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CPR
Radio with Don DeBar – 11 May, 2016
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The Nuclear Arms Race Is Back: Russia Furious As US Launches European Ballistic Missile Shield
11
May, 2016
Back
in November
2008,
then Russian president Dmitry Medvedev made a stark warning to NATO:
"Russia
will deploy Iskander missile systems in its enclave in Kaliningrad to
neutralize, if necessary, the anti-ballistic missile system in
Europe."
Several
years we followed
up with a
report that as Europe was ramping up NATO expansion, Russia may have
followed through on its warning when as Bild then reported, Russia
stationed missiles with a range of about 500 kilometers in its
Kaliningrad enclave and along its border with the Baltic states of
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
There
was not official confirmation at the time however we expect the
European ICBM theater will get hot in the coming days because
as Reuters
reports,
the United States' European missile defense shield goes live on
Thursday almost a decade after Washington proposed protecting NATO
from Iranian rockets and despite repeated Russian warnings that the
West is threatening the peace in central Europe.
Amid high Russia-West tension, U.S. and NATO officials will declare operational the shield at a remote air base in Deveselu, Romania, after years of planning, billions of dollars in investment and failed attempts to assuage Russian concerns that the shield could be used against Moscow.
As
Robert Bell, a NATO-based envoy of U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter
explained "we now have the capability to protect NATO in Europe.
The Iranians are increasing their capabilities and we have to be
ahead of that. The
system is not aimed against Russia,"
he told reporters, adding that the system will soon be handed over to
NATO command.
First
agreed by the U.S. government 2007 and then canceled and relaunched
by the newly-elected U.S. President Barack Obama in 2009, the missile
defense shield's stated aim is to protect North America and Europe
from so-called rogue states such as Iran and North Korea. That is
part of a U.S. strategy that includes missile interceptors in
California and Alaska.
To
be sure the Kremlin was not content with this explanation, which is a
clear defection from the carefully established Game Theory
equilibrium in the aftermath of the nuclear arms race, and one which
potentially removes a Russian first strike threat, thereby pressuring
Russia.
As
a result, Reuters notes that "Russia
is incensed at such of show of force by its Cold War rival in
formerly communist-ruled eastern Europe where it once held
sway. Moscow
says the U.S.-led alliance is trying to encircle it close to the
strategically important Black Sea, home to a Russian naval fleet and
where NATO is also considering increasing patrols."
Worse,
the precarious nuclear balance of power in Europe has suddenly
shifted, and quite dramatically: despite U.S. assurances, the
Kremlin says the missile shield's real aim is to neutralize Moscow's
nuclear arsenal long enough for the United States to make a first
strike on Russia in the event of war.
The
move will also prompt further escalations on both sides: as a
reminder, the readying of the shield also comes as NATO prepares a
new deterrent in Poland and the Baltics, following Russia's Crimean
adventure in 2014. In response, Russia is reinforcing its western and
southern flanks with three new divisions.
The
missile defense shield relies on radars to detect a ballistic missile
launch into space. Tracking sensors then measure the rocket's
trajectory and intercept and destroy it in space, before it re-enters
the earth's atmosphere. The interceptors can be fired from ships or
ground sites. It is being launched despite repeated Russian warnings
that its activation would prompt an appropriate response.
The
Russian ambassador to Denmark warned a year ago that Danish
warships would become targets for Russian nuclear missiles if Denmark
joined the shield project by installing radars on its vessels.
Denmark is upgrading at least one frigate to house a ballistic
missile sensor.
"Ballistic
missile defense sites could pose threats to the stability and
strategic assets of the Russian Federation," Russia's ambassador
to NATO, Alexander Grushko, told Reuters last month.
Meanwhile,
Turkey is already hosting a U.S. radar and the Netherlands has
equipped ships with radars. The United States also has four ships in
Spain as part of the defenses, while all NATO nations are
contributing funding. US officials have tried to tone down Russian
concerns and dismiss the Russian view as "strategic paranoia",
blaming Moscow for breaking off talks with NATO in 2013 that were
aimed at explaining how the shield would operate. What is ignored is
that at the same time, the US State Department and the CIA were
plotting NATO expansion into Ukraine to bring the alliance that much
closer to Russia.
The
United States says Russia was seeking a treaty limiting the
capability and range of ballistic missile interceptors. "No
government could agree to that," U.S. adviser Bell said.
Russian
officials are concerned about technology that the United States says
it does not have, including a missile defense interceptor capable of
speeds of 10 km (6.2 miles) per second that could destroy Russian
missiles.
Curiously,
the US continues to push the argument that the missile shield is only
there to defend against Iranian agressions, despite a historic deal
between world powers and Tehran to limit Iran's nuclear program. The
West believes Iran's Revolutionary Guards continue to develop
ballistic missile technology, carrying out two tests late last year.
"They are looking for greater distance and accuracy," said
Douglas Barrie, an aerospace defense specialist at the International
Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). "They can still miss by
hundreds of meters, but that doesn't rule out firing against a city
or a very large airfield."
Which
is strange considering that on Friday the United States will also
start construction on a second site in Poland due to be ready in
2018, giving NATO a permanent, round-the-clock shield in addition to
radars and ships already in the Mediterranean. Poland, one can argue,
is hardly the target of millitant Iranian clerics, and makes it very
clear that this deterrence step is merely aimed at Russia.
But
what makes this step particuarly dangerous is that Russia will now
have to be forced to retaliate and since it does not have a
comparable defensive technology, Putin will have no choice but to
deploy more ICBMs on Russia's borders, which in turn will
exponentially escalate the threat of an "inadvertent"
launch. Although considering how the "market" responds to
newsflow these past few years, this may also be seen as a bullish
catalyst for stocks.
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