France In Free Fall
8
January, 2019
- French officials evidently understand that the terrorists are engaged in a long war and that it will be difficult to stop them; so they seem to have given in. These officials are no doubt aware that young French Muslims are being radicalized in increasing numbers. The response, however, has been to strengthen Muslim institutions in France.
- At the time President Macron was speaking, one of his emissaries was in Morocco to sign the UN Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, which defines immigration as "beneficial" for the host countries. Under it, signatory states pledge to "strengthen migrant-inclusive service delivery systems."
- A group of retired generals published an open letter, saying that signing the Global Compact was a further step towards "the abandonment of national sovereignty" and noted that "80% of the French population think that immigration must be halted or regulated drastically".
- The author Éric Zemmour described the "yellow vests" revolt as the result of the "despair of people who feel humiliated, forgotten, dispossessed of their own country by the decisions of a contemptuous caste".
French
President Emmanuel Macron seems to hope that weariness will lead the
"yellow vests" protestors to give up, but there seems no
sign of it yet. On the contrary, the "yellow vests" seem
dedicated to bringing him down. Pictured: "Yellow vests"
protesters on December 15, 2018 in Paris, France. (Photo by Veronique
de Viguerie/Getty Images)
Strasbourg,
France. Christmas market. December 11th, 8pm. A man shouting, "Allahu
Akbar" ("Allah is the greatest") shoots at
passersby, then wounds several with a knife. He murders three people
on the spot and wounds a dozen others, some severely.
Two will later die of their wounds. The murderer escapes. Two days
later, the police shoot him dead.
He
was known to
the police. When members of the General Directorate of Internal
Security and some gendarmes came
to his home a few hours earlier, he had escaped. Although they knew
he was an armed and dangerous Islamist ready to act, and that
Christmas markets had been, and could be, likely targets, no
surveillance was in place.
The
murderer, Cherif Chekatt, should, in fact, have been kept off the
streets. He was 29 years old, his name was on the list of people
reported for terrorist radicalization (FSPRT),
and he and had already been sentenced for
crimes 27 times. He was nevertheless roaming around free, with no
police oversight.
His
case is similar to that of many jihadi terrorists in France in the
last decade. Others
include Mohamed
Merah,
who murdered Jewish children in Toulouse in 2012; Cherif and
Said Kouachi,
who murdered most of the staff at the satirical magazine Charlie
Hebdo in
2015, and Amedy Coulibaly,
who murdered people at a kosher supermarket few days later.
Successive
governments have done exactly nothing to remedy the
situation. Instead,
they delivered speeches and stationed soldiers about
the streets. "Young French people must get used to living with
the threat of attacks", then-Prime Minister Manuel Valls said in
2015. Two years later, just before the first round of the
presidential elections, Emmanuel Macron, still a candidate, used
almost the same words. Terrorism, he said,
is "imponderable" and will constitute a "threat that
will be part of the daily life of the French for the years to come".
French
laws are extremely lax. Even
serial killers and terrorists are not sentenced to long prison terms.
Most prisons have
become jihadist recruiting stations. Currently, more than 600 no-go
zones are
under the control of imams and Muslim gangs. Islamists, apparently
"ready to act", number in the thousands.
The police simply do not have the personnel or material resources to
monitor all of them
The
only political leaders who have proposed tougher
laws against
terrorism, or who have said that exceptional measures were needed --
such as a wider use of electronic ankle-bracelets -- to counter
increasing threats, come from parties considered "right-wing". The
mainstream media immediately branded these leaders as "extremists"
and their proposals were dismissed.
Macron
and his government continue their unfortunate tradition of submitting
to political correctness. It seems they prefer to appease extremists
rather than confront them.
These
politicians are undoubtedly aware that more riots could take place.
In 2016, the head of the French General Directorate for internal
Security, Patrick Calvar, spoke of
a high risk of "clashes between communities", perhaps even
civil war.
These
officials evidently understand that the terrorists are engaged in a
long war and that it will be difficult to stop them; so they seem to
have given in. These officials are no doubt aware that young French
Muslims are being radicalized in
increasing numbers. The response, however, has been
to strengthen Muslim
institutions in France.
