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NOAA Study Confirms Global Warming Speed-Up Is Imminent
Joe
Romm
5
June, 2015
A
major new
study from
NOAA finds more evidence that we may be witnessing the start of the
long-awaited jump in global temperatures. As I reported
in April,
many recent studies have found that we are about to enter an era of
even more rapid global warming.
Indeed,
one March
study,
“Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change,” warns
the speed-up is imminent — with Arctic warming rising a stunning
1°F per decade by the 2020s.
The
new study
in Science from
a team of NOAA scientists, “finds that the rate of global warming
during the last 15 years has been as fast as or faster than that seen
during the latter half of the 20th Century,” as NOAA
explains.
The
director of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information,
Thomas Karl, told the UK Guardian that “considering all the
short-term factors identified by the scientific community that acted
to slow the rate of global warming over the past two decades
(volcanoes, ocean heat uptake, solar decreases, predominance of La
Niñas, etc.) it is likely the temperature increase would
have accelerated in
comparison to the late 20th Century increases.”
What
happens when these various temporary factors stop? Karl explained:
“Once these factors play out, and they may have already, global
temperatures could rise more rapidly than what we have seen so far.”
In
other words, the long-awaited jump is global temperatures is likely
imminent. How big is the jump? As I reported
in April,
top climatologist Kevin Trenberth has said it would be as much as
0.5°F. Given that 2015 is crushing
it for
the hottest year on record, we appear to be already witnessing a big
piece of that jump.
NOAA’s
new study not only incorporates the latest global temperature data
from 2013 and 2014. Their “calculations also use improved versions
of both sea surface temperature and land surface air temperature
datasets” (detailed here).
The result, as NOAA explains, is that the new “study refutes the
notion that there has been a slowdown or ‘hiatus’ in the rate of
global warming in recent years.” In particular, the authors
conclude bluntly:
Indeed, based on our new analysis, the IPCC’s statement of two years ago – that the global surface temperature “has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15 years than over the past 30 to 60 years” – is no longer valid.
Turns
out the “long-term global warming trend” — which is redundant
because the global warming trend was always a long-term phenomenon —
has remained constant. But then CP readers already knew that. Back in
January I
reported that
Dr. Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space
Studies, tweeted,
“Is there evidence that there is a significant change of trend from
1998? (Spoiler: No.)” He posted this chat:
The
March study mentioned
earlier makes clear the only “pause” there has been was in the
long-expected speed-up of global warming. The rate of surface warming
should have started to accelerate in the past decade, rather than
stay fairly constant.
The
authors warned that, by 2020, human-caused warming will move the
Earth’s climate system into a regime of rapid multi-decadal rates
of warming. They project that within the next few years, “there is
an increased likelihood of accelerated global warming associated with
release of heat from the sub-surface ocean and a reversal of the
phase of decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean.”
That
appears to be happening now.
High Carbon Levels Can Make It Harder For Plants To Grow
14
June, 2015
In
contrast to a popular conservative argument, a new
study has
found that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide isn’t necessarily a
boon to plant growth — instead, it causes plants to have a more
difficult time absorbing nitrogen,
a nutrient critical to plant growth and health.
Published
in the journal Global
Change Biology,
the study found that as carbon dioxide levels in the air increase,
the concentration of nitrogen in plants decreases, thus decreasing
the plant’s protein levels and growth ability. The team of
international researchers studied the impact of increased atmospheric
carbon across multiple types of ecosystems — from grasslands for
forests — by looking at large-scale field experiments conducted in
eight countries across four different continents.
“For
all types of ecosystem the results show that high carbon dioxide
levels can impede plants’ ability to absorb nitrogen, and that this
negative effect is partly why raised carbon dioxide has a marginal or
non-existent effect on growth in many ecosystems,” Johan Uddling,
senior lecturer at the Department of Biological and Environmental
Sciences at the University of Gothenburg and lead researcher on the
project, said
in a press statement.
