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If anything illustrates America’s loss of leverage and power it is this.
Tillerson returned empty-handed from Pakistan
Adam
Garrie
25
October, 2017
US
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has met with Pakistan’s Prime
Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif and
other cabinet members in Islamabad. The meeting takes place during an
awkward time in Pakistan-US relations and today’s meeting only
solidified these existing trends.
Pakistan’s
pivot away from the US and closer to China, a long-time ally that has
now become a supremely important economic and geo-strategic partner,
has not been lost on the United States. Nor has it been lost on
Washington that Pakistan’s relations with Russia are at an all-time
high. Pakistan’s deeper integration into a so-called ‘eastern
alliance’ was solidified this year when Pakistan joined the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). India, of course, joined at
the same time, demonstrating that Russia in particular, is very eager
to see tensions between India and Pakistan, be resolved through an
international mechanism focused on pan-Asian security.
Pakistan
for its part will have noticed the very public closeness between
India’s radical Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President
Donald Trump. The United States is clearly exploiting the
hyper-nationalist and religious extremist tendencies of Premier Modi,
in order to drive further space between New Delhi against both
Beijing and Islamabad. Thus far, the response from both China and
Pakistan has been one of maturity tinged with caution. This is the
only correct response given the ‘bluff’ like quality to America’s
newfound fondness of India.
In
reality, the US is not particularly interested in investing in India,
whereas China could be and would be interested, under the right
conditions. Likewise, the US does not offer India economic outlets
tailored for its economy in the way that China’s One Belt—One
Road could easily do if India stopped seeing itself as a rival to
China, but like Russia and Pakistan and even increasingly South
Korea, begin to understand that China is a potential partner, one
which in no way threatens the national sovereignty of its partners.
Far
from putting money into India, the US is selling India expensive
weapons, whose equivalents could be purchased from either Russia or
China for a much more affordable price.
Were
the current Indian government not so hostile to Pakistan, one could
imagine Pakistan feeling some sympathy for an Indian state that is
being used by the US for its own geo-strategic and military purposes.
For decades, the US used Pakistan in similar ways and to a degree is
still trying to do so. The difference is that Pakistan and the world
around Pakistan have changed and Islamabad’s leaders are well aware
of this long overdue advantage.
Pakistan’s
economic future lies with China. No one but an ideologue could now
disagree with this. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is
just the crowing tower of a relationship that is both deep and wide.
Pakistan has likewise found Russia to be far more respectful of
Pakistan’s security concerns than the US, in spite of frosty
relations during much of the Cold War.
During
America’s nearly 17-year long war in Afghanistan, Pakistan has paid
the ultimate price for the nature of its US ‘alliance’. Pakistan
has been asked to shoulder much of the burden of regional security
operations which have intensified due to the instability the US
caused in Afghanistan. The sacrifices of Pakistan in terms of
military lives, civilian lives and logistical and monetary costs,
have all been great.
In
spite of this, the US has failed to engage in the transformative
economic projects in Pakistan that China is engaging in and to add
insult to injury, the US consistently blames Pakistan for harbouring
terrorism, when in reality, Pakistan has been a victim of terrorist
atrocities for years, while the US does little more than point
fingers.
Terrorism: The Real Flashpoint
Against
this backdrop, Rex Tillerson, a moderate by US standards, flew into
Islamabad for what were always going to be tense meetings. While the
US has in the past, openly criticised CPEC, Tillerson recently stated
that the US does not specifically oppose CPEC, a statement which can
be viewed as a concession to the new reality of Pakistan, a reality
which no amount of US carrots or sticks can now change.
Because
of this, the general trajectory of Tillerson’s meetings involved
security issues. According to a press release from the US Embassy in
Islamabad, Tillerson emphasized that his country feels that Pakistan
should do more to fight terrorism on its soil, while also expressing
gratitude for what Pakistan has accomplished. Tillerson, after all,
is something of a natural diplomat, unlike Donald Trump or Nikki
Haley, who both seem far better at angering foreign powers than
treating them with anything amounting to respect.
However,
Pakistan hit back at the accusations about harboring terrorism, just
as Pakistan defended its record on the matter during the recent
opening of the UN General Assembly. Shortly after his meeting with
Tillerson Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif spoke to the press affirming
Pakistan’s position. He said,
“Terrorist
attacks are not planned on or executed from Pakistani soil; there are
no terrorist safe havens in Pakistan, and we made this clear to the
US delegation today.
We
emphasized again and again that their [US] assessment [about
Pakistan] is wrong. We are not responsible for the increase in the
drug trade in Afghanistan or the increasing [Afghan] territory
occupied by terrorists.
Our
armed forces and law enforcement agencies have taken action; we have
yielded results and will continue to do so but not for Afghan or
American interest. Our fight against terrorism is our own and the
results we yield are our win”.
Assuming
the language Asif and his colleagues used behind closed doors was at
least as strong as the public statement, the US should be in no doubt
about Pakistan’s position.
While
Pakistan, China, and Russia all benefit from stability in
Afghanistan, the US is uniquely placed to benefit from prolonged and
somewhat manageable chaos in Afghanistan. As I wrote previously,
“Afghanistan
has a lucrative poppy sector as well as untapped minerals worth
millions. While the US will find it hard to get its hands of all of
Afghanistan’s wealth as perpetually unwanted “visitors”, what
the US can do is prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe and
prosperous state, one which borders key areas along China’s One
Belt–One Road. Indeed, Afghanistan could potentially be part of One
Belt–One Road were the situation to stabilize. While America cannot
win the war in Afghanistan, they can attempt to make sure that
others, namely China, lose out. This is the key element behind
America’s strategic dissonance in Afghanistan. On the one hand,
they want a good clean win for US business interests. On the other
hand, knowing such a thing is next to impossible, they want to
proverbially salt the earth before China or any other potential
economic partner can reap any benefits from Afghanistan”.
A Cautious Delhi
India
has not responded to the US calls for involvement in Afghanistan with
the enthusiasm that some in Washington had expected. The competition
for influence in Afghanistan that the US hoped to engineer between
Pakistan and India has failed to come to fruition as even the Modi
government is not quite as foolhardy as the US envisaged it would be.
While Modi is happy to engineer new troubles for his country whether
it be on its borders with China or by taking an increasingly militant
line on Jammu and Kashmir, Modi did not jump head first into the US
made conflict in Afghanistan.
In
this sense, the US can only rely on India to provoke others, when
India is in no real danger of being forced to back up these
provocations. Likewise, Pakistan does not need to respond to US
provocations, including Donald Trump’s threats to withdraw aid to
the country if Pakistan doesn’t blindly follow US orders and take
insults from the State Department regarding “harbouring terrorism”,
without rhetorically fighting back.
Pakistan’s
period of being a junior partner to the US, while paying the lion’s
share of the price, is over and the US implicitly knows this. Because
of this, the US will likely continue its destabilizing war in
Afghanistan while simultaneously continuing to encourage India to
become more provocative towards Pakistan, something which will likely
produce mixed results. Pakistan must, therefore, concentrate on her
allies in China, Russia and beyond.
Rex
Tillerson’s visit to Pakistan was not only meaningless, it was of
little use, as it only reaffirmed the new status quo that the US can
attempt to tarnish, but ultimately will not be able to change.
Adam
Garrie is the managing editor at The Duran and is a frequent guest on
RT, Press TV, and Digital Divides. He is an expert on Asia/Eurasian,
Middle Eastern, Russian and US history and politics. He
tweets:@adamgarriereal..The views expressed are author’s own and do
not necessarily reflect Global Village Space’s editorial
policy.
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