Posts
Too
often we see stories that are restricted to one area. Some of the big
stories like drought in California and Brazil;wildfires in Alaska and
Siberia; heatwaves in the Indian sub-continent are well documented.
Other
areas are practically forgotten – such as the Middle East and
Africa and countries like Sri Lanka
I
have endeavoured to find stories from all the continents to
illustrate that global warming is exactly what it says it is –
global
Perhaps
the only place less-effected by drought at present is continental
Europe.
All
the stories are from 2015 or (where indicated) 2014.
A PICTURE OF GLOBAL DROUGHTSeemorerocks
It's Not Just California, It's Worldwide
Drought:
Death by a Thousands Cuts
by
ROBERT HUNZIKER
10
April, 2015
Drought
is like death by a thousand cuts. It steadily but slowly devastates
the countryside long before people recognize an emergency at hand.
Excessive
drought is but one symptom that climate change has turned vicious.
Worldwide
drought conditions are more severe and much quicker to arise than in
the past. Inasmuch as fossil fuels like oil, gas, and coal emit
evermore carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere with concomitant
increasing levels of global warming, the outlook for escalating
drought is clear and imminent.
According
to scientific studies to better understand the matrix of
global-warming-induced drought conditions: “Historical records of
precipitation, stream flow and drought indices all show increased
aridity since 1950 over many land areas… which suggest severe and
widespread droughts in the next 30–90 years over many land areas
resulting from either decreased precipitation and/or increased
evaporation,” Aiguo Dai, Increasing Drought Under Global Warming in
Observations and Models, Nature Climate Change 3, 52-58,
doi:10.1038/inclimate1633, August 5, 2012.
However,
when consideration is given to worldwide droughts as of today, the
operative question should really be whether more “severe and
widespread droughts” can be sustained.
“There
has been a general temperature increase (0.5−2C) during the last
past 150 years, and climate change models predict a marked increase
during the 21st century. It is expected that this will have dramatic
consequences for drought conditions, with an increase in water demand
due to evapotranspiration,” Sergio M. Vicentep-Serrano, et al, A
Multi-Scalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: SPEI,
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecologia, Spanish Commission of Science and
Technology.
Droughts
are not new phenomena. Droughts are part of nature’s course. Be
that as it may, nowadays droughts are no longer just part of nature’s
course.
According to scientific studies, anthropogenic global warming
is at the root of the problem, exacerbating drought conditions on a
worldwide basis.
In
fact, droughts have become a serious problem across the four corners
of the planet.
California
Global
warming is hitting California hard.
California’s
drought is the result of a particularly steadfast blocking ridge over
the Pacific, popularly known as the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, or
‘Triple R’, which prevents rain from reaching California.
Blocking ridges consist of high atmospheric pressure zones that
disrupt wind patterns, substantially altering atmospheric flow; as a
result, regular Pacific storms are re-routed to the north.
A
Stanford research team led by Noah Diffenbaugh, Ph.D. Senior Fellow
at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, issued a
comprehensive study investigating the link between global warming and
California’s drought published in the Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, September 29, 2014.
According
to Bala Rajaratnam, Ph.D. Assistant Professor of Statistics and of
Earth System Science, who collaborated on the study: “We’ve
demonstrated with high statistical confidence that the large-scale
atmospheric conditions, similar to those associated with the Triple
R, are far more likely to occur now than in the climate before we
emitted large amounts of greenhouse gases.”
The
Stanford study points the finger at global warming as a significant
cause of California’s severe drought condition.
Ironically,
California is the 4th largest oil and gas producer in America,
thereby contributing to its own drought by producing CO2-emitting GHG
(Greenhouse Gas). As it happens, California “steps on its own
foot.”
China
According
to China’s State Forestry Administration,
over 27 percent of the country now suffers
from desertification,
more than 1,000,000 square miles, or about one-third of the
continental United States, impacting the lives of more than 400
million people (Source:
Luan Dong, At the Desert’s Edge Gives a Glimpse of China’s
Massive Desertification Challenge, China Environment Forum//Eye On,
June 17, 2013).
Remarkably,
China’s drought impacts as many people as live in all of North
America.
