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El Niño Continues to Ramp Up
The
latest updates from NOAA (see PDF)
and the Australian
Bureau of Meteorology confirm
that the El Niño event that began in earnest this spring continues
to build. NOAA reports that sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the
closely watched Niño3.4 region of the eastern tropical Pacific were
1.2°C above average last week, well into the range associated with
moderate El Niño events (+1.0°C to +1.5°C). Based on another
marker, the Multivariate
ENSO Index,
this El Niño event is already into the “strong” category. All of
the Niño monitoring regions had SSTs of at least 1.2°C above
average last week, making for the most widespread oceanic warmth
since the landmark El Niño event of 1997–98. Policymakers and
investors are already taking
note of
the potential implications of the intensifying El Niño for
agriculture and the economy.
Computer
models are in firm agreement that El Niño conditions will strengthen
further during the latter part of 2015. All eight of
the international
models tracked
by BOM show Niño3.4 readings of 1.5°C or higher by October (see
Figure 2), and several exceed 2.0°C, suggesting that the strongest
event since 1997–98 may well be in the cards. Some models predicted
that a significant El Niño would emerge in mid-2014,
but that didn’t happen, largely because the atmosphere failed to
respond to oceanic shifts that often kick off El Niño. This time,
the atmosphere and ocean are much more in sync, so we can put more
trust in the current model outlooks—especially now that we’re
past the “spring
predictability barrier” that
makes early-year forecasts of El Niño so tough. In today’s update,
NOAA is calling for a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will
continue through the northern fall of 2015, and around an 85% chance
it will last through the winter of 2015-16.
Crops and Climate: Plants Will Suffer as Earth Warms
One
persistent assumption about the effects of climate change is that
plants will thrive in warmer temperatures and an atmosphere of
increasing carbon dioxide. But the reality turns out to be not so
simple. In many parts of the world, just the opposite could occur —
and with potentially disastrous results for billions of people who
depend heavily on plants for food, fuel and jobs
New
research in the peer-reviewed journal PLOS Biology suggests plants in
the north will remain limited by solar radiation — which is scarce
at northern latitudes due to the shape of the Earth and its
rotation, and is not likely to change as a result of climate —
curbing any positive effects of warming and additional carbon
dioxide. Furthermore, many plants in tropical regions will be unable
to tolerate excessively high heat, especially if accompanied by
drought. The result could be a loss in valuable growing days for
populations who can least afford it and are ill equipped to cope with
it
A
new study of tree rings from Mongolia dating back more than 1,000
years confirms that recent warming in central Asia has no parallel in
any known record. In recent decades, temperatures have been ascending
more rapidly here than in much of the world, but scientists have
lacked much evidence to put the trend into a long-term context. The
study does not explicitly raise the issue of human-induced warming,
but is sure to be seen as one more piece of evidence that it is at
work. The study appears in the journal Quaternary Science Reviews.
‘Human race is sleepwalking toward extinction’ - Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War
Dr.
Helen Caldicott, founder of the Nobel Peace Prize-winning
International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW),
founder of the Helen Caldicott Foundation for a Nuclear Free-Future
An important article from 2009. Who is talking about this now?
Newsflash: Global warming could stop photosynthesis.
.....Here's
something you may not have known about photosynthesis: it only works
over a limited temperature range. You are probably not surprised to
learn photosynthesis doesn't work well at temperatures where water
freezes. You are also probably not surprised to learn photosynthesis
doesn't work well at temperatures where water boils. You might be
surprised to learn that photosynthesis stops at a temperature well
below the boiling point of water. The magic number? 104 degrees
Fahrenheit, or 40 degrees Centrigrade. .....
NASA releases detailed global climate change projections
NASA
has released data showing how temperature and rainfall patterns
worldwide may change through the year 2100 because of growing
concentrations of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere.
The
dataset, which is available to the public, shows projected changes
worldwide on a regional level in response to different scenarios of
increasing carbon dioxide simulated by 21 climate models. The
high-resolution data, which can be viewed on a daily timescale at the
scale of individual cities and towns, will help scientists and
planners conduct climate risk assessments to better understand local
and global effects of hazards, such as severe drought, floods, heat
waves and losses in agriculture productivity.
California Is Literally Sinking Into the Ground
And
it's going to cost taxpayers big time.
While
the state's drought-induced sinking is well known, new details
highlight just how severe it has become and how little the government
has done to monitor it.
Last
summer, scientists recorded the worst sinking in at least 50 years.
