El-Nino in New Zealand

DON'T MENTION THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM.

Kevin Hester’s letter to the editor:

"I note that the front page headline in yesterday’s Herald was titled “ What’s going on with the weather?” 

What is going on is the early stages of abrupt climate change. 

I must comment that in the interesting article the term climate change wasn’t mentioned. With what is now 0.85C above baseline, we are seeing many bouts of extreme weather, we have a future certain now to exceed the I.P.C.C. arbitrary target of limiting our planetary temperature increase to 2C. 

Dr James E Hansen said 2C was to high and 1.5C was the limit before will experience climate disruption. 

For this student of abrupt climate change and considering the recent revelations from Shell Petroleum of 4C being “ baked-in” in the near term and 6C longer term I believe we need to keep discussing these weather events in the context of abrupt climate change"

What’s going on with the weather?

Experts say El Nino pattern will bring droughts, but also more storms and heavier rain.

Barry McCone clambers out of a slip which his car rolled into on the Otago Peninsula, quickly followed by another car. Nobody was hurt. Photo / ODT

NZ Herald,

6 June, 2015

Lightning strikes and torrential rain which caused floods and slips this week look to be replaced by drier, more predictable weather by tomorrow.

But with an El Nino pattern developing, experts say New Zealanders should expect more storms, and an increasingly warm atmosphere will bring both heavier rain and droughts.

Wild weather has hit many parts of the country this week, especially in Dunedin where rain fell consistently for 17 hours, generating 175mm in the 24 hours to 4am yesterday.

The storm caused severe surface flooding and dangerous slips forced the closure of several main roads. Many homes and businesses have been left sodden.

Marty Duffy's kitchen in Dunedin was left hanging in mid-air when a "canyon" opened up on his section on Wednesday. He and his pets were evacuated after the slip sent 200 tonnes of earth on to his driveway.

That same night three people were lucky to avoid injury after part of Highcliff Rd on the Otago Peninsula slipped away.

Barry McCone's car flipped upside down when he crashed into the hole while driving home alone from work. Soon after he was joined by a second car which came to rest against his.

Earlier in the week, Northland and Auckland were slammed by a powerful electrical storm, followed by another downpour on Wednesday when 15mm of rain fell in an hour, flooding a laboratory at Auckland City Hospital and collapsing the ceiling of a home in Devonport.

The worst of the rain has now eased as the low that affected the country moves east - but a few showers are expected to linger in some places over the weekend.

Aucklanders can expect the weather to become more predictable and hopefully drier over the next week.

WeatherWatch's Philip Duncan said it might seem as if New Zealand was experiencing more extreme weather than usual but we are just more aware of it now.

"Certainly with smartphones and the internet people can take photos and videos of every event - so from a news point of view we get much more content and therefore every weather event now is a news story." However, the increasing temperature of the planet meant more rainfall was likely in the future, he said.

"Those who watch tropical cyclones will know a one or two degree difference in the ocean temperature can be the difference between a category five storm like Cyclone Pam and a small low that causes little damage."

Dr James Renwick, a climate scientist at Victoria University, said New Zealand's recent bout of stormy weather, particularly the flooding in Dunedin and also on the Kapiti Coast, was an example of two extreme bouts of rain coming close together.

"There's no sign that we're going to get more storms - it's just that when they arrive they tend to be more vigorous, so they're a bigger deal when they happen. But any idea that we'll have a continuous string of big rainstorms is not the picture of the future at all."

He said weather would be more extreme, with heavier downpours in wet western areas and more intense droughts in eastern dry areas.

El Nino started to develop about a month ago, which normally means more stormy weather in New Zealand, but Dr Renwick said it shouldn't have made a real difference yet.

"

New Zealand Insurance Council chief executive Tim Grafton said last year $147.9 million was paid out for weather-related claims and in 2013 the total was $206.4 million.

So far this year, $2.29 million had been paid out, including $1.45 million for Cyclone Pam.