Scientists
claim global warming is changing China’s climate. Studies have
found the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, not the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation as previously thought, dominating its influence on
China’s drought conditions. According to scientists, this
oscillation shift, which is causing severe drought, is the result of
global warming. (Source: Nadya Anscombe, Atlantic Multi-Decadal
Oscillation Dominates Chinese Droughts, Environmental Research Web-
News, March 12, 2015).
Chinese
“farmers and water-hungry industries have been wrestling with a
long-term water crisis that has dried up more than half the country’s
50,000 significant rivers and left hundreds of cities facing what the
government classifies as a ‘serious scarcity’ of water,”
Drought Worsens China’s Long-Term Water Crisis,
Science/Environment, NBC News, Sept. 24, 2014.
Twenty-five
thousand “significant rivers drying up” and hundreds of cities
experiencing “serious scarcity of water” is beyond belief,
unimaginable but real.
As
it happens, burning fossil fuel has dramatically affected China’s
climate at the expense of water supplies for agriculture and for
industry, meanwhile desertification steadily consumes the northern
countryside as the drought threatens to overwhelm important areas of
agriculture.
Over
time, where will China turn for food staples for a population as
large as the EU, North America and South America combined?
India
Global
warming’s impact on India’s drought threatens the food supply for
countless millions of people. Imagine this: A county of over one
billion people with 25% of the land turned to desert. India is such a
country.
“Worsening
droughts in India are having an impact on the desertification trend,
as vegetation dries up and is often never replaced… India’s
environment minister, Prakash Javadekar, said that up to 25% of the
country was now desert,” Kenneth Rapoza, Worsening Droughts Add To
India’s Desertification Problem, Forbes, June 18, 2014.
India’s
drought in the “context of global warming” is explained, as
follows: “In this study, changes in total dry days, prolonged dry
spells, light precipitation, and risk of drought as indicated by
Modified Palmer Index (MPI) over India during six decades
(1951–2010) are examined quantitatively in the context of global
warming. It is found that there are increases of 49% ± 21% and 33% ±
17% in prolonged dry spells and total dry days, respectively, over
India for each degree Kelvin (K) increase in global mean
temperature,” Anoop Mishra, et al, Changes in Precipitation Pattern
and Risk of Drought Over India in the Context of Global Warming,
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119, 7833-7841, doe:
10:1002/2014JDO21471, July 2, 2014.
Taiwan
In
Taiwan drought conditions have forced a cut off of water supplies for
two days each week in northern regions. Global warming is the
problem.
Water
supplies are now rationed for two days per week for an indefinite
period of time. Rainfall across the island is the lowest since 1947.
The vast Shihmen main reservoir is at only 24.5% of capacity. The dry
spell is forecast to continue, and it is entirely possible the
monsoon rains may not happen this year. Similar to China, Taiwanese
climate is changing as a result of global warming.
The
number of rain days has decreased significantly in Taiwan over the
past 100, 50, and 30 years with the rate of decrease accelerating per
decade as extreme dry spells have occurred more frequently in the
past 30 years than in any other measured period. Furthermore,
monsoons, a regular feature of Taiwanese weather systems, weaken from
global warming (Source: Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, et al Climate Change in
Taiwan, Scientific Report 2011, National Science Council, Taipei,
Taiwan).
As
water rationing spreads in Taiwan, up to three million people will be
without water on given days (Source: Cindy Sui, Tackling Taiwan’s
Water Shortages, BBC News, April 8, 2015).
The
World’s Climate System is Changing because of Fossil Fuel CO2
Emissions
“This
pattern of intense rain and snowstorms and periods of drought is
becoming the new normal in our everyday weather as levels of
heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere continue to rise,” Union of
Concerned Scientists.
“As
the climate system changes in accordance to more CO2 we realize that
by polluting our atmosphere we literally pull the carpet out from
under our own feet,” Climate Change Impacts: Floods and Droughts,
WWF Global.
Divestment
Because
the use of fossil fuel ultimately serves to aggravate as well as
cause drought, simple logic says eliminating fossil fuel is one
answer to the problem.