Although
these officials also presumably see that Muslim immigration into
France continues,
and that hundreds of thousands of illegal Muslim migrants are
creating increased security concerns, they do nothing to reverse the
trend. The number of deportations is rising, but are still rare:
slightly more than 26,000
persons were
deported in 2017. Meanwhile, more than 150,000 illegal
immigrants live in
Seine Saint Denis, near Paris. Macron, since becoming President, has
repeatedly said that those who call on him to expel illegal
immigrants are "xenophobic".
Macron
and the current government, in fact, have been encouraging more
migration: all illegal immigrants in France receive financial
assistance if they ask for it, as well as free
health care;
and they run almost no risk of being deported.
Each
year, more than 200,000 residence permits are issued (262,000
in 2017), including to illegal immigrants. Many have no marketable
skills, some receive for decades the minimum
income paid
to anyone in difficulty.
Social
support for migrants, legal or not, adds to the cost of an
increasingly expensive welfare system. France today is the most
highly taxed country
in the developed world: compulsory levies correspond to more than 45%
of GDP. Unemployment is
high at 9.1%. Typical salaries are
both low and stagnant.
A public school teacher starting out earns 1,794 euros per month ($2,052). A police officer after a year of service earns even less: 1,666 euros per month ($1,906).
A public school teacher starting out earns 1,794 euros per month ($2,052). A police officer after a year of service earns even less: 1,666 euros per month ($1,906).
Macron,
when elected president, promised to boost growth and improve
purchasing power.To
encourage large and multinational companies to invest in France, he
lowered their taxes and eliminated a tax
on wealth.
As he apparently did not wish to increase the French budget
deficit (2.6%
in 2017), he created new
taxes and increased a
few of the taxes paid by the entire population, including fuel taxes.
It
was in this context that the "yellow vest" ("gilets
jaunes") protestors – who have been rioting throughout France
for the eight weekends, came into being.
They have vowed to keep
on demonstrating.
The
new taxes, plus the increase in existing taxes, have led many people
into real financial
straits.
Many also saw the reduction of taxes on large companies coupled with
the removal of the wealth tax for the rich as outrageously unfair.
They see perfectly well that a lack
of security is
spreading, that immigration is exploding and that the government is
not providing sufficient law and order.
Macron's remarks, such as a comparing "those who are successful and those who are nothing" -- or his assertion that "the life of an entrepreneur is much harder than that of an employee" -- gave him the image of an arrogant upstart who despises the poor and knows nothing about the problems they face. Some of his utterances -- such as, "there is not a French culture" or the French are Gauls"resistant to change" -- led many to believe that he did not even have respect for the French or for France.
The
proliferation of speed radars on the roads, and the lowering of the
speed limit to 80km/h,
apart from freeways, as well as a noticeable increase in speeding
tickets as
a result, also did nothing to help his approval ratings.
The
first protest by the "yellow vests", which took place
on November
17,
spontaneously gathered hundreds of thousands of people across the
country and had the support of more than
80% of the population.
Rather
than react quickly and say that he understood the difficulties of
millions of French, Macron waited 10 days until
a second demonstration,
bigger than the first, to respond. He then delivered
a speech focusing
on the environment and emphasizing that fuel taxes were necessary to
fight "climate change".
Four
days later, on December
1,
a third demonstration drew even more people than the second.
Protestors waved French flags and sang the national
anthem.
People who spoke on television said that Macron had made fun of them and reminded him of his promises. They demanded his resignation, new elections, and a return of sovereignty to the people.
People who spoke on television said that Macron had made fun of them and reminded him of his promises. They demanded his resignation, new elections, and a return of sovereignty to the people.
Gangs from
the suburbs looted stores
and destroyed property. The police were particularly brutal to
the protesters, but could not stop the looting or destruction.
Macron
said nothing.
On
December 8, the day of the fourth demonstration, Paris was
effectively set under siege. Armored
vehicles were
deployed along the main avenues.
Thousands of police officers sealed off access to the neighborhood of the presidential residence, the Élysée Palace. A helicopter waited in the courtyard of the Élysée Palace, in case Macron needed to be evacuated. Looting and destruction began again.
