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El Nino to Weaken Monsoon, Exacerbate Drought in Pakistan, Northwestern India
While
parts of India received torrential rainfall during June due to the
monsoon, El Niño will reassert itself, causing the monsoon to
weaken, over the upper part of the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia.
During
a typical monsoon season, heat builds ahead of the phenomenon, then
rounds of showers, thunderstorms and tropical systems bring
torrential rainfall and cool India and many surrounding areas of
Southeastern Asia
El
Niño is
a warm phase of the fluctuation of sea surface temperatures in the
tropical Pacific Ocean that tends to bring an above-average number of
typhoons in the Pacific Ocean. A natural balance tends to reduce
tropical activity and hence reduce rainfall over the upper part of
the Indian Ocean.
A challenging to predict
and less-known phenomenon, known as the Madden-Julian
Oscillation (MJO) caused
the monsoon to strengthen temporarily. This oscillation is a pulse of
showers and thunderstorms that tends to migrate from west to east
around the equatorial regions of the globe.
According to AccuWeather
Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls, "During June, the MJO pulse
shifted to the eastern part of the Indian Ocean area and lingered."
"Rainfall was 16
percent above normal for India as a whole during June thanks to the
interaction with El Niño and the MJO pulse," AccuWeather
Meteorologist Eric Leister said.
The size of the drought
area will be smaller, compared to earlier analysis. Heavy rain in
some areas during June will lessen the impact of lower rainfall
amounts moving forward.
Assuming the pulse does
not revisit the region until the autumn, El Niño and below-average
water temperatures from Somalia to the Arabian Sea will slow the
arrival of the monsoon or reduce its impact from western India
through much of Pakistan during July and August.
Part of this area is
responsible for a significant amount of grain crops and agriculture
in general. Many days of dangerous heat are likely in this swath.
"While most of the
Asia summer forecast remains unchanged including the onslaught
of typhoons,
we do expect a little more rainfall than previously thought from
central India, including the Madhya Pradesh, to Odisha, India,"
Nicholls said.
In this area, a few more
storms are likely to occur.
The weakening monsoon
from the effects of El Niño will cause rounds of heavy rainfall to
diminish from Bhutan and southern Tibet to the northern parts of Laos
and Vietnam, as well as south-central China.
Farther south in
Indochina, current dry conditions will trend toward typical rains as
the summer progresses. However in southern Thailand, Malaysia,
Singapore and Indonesia will trend drier with drought building or
worsening.
"Even if another
pulse was to develop in the region late in the summer or during the
fall, it may be too late to turn the drought around in Pakistan and
northwestern India," Nicholls said.
A weaker monsoon can have
significant impact on temperatures in the region.
The stronger the monsoon,
the more the air is rising and cooling in its vicinity. Immediately
outside of the strong monsoon, air is sinking and substantially
heating up.
"With a weaker
monsoon, the areas within will tend to be warm, while areas nearby
outside of it will still be hotter than average due to the building
drought, just perhaps not as extreme," Nichols said.
There will be a flow of
humid air over much of the region, leading to very spotty storms, but
also resulting in very high AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures,
reaching 100 F or higher most days.
The strong monsoon that
occurred during June, helped to create the extreme heat in June over
Pakistan and in parts of India.
State
of emergency issued for
14 regions in Peru as El Niño
conditions
strengthen
As
the 2015 El Niño climate phenomenon continues to strengthen,
a 60-day state of emergency was issued for 14 regions in Peru,
to beware of possible damage that could result from the event,
confirmed Juan Benites, the Minister of Agriculture and Irrigation.
The
El Niño conditions cause a rise in sea surface temperature, which
consequently causes heavy rains, flooding in coastal and river areas
and droughts in other regions.
The
emergency declaration warned the authorities to prepare for the
"imminent danger" of El Nino and unusual climate
conditions, according to the state news agency Andina.
An
episode of El Niño is related to extremely warm and wet weather
conditions and major flooding events, during the period between the
months of April and October, along the coasts of northern Peru and
Ecuador.
In
former years, the period of El Niño was known for major flooding and
landslides in Peru.