According
to a thorough study of worldwide divestment movements, “The
movement to divest from fossil fuels and invest in clean alternatives
has gained remarkable speed. It was born in 2011 on just half a dozen
college campuses where the students called on their administrations
to divest endowments from coal and other fossil fuels. Today, a
diverse group of students, philanthropies, and grassroots and
environmental organizations from around the globe are driving the
movement,” Arabella Advisors, founded by Eric Kessler in 2005 to
provide strategic guidance for effective philanthropy.
Already,
divestment commitments have shown remarkable growth in only four
years represented by more than one-half billion people, or 7% of
world population.
Recently,
The Guardian, one of the world’s most influential news
organizations joined 350.org’s divestment movement as a partner in
the “Keep it in the Ground” campaign. Within 24 hours, over
75,000 people joined the effort.
Significantly,
Stuart Scott, IESCO, Deputy Director General and member of the Arctic
Methane Emergency Group, is working on a key strategic agreement in
Norway where it is hoped the entire country will commit to
divestment.
“Divest
Norway” signature endorsements by individuals from around the world
actively build support for the
movement:DivestNorway.org/add-your-voice
Severe
Drought Haunts the Planet on all Continents.
“The
chances of a 35-year or longer “megadrought” striking the
Southwest and central Great Plains by 2100 are above 80 percent if
the world stays on its current trajectory of greenhouse gas
emissions, scientists from NASA, Columbia University, and Cornell
University report in a study,” Science Advances, February 2015.
Australia’s
“Big Dry” sucked up $4.5 billion in federal government drought
assistance from 1995 to 2012. Spain just experienced the worst
drought since record keeping began 150 years ago, losing 54% of 2014
crops. Brazil’s drought is the worst in 80 years. Sao Paulo is
rationing water for 22 million people. Istanbul’s (pop. 14 million)
water reservoirs are at 22% of capacity. The list goes on, and on.
All
across the planet drought continues with a relentlessness that chills
to the bone. People are aware, and thus, divestment movements are the
leading edge towards influencing governments to take corrective
action by embracing renewable energy to replace fossil fuel
subsidies. Something must be done!
North
and South America
Five
Western Washington counties are in a "severe drought,"
according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, putting boths sides of the
Cascades on course to become federal disaster areas.
The
drought worsened Thursday in Washington, with 18 eastern counties
declared federal disaster areas and the drought officially becoming
more widespread and severe on the westside.
Saskatchewan
will no longer be able avoid the consequences of scarce rainfall as
it enters a week of hot weather.
“Any
bead of perspiration on your brow will be sucked up by the
atmosphere. I mean this air is so bone dry,” said David Phillips,
senior climatologist with Environment Canada.
Saskatoon
is going through the driest March-to-June stretch on record, which
Phillips said counts as a drought. Total precipitation in the city
through that time has been 40 millimetres — about a third of the
normal total of 134. The previous driest stretch — records date
back to 1892 — was 61.9 mm in 1937.
Alaska
is nearing the peak of its all-important tourist season, when the
land of the "midnight sun" beckons cruise ship passengers
and hiking enthusiasts with its mountains and abundant wildlife. Yet
instead of sunny skies lasting late into the night, like June usually
brings, the air over much of the state has been filled with
eye-burning smoke, with more than 300 individual fires burning as of
Thursday.
More
than 428,000 acres have gone up in smoke so far this season,
according to a report from the Alaska Interagency Coordination
Center, which is an area larger than the city of Los Angeles.
Century
of Water Shortage Ahead? Lake Mead Drops Below Rationing Line For
First Time in Its History.
After
four years of low rainfall Brazil's commercial capital, Sao Paulo, is
suffering from a grim combination of high temperatures and water
shortages, writes Leila Carvalho. And now the drought has given rise
to a lethal plague of dengue fever....
Citizens
of one of the most densely populated areas in South America - the Sao
Paulo metropolitan area (SPMA) in southeastern Brazil - are
struggling with one of the nastiest water crises in decades.
With
over 20 million people and the main financial and economic center of
Brazil, this region is under the influence of the South American
monsoon system and receives the largest fraction of its precipitation
during the Austral summer, from October to March.
India,
Pakistan, Sri Lanka
A
killer heat wave left almost 2,000 people dead in India ahead of the
annual monsoon season, but that kind of extreme heat isn't expected
during the season which just got underway.
