Posts
NOAA
Shows June of 2015 Smashed All Prior Heat Records; El Nino Keeps
Strengthening; Hothouse Mass Casualties Strike Europe, Japan
Under
an oppressive human fossil fuel emission, the world just keeps
getting hotter and hotter, the 2015-2016 El Nino just keeps looking
ever more monstrous, and reports of tragic, heat-related, mass
casualty events just keep rolling in.’
21
July, 2015
*
* * *
JULY
21, 2015:
All the major climate monitors have now chimed in — NASA, Japan’s
Meteorological Agency, NOAA. And June of 2015 is now marked as the
hottest recorded in every single one. But of these, the NOAA measure,
which provided its Global
Analysis report yesterday, clearly is the starkest.
Showing
extraordinary warming, June of 2015, according
to NOAA, hit +0.88 C above the 20th Century average. That’s an
excessive leap of +0.12 C over last year’s previous record June
measure showing a +0.76 C global temperature departure and just 0.02
C behind the all-time monthly record values for any month hit just
this year during February and March (+0.90 C). When compared to
1880s averages, June was fully 1.08 C hotter. That’s more than
halfway to the (not safe) 2 C threshold which IPCC has marked off as
the point where catastrophic impacts from human caused climate change
really start to hit high gear.
(On
the up ramp to a hothouse. The NOAA global climate record for land
and ocean temperatures over the last 136 years in which June of 2015
is now the all-time hottest. Image source: NOAA.)
We
can clearly see the progress of rapid warming over the past 136 years
in the above graph. Particularly since 1980 — when global
temperatures really started to hit a rapid ramp up. Note that the
mythological pause is not at all evident in the above graph. Global
temperatures through June measures just kept driving on — higher
and higher.
Back
to Back Record Years on the Way — The Human Warming Escalator and
The El Nino Jump
With
all the June measures coming in so strongly on the hot side, and
with the first half of this year already substantially warmer than
the previous record warm year of 2014, it appears that we are
locking in for back-to-back years of record heat. These new records
are occurring in the context both of the larger, human-forced warming
trend and as we hit the warm end of the global natural variability
scale — El Nino.
It’s
important to remember that the driver of these new records is the
underlying accumulation of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. Deke
Arndt, chief of the monitoring branch of NOAA’s National Centers
for Environmental Information (NCEI), noted
at a press
conference last month:
“Climate
change is a long-term driver, so that’s like standing on an
escalator as it goes up. So, the longer that we go into history,
we’re riding up the escalator. And now that we’re getting an El
Niño event, we happen to be jumping up at the same time, and so they
play together to produce outcomes like what is likely to be the
warmest year on record.”
And
propelled by that human warming escalator, the current El Nino jump
is starting to look absolutely savage.
El
Nino Just Keeps Growing Stronger
For
today’s Australia
Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) report showed the current El Nino
striking down yet another 1997 record. According to BoM findings, all
key Nino ocean zones have shown surface temperatures in excess of 1 C
above average for 10 successive weeks. This shatters the previous
record duration for such an event — occurring in 1997 at 8 weeks in
length. Notably, the current record heat build for Nino zones is
still ongoing. So the new, 2015 record could extend further.
Overall,
BoM shows the entire Eastern Equatorial Pacific now at +2 C. To get
an idea what this looks like, we can take a peek at the Earth
Nullschool sea surface temperature anomaly measure:
(The
entire Northern, Eastern and Equatorial Pacific is exceedingly hot —
showing anomalies in the +1 to +4 C range practically everywhere.
Meanwhile, temperatures in the Central Pacific are starting to
approach Super El Nino ranges. Image source: Earth
Nullschool.)
Taking
in this shot, it’s worth pausing for a moment to appreciate the
fact that not only is the Equatorial Pacific outrageously hot, the
entire Northern and Eastern Pacific from the Arctic on south is just
off-the-charts hot. If you ever wondered what the emerging face of a
Godzilla El Nino looks like, well, just remember this shot.