#Peru declares emergency in 14 regions in preparation for #ElNino#climate impacts http://t.co/esEwnzV6SS pic.twitter.com/tVUMjedKIp
— Megan Rowling (@meganrowling) July 6, 2015
El
Niño reduces the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water, responsible
for sustaining large population of fish which affects the local
fishing industry.
Several
key fishing and mining areas are, consequently, placed under the
state of emergency, as Peru is the world's top producer of fishmeal,
and exporter of copper, gold and silver.
This Is What Global Warming Looks Like
From
Seattle to Salt Lake City, the West is baking under record heat.
Temperatures reaching the triple digits have made fire conditions
extreme and sent folks looking for relief heading into the Fourth of
July weekend. Unfortunately, the forecast in many areas calls for
more sun and sweat.WASHINGTON
Seattle, not accustomed to prolonged hot weather, saw its hottest June ever.
The average high temperature each day in June was a record 78.9 degrees, breaking the 1992 record by more than 3 degrees, said Johnny Burg, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Seattle.
"Our high is supposed to be in the low to mid 70s at this time and lows in the mid-50s," he said.
Instead, the Seattle area is seeing highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
Because the Seattle area suffers few heat waves, many people do not have air conditioning.
The weather was also dry in the Seattle area in June, when only 0.23 inch of precipitation was recorded. That's the fourth driest June on record.
Meanwhile, June temperatures were scorching in in Eastern Washington, with many record highs set.
The two highest readings in June were 113 degrees at Chief Joseph Dam and in the town of LaCrosse. The towns of Chelan, Ephrata, Odessa and Omak all recorded record highs of 110 degrees in June. Spokane reached a record 105 one day.
Citing extreme wildfire risk with high temperatures and widespread drought conditions, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee is asking people to limit use of fireworks. Inslee said he lacks the legal authority to enact a statewide ban, but notes some cities are restricting or banning fireworks.
Inslee has issued an emergency proclamation that allows the state Department of Natural Resources to quickly call on the National Guard and the State Guard to help respond to wildfires. A fast-moving blaze this week destroyed two dozen homes in the central Washington city of Wenatchee.
As the heat intensifies, Washington's streams continue to dry up, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. On Thursday the agency's Washington office reported that 80 percent of the state's rivers were reporting below-normal flows and record-setting lows.NEVADA
June in Las Vegas is officially the hottest ever.
The National Weather Service said the average June temperature recorded at McCarran International Airport was 91.9 degrees, breaking the previous record of 91.5 in 2013.
More than half of last month was at or above 105 degrees. A meteorologist said June 13 through June 30 brought 18 consecutive days of temperatures in that range.
There's never been that many in a row or in total in a June month. In 1961, there was a streak of 12 days straight and in 1985, there were 17 total.
And halfway through this decade, there are now three June months in the top seven hottest ever recorded. The others were in June of 2012 and 2013.UTAH
Salt Lake City also saw the hottest June on record following the warmest winter ever.
The National Weather Service said the average temperature last month was 77.5 degrees, breaking the previous record of 75.7 set in June 1988.
The average monthly low of 64.5 degrees also beat the 63.3 degrees in 1918.
There were four triple-digit June days recorded at Salt Lake City International Airport this year. The normal average high for the month is 83 degrees. Half of the month tallied 90 degrees or above for daytime highs, holding steady from June 15 through June 30.
This comes after the warmest winter ever, which was also noticeably drier than usual.
The temperature during the period of December 2014 to February 2015 broke the previous record set during the 1977-78 season.ARIZONA
Phoenix is known for its stifling summer heat, but June 2015 stood out.
It was the third hottest month the city has endured since the National Weather Service began keeping records back in 1895. The warmest June in Phoenix was in 2013 where temperatures averaged 94.8. The average temperature for this June was 94.0.
Phoenix experienced a six-day heat stretch with temperatures of 110 and above. The National Weather Service said the longest stretch of temperatures reaching 110 and above in Phoenix's history was in June 1974 that lasted 18 days.
The temperatures sent volunteers into the streets to keep people safe amid the scorching heat. The Phoenix Rescue Mission gave out a total of 178,000 water bottles to Phoenix's homeless population throughout the month of June.