As
the monsoon advances northward, there will be some relief, but there
is still the threat for more extreme heat in central and northern
India over the next week or two until the monsoon arrives,
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said.
Children
are bearing the brunt of the drought in Tharparkar, often the first
to fall victim to diarrhoea and pneumonia brought on by malnutrition
The Disaster Management Centre says that 1,150,728 persons have been affected by the drought in six provinces in the country.
People of drought hit areas, including Polonnaruwa and Medirigirya, are facing economic hardships as they have been made to purchase bottled water.
Europe
and Russia
Summary
- The grain belt in Russia and eastern Ukraine is suffering through drought and now below-normal cold.
- Experts on Russian agriculture are now forecasting a substantial drop in winter wheat production in the 2015-16 crop year.
- The drought is spreading in the region, which is supportive of higher wheat prices, already at 5-month highs.
Excessive dryness continues to be a concern for crops in the Volga Valley region of Russia and western parts of Kazakhstan, fuelling concerns that the wheat crop there could fall short of expectations.
Asia
and China
"In addition to the higher-than-average number of typhoons expected, we also anticipate more long-tracking typhoons, which will have a greater chance of being strong and impacting multiple land areas along their path," Sagliani said.
A significant impact would be landfall or the remnants of a tropical system causing major flooding, damage and potential loss of life.
An
Indian farmer pushes his bicycle past a parched paddy field in Ranbir
Singh Pura, about 34 km (21 miles) from Jammu, India, Tuesday, July
15, 2014. Delayed monsoon rains in 2014 raised fears of drought in
some regions with India's meteorological department reporting an
acute deficit in rainfall in many areas. (AP Photo/Channi Anand)
Chinese farmers have lost an estimated $1.2 billion due to drought
China's solution to the water shortage in the north is to take water from the south. In December, the central section was completed, and water started flowing to Beijing from Danjiangkou. The project is a controversial one that’s been debated for half a century, and has taken over a decade to build. The government believes it’s the best and only choice
Asia
Summer Forecast: India Drought May Impact Over One Billion People;
Active Typhoon Season Expected
30
May, 2015
A
very active typhoon season, combined with drought in much of India,
could have a significant impact on lives and property for more than a
billion people in Asia during the summer of 2015.
According
to AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls, "A
phenomenon known as El Niño is forecast to strengthen over the
summer."
El
Niño is a warm phase of the fluctuation of sea surface temperatures
in the tropical Pacific Ocean and usually leads to an above-average
number of typhoons and super typhoons.
How
strong El Niño becomes along with other anticipated factors will
determine the severity of impacts on the weather across southern and
eastern Asia.
According
to AccuWeather Meteorologist Anthony Sagliani, "In addition to
El Niño, we have warmer-than-average waters extending well north and
west of the tropics in the Pacific, which will create lower
atmospheric pressure and a favorable environment for tropical system
formation."
There
is no way to predict accurately the timing, strength and location of
individual tropical systems months in advance. AccuWeather will
provide updates on where individual storms may form farther along
into the season and the forecast track after they have developed.
"In addition to the higher-than-average number of typhoons expected, we also anticipate more long-tracking typhoons, which will have a greater chance of being strong and impacting multiple land areas along their path," Sagliani said.
Some
of the typhoons will turn east of the Philippines and Japan. However,
because of the large amount of systems expected, a number of them
could bring significant impact to the Philippines, Japan, Taiwan and
perhaps mainland China.
A significant impact would be landfall or the remnants of a tropical system causing major flooding, damage and potential loss of life.
As
the Pacific Basin churns out typhoons this summer and autumn,
conditions over the Indian Ocean Basin will likely displace and
disrupt the monsoon.
"El
Niño conditions tend to lead to below-normal rainfall across much of
India during the monsoon," Nicholls said.
An
Indian farmer pushes his bicycle past a parched paddy field in Ranbir
Singh Pura, about 34 km (21 miles) from Jammu, India, Tuesday, July
15, 2014. Delayed monsoon rains in 2014 raised fears of drought in
some regions with India's meteorological department reporting an
acute deficit in rainfall in many areas. (AP Photo/Channi Anand)
According
to a report by the European
Commission,
India has the second-largest plowable land area in the globe, after
the United States and is one of the world's leading producers of
paddy rice, wheat and sugar can.
