a rather dynamic and quite cooler period through early July, a sharp
flip in the pattern is shaping up on both global models. Yet another
significant heat wave is likely to develop through the next week as
strong ridge establishes over west-central Europe. Afternoon
temperatures are likely to climb into 35-40 °C in some areas again!
are in a good agreement in the development of an extensive upper
ridge after Sunday, as a high-pressure system over Azores (Azores
High) strengthens and merges with a strengthening upper ridge and an
associated surface anticyclone over central Europe. By Monday, ridge
intensifies over western and central Europe while deep trough sits
over the N Atlantic. A strong warm advection forms over SW Europe
with a classic Spanish plume pattern bringing much warmer weather
into western Europe through the early next week, spreading into
central Europe towards the next weekend.
July 22nd & Tuesday, July 23rd
strengthening upper ridge is centered over France and Benelux,
resulting in much warmer weather over the region. Actually, almost
the whole Europe except far eastern parts and N Atlantic should
experience above normal geopotential height and therefore warmer
weather than average. The highest anomaly is expected over France,
Benelux and W Germany, partly also over Iberia.
strong and extensive ridge gradually expands east/northeast into
central and northern Europe with still very strong temperature
anomaly over France and Benelux, approaching 9-10 °C above normal.
By mid/late July, this means peak afternoon temperature above 35 °C
in many areas.
the weekend, ridge axis is likely to move over central Europe,
meaning the heat will also spread into the Alpine region, Balkans and
at least N Mediterranean, as well as towards Scandinavia. While the
overall trends are in relatively good agreement regarding the heat
wave development, some uncertainties exist how intense the heat will
be in these regions. With rather dry conditions and lacking moisture
advection, potential exists for a significant dry heat.
model peak temperatures across France through mid next week – some
areas will likely approach +40 °C or even exceed this threshold
locally! Nevertheless, extreme heat with much above 35 °C afternoon
temperatures is expected!
meteograms for Paris (France) and Brussels (Belgium) indicate a quite
significant 850 mbar temperature anomaly, with near 10 °C above
normal daily average for mid July over France. Further trends suggest
the heat wave will likely extend through the last days of July as
are closely monitoring the evolution of this potentially significant
heat wave over Europe. As drought has been developing in some areas,
conditions are favorable for dangerous wildfires as well – stay
tuned for updates soon!