Monday, 8 June 2015

The G7: standing up to Russian "agression", sancitons and "containment"

The G7 meets in southern Bavaria with the Russians emphatically excluded.  First the mainstream western coverage. You will look in vain for mention of thousands protesting on the edge of the meeting. What you will find is Orwellian reference to Russian "aggression"


Leaders firm on Russia sanctions

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and US President Barack Obama in southern Germany for the G7 summit.









German Chancellor Angela Merkel and US President Barack Obama in southern Germany for the G7 summit. Photo: AFP / DPA

8 June, 2015

G7 leaders have opened their annual summit in southern Germany by taking an uncompromising stance against Russia's actions in Ukraine.

President Barack Obama and Chancellor Angela Merkel held talks as the G7 summit of economic powers began in southern Germany.

Moscow is the target of European Union and US sanctions over its role in support of Ukrainian rebels.

Russia has been excluded from what was previously known as the G8 since the annexation of Crimea last year.

The West accuses Russia of sending military forces into eastern Ukraine to help the rebels - a charge echoed by analysts. Moscow denies this, saying any Russian soldiers there are volunteers.

As he arrived in the Bavarian Alps, Mr Obama said G7 leaders would discuss "standing up to Russian aggression" in Ukraine.

The White House issued a statement after Mr Obama's talks with Mrs Merkel, saying: "The duration of sanctions should be clearly linked to Russia's full implementation of the Minsk agreements and respect for Ukraine's sovereignty."

Germany, Britain and the US want an agreement to offer support to any EU member state tempted to withdraw backing for the sanctions on Moscow, which are hurting the Russian economy.

Last September's Minsk accord, involving Russia, pro-Russian rebels and the Ukrainian government, included the establishment of a 30km buffer zone between the two sides.

But fighting has intensified in recent weeks. In the latest incident, two Ukrainian coastguards were injured when a blast ripped through their patrol boat in the port of Mariupol, though the exact circumstances remain unclear.

The European Union's President of the Council of Ministers, Donald Tusk, signalled a toughening of sanctions in a statement at the G7.

"If anyone wants to start a debate about changing the sanctions regime, the discussion could only be about strengthening it."

UK Prime Minister David Cameron said he was hopeful that there would be a united front to ensure that sanctions were "rolled over" despite admitting that "sanctions are having an impact on all of us".

EU sanctions are due to expire at the end of July.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday that Russia was not a threat and had "other things to worry about".

He told the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera: "Only an insane person and only in a dream can imagine that Russia would suddenly attack Nato.




G7 to discuss 'standing up to Russian aggression' – Obama





Leaders at G7 in Bavaria in call to uphold Russia sanctions




The two-day G7 summit has kicked off in Bavaria as its leaders gathered to discuss hot-button issues such as Ukrainian crisis, with some voicing support for tougher Russia sanctions despite the economic difficulties they bring to the EU.

All of us would prefer to have Russia around the G7 table,” European Council President Donald Tusk said at a luxury Bavarian hotel in Schloss Elmau. “But our group is not only a group [that shares] political or economic interests, but first of all this is a community of values. And that is why Russia is not among us here today.”

He also backed tougher sanctions against Russia, hoping that it would be put in place at the end of this month at a meeting of EU leaders in Brussels.

"If anyone wants to start a discussion about changing the sanctions regime, it could only be about strengthening it," Tusk said.



Activists of global anti-poverty charity Oxfam, wearing masks depicting leaders of the member countries of the G7 protest in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, southern Germany June 7, 2015.  (Reuters / Michael Dalder)



The crisis in Ukraine and the Greek economy are expected to top the agenda of the two-day G7 summit in southern Germany. However, the event has been overshadowed by mass demonstrations by anti-globalization protesters, who plan to hold more rallies.

From Zero Hedge -

Cold War 2.0 Heats Up: Washington Dusts Off Russia "Containment" Plan


6 June, 2015

The “ceasefire” — if you can call it that — that has been in place in Ukraine since February’s Minsk Accord has fallen apart this week with the fiercest fighting in months claiming dozens of lives and prompting President Petro Poroshenko to launch a media blitz in an attempt to rally the West against what he claims is a renewed offensive by Russian-backed separatists. 

Russian media contends the separatists were only defending themselves after they began to take artillery fire. Ukraine, by contrast, claims its soldiers came under attack by rebel tanks. “We had some storming action by between 500 and 1,000 servicemen of the militants, with a large number of tanks and armored machinery, apparently counting on being able to quickly capture Maryinka,”Poroshenko said.

Now, Ukraine is stepping up calls for Washington to send lethal aid to Kiev, casting the conflict as a war on Western, democratic values. 

Here’s The NY Times:



In what amounted to a multidimensional confidence-building campaign, President Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine tried on Friday to rally international support for his country and to maintain pressure on President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, including economic sanctions.