Among
conservatives — and some
scientists —
there has been a long-held hope that climate change could actually
stimulate plant growth in the short term, as the atmosphere becomes
more rich with carbon dioxide. Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK) has
said that
climate change has “contributed to increasing agricultural
productivity,” arguing that “CO2 is a fertilizer.” And while
some studies have supported
Inhofe’s claim,
others — like this most recent one — have found the opposite
to be true.
“The
findings of the study are unequivocal. The nitrogen content in the
crops is reduced in atmospheres with raised carbon dioxide levels in
all three ecosystem types. Furthermore, we can see that this negative
effect exists regardless of whether or not the plants’ growth
increases, and even if fertiliser is added. This is unexpected and
new,” Uddling said.
The
study found that for both wheat and rice, increased carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere led to less nutritious crops. Wheat and rice are two
of the most important crops globally — alongside maize, wheat and
rice provide over 50 percent of the world’s plant-derived
energy, according
to the International Development Research Center.
Past
studies have
also seen reductions in nitrogen content for plants grown in a
high-carbon environment, but have traditionally attributed it to a
kind of dilution — the idea being that as carbon stimulates plant
growth and the rate of photosynthesis increases, nitrogen uptake
simply wasn’t able to keep up. That theory, Uddling said, has now
been called into question.
“The
findings of this study show that this interpretation is simplified
and partly incorrect. We are seeing reduced nitrogen content even
when growth has not been affected. Moreover, the effect is there in
trials with powerful fertilizer, which indicates that it is not down
to limited access to nitrogen in the soil,” Uddling said.
“Future
studies should look at what is causing the effect, but it appears to
be linked to plants’ capacity to absorb nitrogen rather than to
changed levels in the soil.”
RT,
14
June, 2015
An
incessant torrential downpour has ravaged Tbilisi, resulting in
flooding of low-lying areas in Georgia’s capital. The severe
weather took the lives of 12 people and resulted in the deaths of 300
animals from the local zoo.
The
death toll so far stands at 12, while 24 people are missing, TASS
reports. Bodies were found mostly in flooded private households.
There have been reports of landslides in Tbilisi’s suburbs.
The
Georgian PM announced June 15 to be a day of mourning for the Tbilisi
flood victims.
The
water has filled hundreds of basements, underground walkways, squares
and roads, and damaged electrical and technical infrastructure. The
House of Justice has suffered the most among the federal buildings.
Some 22,000 Tbilisi citizens remain without electricity.
Prime
Minister Irakly Garibashvili announced that an emergency headquarters
for damage control and recovery had been set up.
Rescuers
work among debris at a flooded street in Tbilisi, Georgia, June 14,
2015 (Reuters / Irakli Gedenidze)Rescuers work among debris at a
flooded street in Tbilisi, Georgia, June 14, 2015 (Reuters / Irakli
Gedenidze)
All
rescue teams available have been deployed to Tbilisi to bring the
situation under control.
Prague
Zoo along with other Czech zoos is set to send a team of at least
five specialists to Tbilisi on Monday.
“After
consultation with Tbilisi Zoo’s management we will send a team of
skilled keepers, who have experienced floods in Prague. Keepers are
going there to help with the current situation in Tbilisi,”
Miroslav Bobek, director of Prague Zoo, told RT. “As a president of
UCSZOO (Union of Czech and Slovak Zoological Gardens) I have already
initiated a public collection to financially support Tbilisi Zoo and
its recovery.”
"The
situation is rather difficult. We haven't seen anything like this in
the capital before," Garibashvili said. The Georgian PM reported
that rescuers and police are doing their job well and have already
saved dozens of people. "All problems will be solved,"
Garibashvili promised.