Seattle, not accustomed to prolonged hot weather, saw its hottest June ever.
The average high temperature each day in June was a record 78.9 degrees, breaking the 1992 record by more than 3 degrees, said Johnny Burg, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Seattle.
"Our high is supposed to be in the low to mid 70s at this time and lows in the mid-50s," he said.
Instead, the Seattle area is seeing highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
Because the Seattle area suffers few heat waves, many people do not have air conditioning.
The weather was also dry in the Seattle area in June, when only 0.23 inch of precipitation was recorded. That's the fourth driest June on record.
Meanwhile, June temperatures were scorching in in Eastern Washington, with many record highs set.
The two highest readings in June were 113 degrees at Chief Joseph Dam and in the town of LaCrosse. The towns of Chelan, Ephrata, Odessa and Omak all recorded record highs of 110 degrees in June. Spokane reached a record 105 one day.
Citing extreme wildfire risk with high temperatures and widespread drought conditions, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee is asking people to limit use of fireworks. Inslee said he lacks the legal authority to enact a statewide ban, but notes some cities are restricting or banning fireworks.
Inslee has issued an emergency proclamation that allows the state Department of Natural Resources to quickly call on the National Guard and the State Guard to help respond to wildfires. A fast-moving blaze this week destroyed two dozen homes in the central Washington city of Wenatchee.
As the heat intensifies, Washington's streams continue to dry up, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. On Thursday the agency's Washington office reported that 80 percent of the state's rivers were reporting below-normal flows and record-setting lows.NEVADA
June in Las Vegas is officially the hottest ever.
The National Weather Service said the average June temperature recorded at McCarran International Airport was 91.9 degrees, breaking the previous record of 91.5 in 2013.
More than half of last month was at or above 105 degrees. A meteorologist said June 13 through June 30 brought 18 consecutive days of temperatures in that range.
There's never been that many in a row or in total in a June month. In 1961, there was a streak of 12 days straight and in 1985, there were 17 total.
And halfway through this decade, there are now three June months in the top seven hottest ever recorded. The others were in June of 2012 and 2013.UTAH
Salt Lake City also saw the hottest June on record following the warmest winter ever.
The National Weather Service said the average temperature last month was 77.5 degrees, breaking the previous record of 75.7 set in June 1988.
The average monthly low of 64.5 degrees also beat the 63.3 degrees in 1918.
There were four triple-digit June days recorded at Salt Lake City International Airport this year. The normal average high for the month is 83 degrees. Half of the month tallied 90 degrees or above for daytime highs, holding steady from June 15 through June 30.
This comes after the warmest winter ever, which was also noticeably drier than usual.
The temperature during the period of December 2014 to February 2015 broke the previous record set during the 1977-78 season.ARIZONA
Phoenix is known for its stifling summer heat, but June 2015 stood out.
It was the third hottest month the city has endured since the National Weather Service began keeping records back in 1895. The warmest June in Phoenix was in 2013 where temperatures averaged 94.8. The average temperature for this June was 94.0.
Phoenix experienced a six-day heat stretch with temperatures of 110 and above. The National Weather Service said the longest stretch of temperatures reaching 110 and above in Phoenix's history was in June 1974 that lasted 18 days.
The temperatures sent volunteers into the streets to keep people safe amid the scorching heat. The Phoenix Rescue Mission gave out a total of 178,000 water bottles to Phoenix's homeless population throughout the month of June.
The chance of a strong El Nino, one nearly guaranteed to bring significant, torrential, even damaging rainfall for weeks on end is now much higher, with an 85-90 percent chance of some sort of El Nino continuing through the winter, and the National Weather Service now confirming indicators lean toward this being a strong El Nino.
“I
think this is the most promising sign of a wet winter in California
in nearly 20 years,” said KPIX 5 Meteorologist Paul Deanno.
The
strength of the condition is what matters.
Gales and torrential rain are expected to engulf the lower part of China and Japan for the next four days as Nangka and Chan-Hom – as the typhoons have been named – make their journeys, currently around 1,500km apart, above the Pacific Ocean.