Thousands of police officers sealed off access to the neighborhood of the presidential residence, the Élysée Palace. A helicopter waited in the courtyard of the Élysée Palace, in case Macron needed to be evacuated. Looting and destruction began again.
When
Macron finally decided to say something, on December 10,
he announced a
slight increase in the minimum wage and the removal of some taxes. He
promised to open a
"national debate" and announced the need to review the
rules for immigration.
However, at the time Macron was speaking, one of his emissaries was
in Morocco on behalf of France to sign the
UN Global
Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration,
which defines immigration as "beneficial"
for the host countries. Under it, signatory states pledge to
"strengthen migrant-inclusive service delivery systems."
The next day, the terrorist attack near
a Christmas market in Strasbourg took place, in which five people
were murdered.
The
public's anger did not subside. The
"yellow vest" protestors who spoke on television the
following days said that Macron had evidently not taken the measure of
what they were saying. They stated that talking about reviewing the
rules for immigration while signing the Global Compact -- without
taking into account the opinion of the population -- showed that
Macron was a liar.
A
group of retired generals published an open
letter,
saying that signing the Global Compact was a further step towards
"the abandonment of national sovereignty" and noted that
"80% of the French population think that immigration must be
halted or regulated drastically".
"In
deciding alone to sign this pact," the generals wrote,
"... You are guilty of a denial of democracy, even treason, with
respect the nation".
The
Minister of Defense, Florence Parly, said that
the generals' letter was "inadmissible and unworthy", but
did not dispute the arguments it set forth. Again, Macron said
nothing.
On December
22,
when the fifth demonstration of the "yellow vests" took
place, even though the protestors were fewer, their anger seemed
more intense. Calls
for Macron's resignation came from everywhere. A puppet representing
Macron was symbolically beheaded by an imitation guillotine.
A sculpture representing a yellow
hand,
resembling the logo of SOS
Racism,
the oldest organization fighting "racism" and
"Islamophobia" in France, was burned.
Anti-Semites took the opportunity to offer their usual opinions, but were marginal. Benjamin Griveaux, the government spokesman, however, used their comments to attack the "yellow vest" protestors. He sent a tweet saying that the "yellow vests" were "coward[s], racist[s], anti-Semitic", and of the type that stages coups. Earlier, he had said that whatever happens, Macron would not "change course".
Macron
seems to hope that weariness will lead the "yellow vests"
to give up, but there seems no sign of it yet. On
the contrary, the "yellow vests" seem dedicated to bringing
him down. Those on television say they are determined to fight "to
the end".
The economic damage is considerable; the first estimates numbered
hundreds of millions of euros.
"Macron
and his team," wrote Ivan
Rioufol, an editorial writer at Le
Figaro,
recently, "would be wrong to believe that if the mobilization
weakens during the Christmas truce, it means they are out of the
woods".
The
author Éric Zemmour described the
revolt as the result of the "despair of people who feel
humiliated, forgotten, dispossessed of their own country by the
decisions of a contemptuous caste". He
concluded that he thinks that Macron has lost all legitimacy and that
his presidency is over.
Radio
commentator Jean-Michel Aphatie, said that
the presidency and the government "hang on by a thread",
and that the letter published by the generals is a strong sign that
the French institutions are deeply shaken. "If the police
falter," he stressed, "France could quickly slide towards
chaos".
On
December 20, two days before the fifth demonstration of the "yellow
vests," police
officers organized
a protest in front of the Élysée Palace. The
vice-president of an organization made up of police officers said
that many members are exhausted, feel sympathetic to the revolt and
are ready to join it.
The next day, the government increased police officers' salaries and paid them millions for overtime -- payments that had been overdue for months.
"The
authorities are really afraid that the police could turn on
them," commentedthe
journalist Jean-Michel Aphatie. "It is hard to imagine. It is
where we are in France, today".
The
Macron's popularity is in free fall; it has dropped to
18%. No
French president's popularity has dropped so low, so quickly. Flore
Santisteban, a professor at the Paris Institute of Political
Studies, quoted surveys
showing that Macron now crystallizes "an intense hatred, and
maybe more than hatred: rage".