"While
there will be some rainfall on the region, the pattern could evolve
into significant drought and negatively impact agriculture from
central India to much of Pakistan," Nicholls said.
A
key to how severe and long-lasting the drought may be in India may be
water temperatures in the western part of the Indian Ocean.
"If
water temperatures in the western part of the Indian Ocean warm more
quickly than anticipated, then rainfall will be enhanced across
India, thus alleviating drought fears," Nicholls said.
Limited
rainfall is also anticipated in Indonesia.
Much
of the balance of Asia is forecast to experience near- to
above-average temperatures this summer.
In
addition to India and Pakistan being drier than average, a large area
of dry conditions may develop from near the Black Sea and around
Turkey to the Caspian Sea and into western Kazakhstan.
Near-average
rainfall is forecast from Iraq to Iran and Afghanistan to
west-central China and Mongolia.
Areas
that are likely to be wetter than average include Japan, the northern
Philippines and the Yangtze Valley of China.
"The
Yangtze Valley is typically an active area for warm season showers
and thunderstorms, but this summer will tend to be more active than
usual due in part to El Niño," Nicholls said.
Locations
that are likely to experience rounds of wet weather include
Manchuria, as well as northeastern, southern and northwestern
portions of China.
Chinese farmers have lost an estimated $1.2 billion due to drought
The
corn has grown to only half its normal height on Yan Shuqin's ranch
in the hills of Inner Mongolia this year, as a swath of northern
China suffers its worst drought in 60 years.
China's solution to the water shortage in the north is to take water from the south. In December, the central section was completed, and water started flowing to Beijing from Danjiangkou. The project is a controversial one that’s been debated for half a century, and has taken over a decade to build. The government believes it’s the best and only choice
"The issue is very serious. Every other year drought or other natural disaster puts millions of people into food insecurity," Abdul Majeed Qarar, spokesman for the Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock Ministry, said.
As
dry season begins drought expected in at least 30 provinces with
water stored in reservoirs at lowest in 15 years. Affected farmers
hired to work on state projects
A
little more than three years after a flood of seemingly biblical
proportions cut a destructive swathe through its agricultural and
manufacturing industries the Thailand agricultural sector is again
under threat, this time from drought.
Since
late last year farmers in the north of the country have been warning
(and been warned) of water shortages, up to six months earlier than
normal, with one village headman at the time saying rivers were
running dry. Rivers had not run dry for more than a decade.
(See: Thai
Economy Loses $12 billion in 2014 – What’s Ahead for 2015?
(Updated))
As
dry season begins drought expected in at least 30 provinces with
water stored in reservoirs at lowest in 15 years. Affected farmers
hired to work on state projects
Middle
East
Climate
change, with less rainfall each year, is blamed, but so too is human
error and government mismanagement.
Iran's
reservoirs are only 40 percent full according to official figures,
and nine cities including the capital Tehran are threatened with
water restrictions after dry winters.
The
situation is more critical in Sistan-Baluchistan, the most dangerous
area in Iran, where a Sunni minority is centred in towns and villages
that border Pakistan and Afghanistan.
But
make no mistake: The city is dry. Its underground water supplies are
depleted, and officials have long warned that, one day, the trees
will dry up and water might need to be rationed.
Outside
Tehran the situation is much worse, and some experts predict that the
south will become uninhabitable if the drought persists.
While
Israelis water their lawns and swim in Olympic-sized pools,
Palestinians a few kilometers away are literally dying of thirst.
Research
provides first deep look at how global warming may already influence
armed conflict
Oceania
About thirty thousand people living on Kiribati's southern islands are having to carry water some distance for household use
The government says it will intervene if the current drought continues. Fruit trees including taro and coconuts are the worst affected. Coconuts for copra production is the only source of revenue for the outer islands. Director of Kiribati Meteorological Service Moreti Tibriano helped develop the government's strategic drought plans
Tonga working on drought response
A working group has been established in Tonga to respond to the current drought conditions.
18 May 2015
T
The director of Meterology in Tonga, Ofa Faanunu, says Tonga is coming into its dry season, but has already been experiencing drought conditions for eight months.