A parade of Pacific typhoons is spinning toward Japan, Taiwan and China http://t.co/cZaJqfmeI5 pic.twitter.com/Dio0LqvhfE
— Mashable (@mashable) July 7, 2015
Chan-Hom,
which has been marked as a category 1 typhoon, is bringing with it
wind speeds of up to 135mph that span over 77,000 sq miles and is set
to go across the coast of south east China, engulfing cities like
Shanghai, which has a population of around 24 million people.
Nangka,
category 3, on the other hand has gusts of 140mph. The two are
expected to form to create a 'super typhoon'.
CORR: Awesome satellite loops of Typhoon *Nangka* with new Japan "Himawari-8" satellite http://t.co/uOPQlrBt2lpic.twitter.com/3msGAHMgUV
— Jesse Ferrell (@Accu_Jesse) July 8, 2015
To
make matters worse, a tropical storm by the name of Linfa has already
landed in the Philippines and is expected to move north and hit Hong
Kong later this week.
class="code"
style="padding: 0px; margin: auto; width: 500px; max-width:
500px;"#Typhoon Chan-hom in the W Pacific. System's large size hindering rapid strengthening. Late week threat to #China.pic.twitter.com/Oc5lpzdkWb
— CNN Weather Center (@CNNweather) July 7, 2015
China
has called a level-tree emergency response and some 10,000 people
have been evacuated in Fujian, according to the country's CCTV.com
Drought
leads to mass cutting of trees in Los Angeles.
A
150-acre portion of the Florida Gulf Coast is being described as a
“dead zone” by scientists after thousands of birds mysteriously
abandoned their typical nesting grounds on the federally protected
landscape.
The
most surprising is that there isn’t just one species of bird that
has disappeared – it is virtually all of them, including blue
herons, roseate spoonbills, snowy egrets, pelicans and more,
according to a report by the Associated Press. And while some bird
families have taken up residence on another island close by, the vast
majority is nowhere to be found.
"It's
a dead zone now," said biologist Vic Doig of the US Fish and
Wildlife Service to the news outlet. "This is where the largest
bird colony on the Gulf Coast of Florida used to be."
On Tuesday, heavy storms dumped hours-worth of rain in pockets across these regions. First responders pulled people from vehicles and homes in three separate states: Texas, Kentucky and Missouri.
Two typhoons are making their way to China's southeastern coast, and bringing with them gales and torrential rains for the next four days. Weather authorities have issued the third highest typhoon alert for the incoming "Linfa" and "Chan-Hom".
After days of very high temperatures, which have hit records in some parts of Europe, there were hailstorms, flash floods and tornadoes.
Authorities have issued forest fire warnings for almost the entire country
A 12-foot-high mound of ice-encased trash is the last vestige of the city’s record snowfall.Katherine Taylor for The New York Times
Interior
Alaska wildfires blow up in near-record temperatures
Metro Vancouver reservoirs are quickly running dry and if current weather patterns continue, will follow a dangerous trajectory toward record low water levels.
To match normal precipitation levels between April and September, Vancouver would need an additional 263.6mm of rain between now and the end of September. We typically only receive 123.2mm during this period.
Metro Vancouver reservoirs are quickly running dry and if current weather patterns continue, will follow a dangerous trajectory toward record low water levels.
As
of the beginning of July, local reservoirs that provide Metro
Vancouver with its drinking water sat at only 75 per cent of
capacity, just under the normal range for this period of year.
However, storage has decreased significantly in the past month, where
June began with levels higher than 2014 and 2013 numbers.
To match normal precipitation levels between April and September, Vancouver would need an additional 263.6mm of rain between now and the end of September. We typically only receive 123.2mm during this period.
Near-record
temperatures earlier this week brought Alaska's fire season back into
full swing. Officials expected the uptick in fire activity, which
followed a cool stretch with some rain that allowed crews to hold or
make progress on some fires.
More
than 3.1 million acres have burned in Alaska as of Tuesday, and thick
smoke pushed the air quality index to "hazardous" in the
Fairbanks North Star Borough. If the trend continues, Alaska will
likely set a new record for total acres burned in a summer, passing
the 6.6 million mark in 2004.