Many commentators are wondering how Macron will still be able to govern in the coming weeks, and ask if he could be forced to resign and call for early presidential elections.
Several
news analysts have said that
this time, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the right-wing, populist
National Rally party, could be elected president.
The themes of her presidential campaign in 2017 resembled the claims
of the "yellow vest" movement.
Macron
still says nothing. He is nowhere
in sight. His
only recent public statements were made in foreign countries: Belgium
and Chad. His last public appearance in France was on December
4,
in the Massif Central, late in the evening. He went to see the damage
done to an official building partly burned by vandals. Although his
visit was unannounced, dozens of "yellow vests" arrived,
insulted him, and he quickly left.
Polls
show that Le Pen's National Rally could win the
European Parliament elections in May 2019 with 24%-25% of the vote.
Another right-wing, nationalist party, Debout
la France! (France,
Stand Up!) headed by MP Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, and allied to the
National Rally party , could get 8%.
The total would amount to 32%-33% percent of the vote. Macron's La
République En Marche !party,
created two years ago, is expected to get
only 18%
of the vote.
Election
to the European Parliament has no direct impact on French political
life. Such a result, however, would be a scathing disavowal of Macron
-- if he manages to stay in power until then.
A
few months ago, Macron introduced himself as the champion of
an open, "progressive" and multicultural Europe and
described the defenders of national sovereignty and all those hostile
to immigration and multiculturalism, as "lepers"
and supporters of "bellicose
nationalism"
extolling "the rejection of the other". He pretended easily
to triumph over them.
In
July 2017, he hinted that he would rule like the Roman god Jupiter.
It did not take long for him to fall from
his pedestal.
On
the evening of December 31, Macron offered the
French people his wishes for the year 2019. He
did not apologize. He ignored the grievances of the "yellow
vest" protesters and their supporters. He merely said that
"anger broke out" and that "order will be maintained
without indulgence". He
described in positive terms all that he had done since becoming
President.
He added that he would "go forward" in the same direction without changing a thing: "I intend to continue to follow the line that I traced since the first day of my mandate". He described his political opponents as "extremists", "demagogues" and "megaphones of a crowd full of hatred". He again said that the "fight against global warming" is an absolute priority.
He added that he would "go forward" in the same direction without changing a thing: "I intend to continue to follow the line that I traced since the first day of my mandate". He described his political opponents as "extremists", "demagogues" and "megaphones of a crowd full of hatred". He again said that the "fight against global warming" is an absolute priority.
Many
of the "yellow vest" protestors, interviewed on television,
appeared upset; some said they had decided not
even to listen to the speech. Macron's political
opponents criticized him
harshly. Nicolas Dupont-Aignan wrote:
"Tonight the French had the confirmation that Emmanuel Macron learned nothing from the events of 2018. While his politics brought together more than 75% of the French against him, he appeared determined to continue, in defiance of democracy."
"I feel that while the 'yellow vests' were protesting, he was on another planet... He has not taken the measure of the country's anger. He makes no mea culpa, he even assessed his actions positively, precisely what is rejected by the French."
On January 3, Eric Drouet, one of the main faces of the "yellow vests" movement was arrested by a dozen policeman on his way to the Place de la Concorde in central Paris to light candles to pay tribute to the "yellow vests" wounded or killed since the beginning of the demonstrations. He was peacefully walking on the sidewalk with 15 to 20 of his friends. None of them was shouting or wearing banners, or even a yellow vest. Drouet was indicted for organizing an illegal protest. Macron's political opponents said that Macron was adding more fuel to the fire.
On
January 4, after the first cabinet meeting of the year, Macron asked
government spokesman Benjamin Griveaux to say that
"those who continue to protest... are agitators who promote
insurrection", and that the government must"go
further, in a stronger way".
On
Saturday January 5, thousands of "yellow vests" protested again,
calling for Macron's resignation. They broke
down the
doors of Griveaux's office building as he fled. By evening, the
streets of Paris and other cities looked like battlefields once
more.
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