Mr Faanunu says the national emergency management committee met last week to discuss the conditions, and a working group was set up.
"We've recorded the driest April in our records here in Tongatapu. With the forecast as it is, we are taking precautions and trying to come up with measures and trying to mitigate the effects of this drought, if it will continue."
Ofa Faanunu says they expect drier than normal conditions during El Nino periods, and they will be preparing for the long term when when the working group meets this week
26 September 2014
Reports from Fiji say the country is rapidly approaching a state of drought, with no substantial rainfall since the 17th of May.
The director of the Fiji Meteorological Service, Alipate Waqaicelua, says there is no indication that rain will arrive soon.
He says hydro-electric power plants estimate another month before water levels reach critical levels and the government is already making supplementary diesel generators available.
A meeting today is expected to decide whether to declare a drought.
The Fiji Water Authority CEO, Opetaia Ravai, says the situation is under control and there are no official water restrictions in place yet.
But he says two of the three main water sources supplying Suva are below the critical level, and many in western residential areas need supplementary truck deliveries of water.
He says some rural villages and outer islands have also requested water deliveries and this is being barged to them by the Government.
Mr Ravia says the MET Service has reported the dry spell will continue until January next year.
Drought
worsens in Queensland s central-west
Total
area drought declared is 80.35% of state, eclipsing the previous
record of 79.01% in March 2014 – during the same drought
Farmers
in north Canterbury are facing a two to three year recovery as a
result of the ongoing drought.
Concern
about the financial implications of the drought is growing, because
many farmers have had to sell capital stock, while others are worried
about the winter feed situation
Africa
Reports from one of the most-effected, and most- forgotten parts of the world
Global
weather system that plays havoc with weather across the world could
exacerbate region’s dry spell and devastate Sahel as it did in 1972
A
global weather phenomenon could cause a famine in the Sahel this year
by combining with already dry conditions to create a “double
whammy” for the region, scientists and aid groups have warned.
The
impact is looking particularly serious for Zimbabwe, where the
economy has been struggling for years.
The
amount of water available is said to have dropped below 30% and the
numbers could fall lower
The
KwaZulu-Natal government on Thursday said drought conditions had
reached a critical stage.
Dam
water levels, which are said to be the lowest in 13 years, started to
decline in October 2013 when the province received minimal rainfall
for two seasons.
The
WFP says severe drought is affecting the 'maize belt' of South
Africa.
Southern
Africa faces possible food shortages over the next few months due to
a severe drought in the 'maize belt' of South Africa, where a lack of
rain had caused crop failure rates of over 50 percent, the World Food
Programme (WFP) said on Monday
White
and yellow corn in South Africa, the continent’s biggest producer
of the grains, surged after the Crop Estimates Committee said this
year’s drought-hit harvest would be the smallest since 2007.
In
sub-Saharan Africa, drought spreads disease, including the
still-rampant HIV virus. The phenomenon is more sociological than
ecological: Slim harvests slash farmers’ incomes, forcing them to
find new ways to earn money. Some turn to sex, according to a new
study in The Economic Journal
Acting
permanent secretary in Ministry of Local Government and Rural
Development Halakangwa Mbulai on Friday said President Ian Khama has
declared that the whole country is drought stricken.She said
following the Drought and Household Food Security Outlook conducted
from 23rd March to 10th April 2015, findings of the assessment
indicate that there was a significant decline in the rainfall
distribution.
Mbulai
said the decline in rainfall distribution was coupled with scorching
heat wave resulting in low hectarage ploughed/planted.
While
researchers are working to stem diseases that attack the cacao trees,
which produce the beans used to make chocolate, another problem is
looming in a potential worldwide chocolate shortage: drought.
Meanwhile,
the demand for chocolate is growing worldwide. Farmers are producing
less cocoa than the world eats, creating a deficit, according to
Bloomberg.
The
chocolate deficit is expected to grow to 1 million metric tons by
2020 and to 2 million metric tons a year by 2030, Bloomberg reported.
Last but certainly not least....
Last but certainly not least....
Mega-Drought
2015: Worst In 1000 Years?
NASA
scientists used tree rings to understand past droughts. While current
droughts are set to last longer today,and for the future, than in the
past 1000 years.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.