6.58
inches - Record rainfall in Texas
6.58"
of rain has fallen in Abilene, Texas JUST TODAY. This sets a new
record for rainfall in any single day. Our affiliate KTXS Television
has the pics - we will share the video tonight on ABC World News
Tonight with David Muir
Photos:
@jeffcramer_ , @nbradshaw82 and Scott Martin.
Neighborhoods
Evacuated Near Indianapolis; Meteorologists Warn More Flooding Likely
Residents
from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley could see more dangerous
flash flooding again Wednesday, forecasters say.
On Tuesday, heavy storms dumped hours-worth of rain in pockets across these regions. First responders pulled people from vehicles and homes in three separate states: Texas, Kentucky and Missouri.
Downpours
slammed Indianapolis on Tuesday evening, prompting evacuations west
of the city.
This
is the same system that brought heavy flooding to Kansas City,
Wichita, Las Vegas and Reno, Nevada, on Monday night.
It
appears that Greenland’s melt season is making up for lost time.
After
a cool spring kept Greenland’s massive ice sheet mostly solid, a
(comparatively) warm late June and early July have turned half the
ice sheet’s surface into liquid, well outside the range of normal
for this time of year.
Twin
typhoons head for SE China
Two typhoons are making their way to China's southeastern coast, and bringing with them gales and torrential rains for the next four days. Weather authorities have issued the third highest typhoon alert for the incoming "Linfa" and "Chan-Hom".
Sitting
off the coast of China and Japan are two typhoons, spinning just
1500km apart and quickly intensifying. Experts predict they will
develop into ‘super typhoons’, with at least one – Typhoon
Chan-hom – likely to make landfall in Japan. The map shows it is
currently tracking towards the Japanese island of Okinawa, packing
wind gusts of up to 185 km/h.
The
second typhoon, Typhoon Nangka, is continuing to strengthen as it
heads towards the island of Guma, with winds of up to 260km/h. A
third storm – Tropical Storm Linfa – is lurking to the west and
slowly drifting northwards. Residents are on high alert as the huge
storm band bears down on China and Japan.
Crazy
weather in Europe: from boiling hot to giant hailstones
People
in some parts of Germany are scratching their heads, wondering what
is going on with the weather.
After days of very high temperatures, which have hit records in some parts of Europe, there were hailstorms, flash floods and tornadoes.
A
lot of the damage was in the states of Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt.
Temperatures soared to over104 degrees in Rome Monday. Residents and tourists took to city fountains and water stations to cope with the weather. (July 8)
Rome
Deals with Stifling Heat
Temperatures soared to over104 degrees in Rome Monday. Residents and tourists took to city fountains and water stations to cope with the weather. (July 8)
Spanish
wildfires break out amid heat wave
The
heatwave hitting Europe is behind an outbreak of wildfires in Spain.
Authorities have issued forest fire warnings for almost the entire country
The
heat wave that continues to break temperature records in Europe, from
the United Kingdom to Germany to Ukraine, is just the sort of extreme
summer sizzle climate-change models have forecast.
But
while scientists have long been able to pick out the human signal in
multiyear temperature, rainfall, and other weather trends, it’s
been much more difficult to connect global
warming’s impacts to
a specific weather event.
Now
that’s changing. An international group of scientists assembled by
the World
Weather Attribution program stated
late last week that it is “virtually
certain that
climate change increased the likelihood of the ongoing heat wave that
is stretching across much of Europe.”
On
Monday the New York Times published an in-depth piece on Boston’s
never-melting snow pile in the Seaport district. The pile that, at
one point this past winter, grew to an enormous 75-feet tall after
Boston was forced to use bulldozers to remove snow from the city
streets just so people could leave their homes.
“It
looks like a landfill,” the Times says, with gunk and muck and
other disgusting things that got picked up along the snow-plowed path
during Boston’s epic, record-breaking winter. Over 110 inches of
snow fell this winter in Beantown, most of which came within a span
of two months.
“But
what the mound has lost in stature, it has made up for in sheer
endurance,” writes the Times. “Few predicted it would last this
long.”
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