Wednesday, 4 July 2018

The current blast of heat over the Arctic


The Arctic Ice melt
Comment from the Arctic Sea Ice Blog


With thanks to Robert Leasure

"Expect huge drops in extent and area because the entire ESS shoreline is going to see open water explode into existence. We will see likely 30-40km a day of ice cleared off the shoreline.

Models show no local inversions at the surface..

meaning the 20-35°C air coming off the shoreline will directly cream the ice front bringing a steady supply of heat smoking the near shore ess ice.

Also where open water appears ssts will immediately jump to explosive warmth for the ESS.

LIKE 5C+ easily against the ice sheet.

Lasting impacts remain to be seen but this is going to be epic"




Another comment

One thing is for sure.

I can't recall a blast of heat ever this intense actually exploding over an area of arctic ice as large as this one is expected to encompass.

The models are showing very strong well mixed winds vertically stacked over a long fetch for 36-60 hours over parts of the Pacific side. 

This is going to bring a period of 2-4C surface temps over the ESS, chuchki, and Beaufort.

With even warmer surface temps of 4c+ grazing the edges.

This will allow tremendous heat to reach the ice surface.  Pending clouds and rain.  Melt rates are going to jump into the 5-10cm/day range.

And expect huge drops in extent and area because the entire ESS shoreline is going to see open water explode into existence.  We will see likely 30-40km a day of ice cleared off the shoreline.

Models show no local inversions at the surface..

meaning the 20-35C air coming off the shoreline will directly cream the ice front bringing a steady supply of heat smoking the near shore ess ice.

Also where open water appears ssts will immediately jump to explosive warmth for the ESS.

LIKE 5C+ easily against the ice sheet.

Lasting impacts remain to be seen but this is going to be epic


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