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I am a bit slow on the uptake and cannot take in articles immediately so it helps me to absorb them in bits/
I hope this helps this to bring the whole reality home to you too.
Many thanks to Sam Carana whose work I have reworked for this
The image below shows sea surface temperatures on July 6 for the years 2014 to 2018 at a location near Svalbard (at 77.958°N, 5.545°E), with an exponential trend added based on the data.
To provide context a fairly average temperature for Cook Strait, New Zealand, between the North and South Islands, where I live is 14 degrees Celsius (57 degrees Fahrenheit).
Meanwhile, sea ice extent doesn't fall very much at all.
Complete
disappearance of Arctic sea ice in September 2018 is within the
margins of a trend based on yearly annual minimum volume, as
illustrated by the image below.
I hope this helps this to bring the whole reality home to you too.
Many thanks to Sam Carana whose work I have reworked for this
The
sudden and startling disappearance of Arctic sea ice
The image below shows sea surface temperatures on July 6 for the years 2014 to 2018 at a location near Svalbard (at 77.958°N, 5.545°E), with an exponential trend added based on the data.
The
combination image below shows sea surface temperatures on July 6 for
each of these years:
2014:
-0.8°C or 30.6°F
2015:
6.2°C or 43.2°F
2016:
8.3°C or 47.0°F
2017:
14.4°C or 57.9°F
2018:
16.6°C or 61.9°F
To provide context a fairly average temperature for Cook Strait, New Zealand, between the North and South Islands, where I live is 14 degrees Celsius (57 degrees Fahrenheit).
It is at 41"
S whereas Svalbard is at 78.22"
N
The
situation reflects the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice over the
years.
The
animation below shows a fall in volume of some 1 meter over
most of the sea ice, over the period from June 21 through July 12,
2018, with a further eight days of forecasts added.
The
animation illustrates the huge amount of melting taking place from
underneath, due to an inflow of heat from the Atlantic Ocean and the
Pacific Ocean, and from warm water from rivers that end in the Arctic
Ocean.
When
only looking at sea ice extent, the dramatic fall in sea ice volume
may be overlooked.
Most commentators talk about sea ice extent which is surface ice, affected more directly by the weather.
Most commentators talk about sea ice extent which is surface ice, affected more directly by the weather.
Meanwhile,
here is the sea ice concentraton for today.
Much of the Arctic ice is getting down to 40% ice concentration. There is very little ice left at 100% concentration.
This has all happened in the course of a few short weeks.
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Sometimes
it is good to hear from a non-specialistHere is an up-to-date report
from Margot who is following this very closely.
Here
is an up-to-date report from Margot that explains all this -
There is no justification for fitting temperatures to an exponential trend.
ReplyDeleteBut I see you censor comments.
The only comments I censor are ones that are abusive and add nothing to the discussion.
Delete