases the intensity of the
global hydrological cycle by a whopping 7%.
Evaporation increases by 7%, fueling more droughts and heatwaves, and rates of rainfall during storms also increases by 7%, further increasing the damage caused by the most extreme storms. Predicted rises in temperatures of 2, 4, 6 or more degrees Celsius would result in a catastrophic amplification of the hydrological cycle by 15, 30, 40 percent or greater. This basic underpinning of storm and drought formation shows how devastating to human systems such a massive change in major weather drivers would be.
Evaporation increases by 7%, fueling more droughts and heatwaves, and rates of rainfall during storms also increases by 7%, further increasing the damage caused by the most extreme storms. Predicted rises in temperatures of 2, 4, 6 or more degrees Celsius would result in a catastrophic amplification of the hydrological cycle by 15, 30, 40 percent or greater. This basic underpinning of storm and drought formation shows how devastating to human systems such a massive change in major weather drivers would be.
Lastly,
the program explores how even a .8 degree Celsius rise in
temperatures has resulted in more deadly heatwaves. The great
European, Russian, US and Australia heatwaves of the past decade are
all explored in this particular expose.
Please
watch to entire video. It is well worth your time.
Just
in time, Paul Beckwith weighs in. He is a lot kinder about the
article than I am.
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