This summer, all-time records are expected across the state as
thousands of miles of land in the Central Valley and elsewhere sink.
Some
places in California are sinking more than a foot per year.
But
the extent of the problem and how much it will cost taxpayers to fix
are part of the mystery of the state's unfolding drought. No agency
is tracking the sinking statewide, little public money has been put
toward studying it and California allows agriculture businesses to
keep crucial parts of their operations secret.
Earth
will reach 2C warming threshold by 2038 based on carbon pledges made
by 36 countries so far, rather than 2036 without any cuts, analysis
show.
Pledges
made by countries to cut their carbon emissions ahead of a crunch
climate summit in Paris later this year will delay the world passing
the threshold for dangerous global warming by just two years,
according to a new analysis.
Climate
change is making the Texas panhandle, birthplace of the state’s
iconic Longhorn, too hot and dry to raise beef. What happens to the
range when the water runs out?
More
than 12 million trees have died in California. A combination of
drought, heat, and insects may be to blame.
A
new study is the first to examine the wide spectrum of interactions
between drought and insects. Researchers first devised a framework to
look at the effects that each stressor can have on tree mortality and
then examined interactions among them.
More
than 3,000 starving sea lion pups have washed up on California’s
beaches since January—easily 15 times more than in a normal year.
“It’s
unprecedented,” says Sarah Wilkin, national marine mammal stranding
and emergency response coordinator for the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration.
And
those are the lucky pups. The situation on California’s Channel
Islands, where more than 90 percent of the U.S. sea lion population
congregates to breed and nurse young, is even worse than in other
parts of the state.
We already knew Alaska was having some crazy weather lately. That included a record 91 degrees in Eagle in May, the “hottest temperature ever recorded so early in the calendar year in our 49th state,” per our own Capital Weather Gang.
And
now, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that
the state as a whole experienced its warmest May in the weather
books. As the agency puts it:
Record
heat in the Spokane area damaged a portion of US Highway 195.
The
Washington State Patrol says temperatures in the high 90s on Monday
baked the pavement until a section of highway split a few miles south
of the city.
Traffic
lanes were reduced around the crumbled pavement.
But
the highway was fully reopened early Tuesday morning after crews
repaired the damaged roadway.
According
to the National Weather Service, temperatures climbed into triple
digits in several towns on Monday, including 102 in Wenatchee and
Ephrata and 101 in Moses Lake.
The
Spokane heat broke a 1931 record of 91 degrees.
Torrential
downpours sparked major flooding in Quebec's Eastern Townships
Tuesday night.
Meanwhile,
a stormy afternoon is ahead, with severe thunderstorm watches up for
several communities including Montreal.
More
than 30 mm fell on the region overnight, with a total of 57 mm
recorded in Sherbrooke since Monday.
.
Following
a winter marked by little snow and warmer temperatures, fire crews on
Monday were tackling two large wildfires burning on mostly treeless
tundra in the southwest part of the state.
Weekend
rain helped tamp down the lightning-caused fires that through Monday
have burned 63 square miles in the Yukon Delta National Wildlife
Refuge, about 50 miles northeast of the commercial hub town of Bethel
WeatherNation
Signs of Apocalypse
Hundreds
of tar balls have washed up along the southern Texas coast, but
officials have yet to identify the source of the material
A
potentially deadly bacteria that thrives in warm saltwater has
infected at least seven people and killed two so far this year in
Florida, a state health official said today.
"People
can get infected with Vibrio vulnificus when they eat raw shellfish,"
Florida Health Department spokeswoman Mara Burger said in a statement
today. "Since it is naturally found in warm marine waters,
people with open wounds can be exposed to Vibrio vulnificus through
direct contact with seawater."
UK weather: 'Warmest day of the year' could bring severe thunderstorms and giant jellyfish
Temperatures
could hit 28C on what is expected to be the warmest day of the year
tomorrow, but the heat will be bringing severe thunderstorms as well
as swarms of giant jellyfish.
The
south coast of England will be among the hottest parts of the UK on
Friday but anyone taking a dip in the sea is being warned of
unwelcome visitors.
Dr
Simon Boxall, an oceanographer at the University of Southampton, said
the sunshine and showers of recent weeks has caused Britain’s
largest jellyfish to get even larger.
Met Office issues severe WEATHER WARNING across UK: Storms and flash floods expected
BRITAIN
is braced for violent thunderstorms and flash flooding with the mild
weather set to give way to stormy downpours on Friday.
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