A
man gestures to a hippopotamus at a flooded street in Tbilisi,
Georgia, June 14, 2015 (Reuters / Beso Gulashvili)A man gestures to a
hippopotamus at a flooded street in Tbilisi, Georgia, June 14, 2015
(Reuters / Beso Gulashvili)
The
Kura River that passes through the city broke its banks and flooded
Tbilisi’s Zoo, causing over 30 wild animals to flee, among them a
hippo, 7 bears, six lions, six tigers, jaguars, 13 wolves and others.
These
were employees trying to save the animals from the flood, among them
Guliko Chitadze, a woman who had worked in the zoological garden for
over 25 years and who had had her arm amputated a fortnight ago after
a tiger attacked her.....
Prime
Minister Tony Abbott has renewed his commitment to axe the Renewable
Energy Target (RET), warning that continued and excessive use of
solar power will gradually deplete and eventually destroy the sun.
With
global sea levels going up at a rate of about 9 millimeters per year,
the livelihoods of many coastal people in the world look increasingly
threatened, especially in those parts of the world with limited
financial or technical means to adapt. A rate of a thumb-width of
water per year may not sound like much, but the half to one meter
higher water levels mean that many coastal people will have to
abandon their homes and fields before the end of the century.
Indonesia
with its countless low-lying inhabited but often poor islands will
likely be one of the more affected countries in the world. In a
recent report by the World Bank, for example, Palembang, in Sumatra,
made it onto the top-10 list of most vulnerable cities when measured
as percentage of GDP.
As
if these developments weren’t scary enough for Indonesia’s
coastal people, a new report indicates that people in the coastal
parts of Kalimantan, Sumatra and Papua could be in even bigger
trouble. The study commissioned by Wetlands International and
implemented by Deltares looked at the rate at which coastal peatlands
are decomposing, sinking and increasingly becoming flooded. The
research was conducted in Sarawak (Malaysian Borneo) but is as
relevant to the many coastal peatlands in Indonesia.
The
earth’s core is getting more restless, grinding and shifting
underfoot, and increasingly spewing forth its fury.
From
Alaska and Hawaii to Japan, Malaysia, Ecuador, Iceland and Russia,
the amount of volcanic activity has been at or near record levels in
recent years, some scientists say. But apparently measuring such
activity over time is not an exact science. Other scientists believe
the level of activity is normal but that the speed of communications
and increased media coverage makes it seem out of the ordinary.
Earthquakes,
however, are clearly running at historically high levels since 1900,
according to statistics from the U.S. Geological Survey.
Water stress in India
Forecast for next Friday, 06/19, heat returns to Alaska and Siberia
Politicians
including Barack Obama remained gridlocked on how to deal
Hundreds
of sheep in Iceland have died off, and no one seems to know the exact
cause. Research is currently underway to find the culprit.
RÚV
reports that the deaths have hit especially hard in Borgarfjörður
in west Iceland, Eyjafjörður in the north, and across east Iceland.
The wide area over which the deaths are occurring – as well as the
alarming rate at which sheep are dying off – has many farmers
worried. In some cases, half of entire flocks have been lost.
The
beautiful monarch butterfly, which is also a major pollinator, is
being threatened by herbicides that eradicate milkweed, its primary
food source. Now, a desperate rejuvenation program is under way to
save the species from possible extinction.
A
shocking statistic released by the US Fish and Wildlife Service on
Monday summed up the plight of the monarch butterfly: Since 1990,
about 970 million of the butterflies – 90 percent of the total
population – have vanished across the United States.
Scientists
issued a dire warning Tuesday to UN climate negotiators in Bonn of a
vicious global warming cycle that will be unlocked with the thawing
of carbon-bearing permafrost.
There
may be 1,500 billion tonnes of carbon locked away in permafrost --
perennially frozen ground covering about a quarter of exposed land in
the Northern Hemisphere, said Susan Natali, a researcher with the
Woods Hole Research Center in Massachusetts.
The
carbon will be released incrementally as global temperatures rise on
the back of soaring emissions from mankind's voracious burning of
fossil fuels, making permafrost a vast and underestimated source of
future greenhouse gas emissions, said Natali.