NOAA,
meanwhile, shows El Nino continuing to extend its foray into strong
event range. The critical Nino 3.4 measure of Central Pacific
Ocean temperatures jumped again in the July 20 weekly report —
hitting a +1.7 C anomaly. This is jump up from last week’s +1.5 C
measure and is now knocking on the door to a super El Nino threshold
of +1.8 C. NOAA’s three weekly reports for July now average +1.53 C
for the Central Pacific — solidly in strong El Nino range for the
month.
NOAA
also began to track a third warm Kelvin Wave running across the
Pacific. This Kelvin Wave is propagating eastward as a result of a
strong West Wind Backburst that has blown over the Western Pacific
throughout much of July. These winds are pushing warm surface waters
down and under the Equatorial region. Ocean heat that will resurface
off South American. Recharging already hot waters with a new hot
influx and further strengthening an already strong El Nino.
The
signal of this new warm water flood is now really starting to show up
in the model runs. Corrected seasonal models now show an event in the
range of 1997-1998. Uncorrected runs, including the Euro ensemble,
continue to show potentials for an event that would make the 1997
Super El Nino look tiny by comparison.
(NOAA’s
CFSv2 models still picking up a heat impact murmur of a monster El
Nino in our near future. Image source: NOAA.)
Typically,
El Nino reaches peak strength during Northern Hemisphere Fall and
Winter. So we’re in a ramp-up phase that could last through October
and November and we are already starting to hit strong event values
in July. The current El Nino is predicted to remain a feature until
late Winter or early Spring of 2016. Strongest global temperature
heightening impacts come during and slightly after peak ocean warming
due to El Nino. So the temperature records we’ve seen so far in
2014 and 2015 may just be prelude to the main event.
Heat
Related Mass Casualties in Europe and Japan
It
really is the kind of global heat spike that you don’t want to see.
The kind that enables heatwaves to put droves of people into
hospitals with life-threatening heat ailments. Earlier this summer,
both India and Pakistan suffered mass casualty heatwave events.
Instances that filled hospitals with tens of thousands of patients.
In India, 2,500 souls were lost. In Pakistan, the number hit 1,242.
These
represent the 5th and 8th most deadly heatwaves on record,
respectively.
Now,
reports are starting to trickle in that Europe and Japan are
suffering similar, although still somewhat less acute mass casualty
events due to record heat. According to Dr. Jeff Masters, excess
mortality due to heat had claimed more than 1,200 lives across
Western Europe through early July. Meanwhile, reports are also
starting to trickle in from Japan of heat related mass casualties. A
report last week from Japan’s Fire and Disaster Management Agency
found that 3,000 people had been admitted for heat stroke to
hospitals across the island nation during the period of July 6
through 12.
Over
the next few days, record-breaking heat is again expected to invade
parts of southern Europe, setting the stage for more potential heat
casualties.
Conditions
in Context — Heat Breaking New Records Means More Extreme Weather
All
time record high global temperatures for 2015 and likely at least a
decent period during 2016 means we are also likely to continue to
experience odd and severe weather conditions over many regions of the
globe. A fact that was punctuated in Southern California earlier this
week as the
remnants of a tropical cyclone dumped 1.69 inches of rain — or
more than ten times the amount of rainfall typical for July — over
parts of San Diego through Monday. Possibly a taste of what’s to
come for California should the currently building Godzilla-type El
Nino — pumped up by a catastrophic rate of human greenhouse gas
emission — crush the West Coast blocking pattern and hurl a barrage
of powerful storms at the drought-parched state. A situation many may
be hoping for at this time, but which they could easily come to
regret as the extreme intensity of weather switches in the new
climate age of 1 C warming start to become evident.
Links:
Hat
Tip to Colorado Bob and Ryan in New England
Hat
Tip to Andy in San Diego (How about that rain?)
Hat
Tip to Matt
You really wrote an awaking blog that will aware to the world from the dangers of Global warming.
ReplyDeleteYour valuable blog aware us from the side effect of increasing the temperature.
Record Heat