Mr. Poroshenko held a major news conference, gave interviews to foreign journalists, spoke by phone with President Obama and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, and prepared to welcome two visiting prime ministers to Kiev, Shinzo Abe of Japan and Stephen Harper of Canada.. 
We will defend our country, our territorial integrity and our independence by ourselves,” Mr. Poroshenko said in an interview with journalists from a small group of foreign news organizations, including The New York Times. “We have weapons for that. But unfortunately we are fighting with the weapons from the 20th century, from the time of the Soviet Union, against the Russian — most modern — weapons of the 21st century.” 
He added, “Here we are defending freedom, we are defending democracy, we are defending European values, and the actual reason of this war is the right of the Ukrainian people to live under European standards, with European values, in the European Union.”

To be sure, this is an opportune time for Poroshenko to appeal to the US and its allies for assistance (which makes last week's Russian "offensive" seem rather convenient). President Obama will attend a G-7 summit in Germany this weekend and will now come equipped with 'evidence' to support calls for stepped up sanctions on Russia. Obama may be seeking to rally support ahead of what looks to be a major strategy shift in realtions between NATO and Moscow. WSJ has more:







Obama administration officials are considering new deterrence strategies to rein in Russian meddling in Europe, in what some say would amount to an updated version of Cold War-era containment.
The proposed approach involves beefing up the militaries of allies and would-be partners and rooting out government corruption, which they see Moscow exploiting to gain more influence.
Some administration officials also want to expand the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to limit Moscow’s orbit. Membership for Ukraine or Georgia remains off the table, but some Pentagon and administration officials are advocating admitting the small Balkan country of Montenegro to solidify the country’s ties to the West and show that Mr. Putin doesn’t have a veto over alliance expansion. 
The longer-term measures under discussion, officials say, stem from a recognition that Moscow has refused to moderate its posture after its territorial grab last year in Ukraine, and that U.S. and European attempts at diplomacy and sanctions alone won’t be enough to force a change. Those measures would include stepping up training for European allies to help partner militaries resist the kinds of so-called hybrid tactics—like training surrogate forces and conducting snap border exercises—that Russia has used effectively in Ukraine.
The impetus toward a policy shift also is driven by the conclusion that U.S. steps to reassure regional allies must be bolstered by other measures against possible Russian intrusions.
The Pentagon also is drafting plans for where to position new stocks of military equipment for use in a crisis or for stepped-up training exercises. That would entail additional U.S. troops assigned to rotating duty in the region. But Washington remains opposed, for now, to rebuilding permanent U.S. troop formations in Europe.
The administration is accelerating work on new military technologies to better counter Russian military advances and try to offset advances by Moscow, and deter Russia from using its increasing military prowess.
The policy deliberations are gaining momentum. On Friday, Mr. Carter gathered a group of military leaders in Stuttgart, Germany, to discuss the broader U.S. strategy to Russia..

Inside the White House, meanwhile, the National Security Council is at work on an overhaul of its Russia strategy that formally casts aside the policy of “reset” that dominated Mr. Obama’s first term.

The only thing being "reset" now, it appears, is the Cold War. 

For its part, Moscow says Kiev "constantly" threatens to violate the ceasefire and refuses to engage in constructive dialogue. 







All agreements should be fully implemented so that no one is able to derail fragile progress by resuming military activity,” the Russian foreign ministry wrote on its Twitter feed, quoting minister Sergei Lavrov. “We must know who is shelling communities, thereby violating not only the Minsk agreements, but also international humanitarian law.”
Lavrov blamed Kiev for this week’s upsurge in fighting.
The February Minsk agreements are constantly under threat because of the actions of the Kiev authorities, trying to walk away from their obligations to foster direct dialogue with Donbass,” he said.

While it's impossible to accurately assess the fluid situation on the ground, what does seem clear is that neither side has the will (or even the desire) to deescalate the conflict.


For Washington, now seems like a particularly inopportune time to begin dusting off Cold War containment policies and ratcheting up the war rheotric with Russia. The US is already engaged in a tense war of words with China over the latter's land reclamation projects in the South China Sea, and all signs point to boots on the ground in Iraq (and eventually Syria) by year end. Once again, US foreign policy now revolves squarely around the projection of military prowess

*  *  
(a video from The Guardian shows gunbattles in Eastern Ukraine)

From RT - 

Obama: Ukraine's Territorial Integrity Necessary for Conflict Settlement


US President Barack Obama said the conflict in Ukraine can be solved peacefully only if country’s territorial integrity and sovereignty is ensured.


UGM-73 Poseidon intermediate range ballistic missile (image from wikipedia.org)

UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has said in an interview that placing American nuclear warheads on British territory is not ruled out - but it would have to be "a very delicate act."

There have been "some worrying signs of stepping up levels of activity both by Russian forces and by Russian-controlled separatist forces” in Ukraine, Hammond told the BBC's Andrew Marr.

There have been media reports in the last week that Washington was considering withdrawing from a Cold War-era treaty with Moscow and returning nuclear-capable medium-range missiles to Europe in an effort to counter what it calls "Russian aggression."



Hear UK foreign secretary, Philip Hammond tout for the TTIP on BBC HERE

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