Polar
bears are now eating dolphins lured north by warming water.
Scientists
for the first time observed the bears feasting on white-beaked
dolphins in Svalbard in the Norwegian Arctic. They theorise the
dolphins, lured northward by warmer waters, were trapped under the
ice and killed by the bears when coming up for air through a small
hole, they wrote in a new study
A waste incineration plant and its surroundings in Bangladesh
Destructive
storms and sudden floods are set to intensify across Australia as
global warming plays havoc with rainfall patterns.
New
research into storm patterns warns that flash floods are likely to
sweep across the Australian landscape with increasing intensity,
particularly in urban or residential areas.
Peak
rainfall is predicted to soar with rising surface temperatures as the
world’s largest island – and also its smallest continent −
experiences ever greater extremes of heat.
California
lawmakers have ordered farmers to reduce their water consumption -
the largest cuts in the US state's history.
State
officials announced on Friday they would be telling nearly 100 water
rights holders to stop pumping from three separate waterways.
This
is the first time in decades that officials have forced thousands of
farmers to draw back water use.
These
farmers' rights to water were decided more than 100 years ago.
Water
rights holders in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and delta watersheds
will have to stop getting water from those streams.
California
has ordered water use cuts for other farmers in other cities across
the state.
The
move has been expected for weeks, the Los Angeles Times reports. It
effects will be varied, with a lot of water harvesting work
continuing on as usual
US
temperature extremes
Hottest
yet coming for Phoenix 110°F by Tuesday, Las Vegas 107°F Death
Valley 121°F Carlos may cool down in a week
Except
along Atlantic coast, all of South Carolina at least 96°F on Monday
-- hottest so far forecast by NWS is 103°F
Giant
purple sea blobs are invading East Bay beaches and waterways. It's
not a danger to the people but the slugs' big size is unusual.
Thousands
Of Tuna Crabs Wash Up On San Diego Beaches
Mysterious
Phenomenon Blamed As tuna crabs invade San Diego beaches.
In
a mysterious phenomenon, thousands of orange- and red-colored tuna
crabs are washing ashore on the beaches of San Diego, California.
According to UT San Diego, these tuna crabs have been spotted from
Sunset Cliffs to Ocean Beach to Scripps Pier.
Reports have also
confirmed the presence of these tuna crabs on Santa Catalina Island,
according to an ABC News report.
While tuna crabs have been spotted
on the island since last year, this is the first time that they have
washed up on San Diego’s beaches in such large numbers.
Meanwhile,
there are reports about the possibility that the phenomenon could be
caused by a mysterious blob of warm water spotted off the West Coast
and Mexico, in the Pacific Ocean.
Despite
a wet spring over much of the nation, the Obama administration is
warning of potentially catastrophic wildfires this summer, especially
in the Southwest and Northwest.
Agriculture
Secretary Tom Vilsack and Interior Secretary Sally Jewell discussed
wildfire threats and fire outlook Tuesday in Denver.
Jewell
says drought and climate change are increasing wildfire danger.
Federal
fire managers say heavy precipitation in May reduced the likelihood
of wildfires this month across much of the nation, but the danger
will increase from July through September.
As if he was going to make a difference at this late juncture
Explosive intervention by Pope Francis set to transform climate change debate
The
most anticipated papal letter for decades will be published in five
languages on Thursday. It will call for an end to the ‘tyrannical’
exploitation of nature by mankind. Could it lead to a step-change in
the battle against global warming?
Washington
fishery managers say they are in “uncharted territory” following
the closure of a major ocean fishery off the state’s southern coast
June 5.
The
Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife announced it was closing
the recreational and commercial Dungeness crab fisheries after
samples of crab revealed unsafe levels of a harmful, naturally
occurring marine toxin called domoic acid that has already shut down
razor clam fisheries in both Oregon and Washington.
Evacuations ordered in 1,000-acre Saddle fire in Northern California
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