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Indonesia at risk from huge fires because of El Niño
17
June, 2015
In
1997-98, extremely dry El Niño conditions in Indonesia kicked off a
wave of large–scale uncontrolled burning, destroying
about five million hectares of tropical forest (equivalent
to seven million football fields). Much of the burning occurred in
carbon-rich peatland forests and continued in two phases from July
1997 until March 1998, releasing vast amounts of carbon
dioxide into
the atmosphere, and huge clouds of smoke and haze across the region.
Present
conditions in the Pacific Ocean are
similar to what they were in mid-1997. El Niño is set to strengthen,
and seasonal weather prediction models point towards this being an
exceptionally dry season. Indonesia and its neighbours should be
worried.
In
order to predict, and hopefully prevent, such fires in the future,
we’ve looked at how far in advance they can be anticipated using a
seasonal weather prediction model.
Deforestation, peat drainage and El Niño
During
the dry season, numerous fires occur in Indonesia’s
peatland forests,
particularly in the southern region of Kalimantan and eastern
Sumatra. Although some rain falls during a normal dry season, it is
sporadic, leaving many windows of opportunity for burning.
Most
of these fires are deliberately lit to clear rainforest to establish
oil palm and Acacia pulp and paper plantations. Fire spread is
enhanced by the increased availability of combustible material,
notably, woody debris as a result of wasteful logging practices, and
the widespread practice of draining peatlands.
When
El Niño strikes, however, the situation changes drastically. During
strong El Niño episodes, almost no rain falls during the dry season
and the monsoon is delayed. So in areas where peatlands have been
degraded by logging and draining, fires ignite easily and once
started, the peat is so dry that fires escape underground, and cannot
be put out until after the monsoon reappears.
At their worst, the fires have enormous impacts on carbon emissions, regional haze production, biodiversity, and the economy, and are recognised as a serious health risk in Indonesia as well as neighbouring Singapore and Malaysia. The fires are a major threat to the remaining orangutans who live in the forests – the Bornean orangutan is rated endangered, and the Sumatran orangutan is critically endangered. During past El Niño years, around one gigatonne of carbon was emitted from peatland forest fires, equivalent to about 10% of annual global fossil fuel emissions, and regional haze from such fires has caused major disruptions to air traffic in nearby Singapore and Kuala Lumpur.
Sea
surface temperatures from the vast array of sea buoys established
across the Pacific Ocean plus other important meteorological data are
now telling us that El
Niño conditions are already in place.
Furthermore, most seasonal weather prediction models, which are
driven by observed SSTs, predict El Niño will strengthen over the
coming months. This means the upcoming dry season in Indonesia will
probably be much drier than usual, and the fires worse.
old;"
bold;"
Probability
rainfall forecasts for Asia for the periods: June-July-August 2015
(top) and September-October-November 2015 (bottom). Author
providedInternational Research Institute (IRI)
bold;"
Probability
rainfall forecasts for Asia for the periods: June-July-August 2015
(top) and September-October-November 2015 (bottom). Author
providedInternational Research Institute (IRI)Early warning systems
The
regional haze problem has become so serious in recent years that the
Singapore government passed the Trans-boundary
Haze Pollution Act in 2014.
This act financially penalises companies listed on the Singapore stock exchange deemed responsible for smoke-haze affecting the city-state but originating elsewhere. The governments of the ten ASEAN member states signed the ASEAN Agreement on Trans-boundary Haze Pollution on 10 June 2002, which Indonesia finally ratified in September 2014.
This act financially penalises companies listed on the Singapore stock exchange deemed responsible for smoke-haze affecting the city-state but originating elsewhere. The governments of the ten ASEAN member states signed the ASEAN Agreement on Trans-boundary Haze Pollution on 10 June 2002, which Indonesia finally ratified in September 2014.
The
agreement requires all states to implement measures to prevent,
monitor and mitigate trans-boundary haze pollution by controlling
peat land and forest fires. It makes explicit mention of the
development of an early fire warning system to help prevent and
mitigate major haze events.
Since
burning is opportunistic, it can happen as soon as conditions will
allow it. Research since the 1997 haze disaster has given us a fairly
reliable understanding of how dry conditions must be in order for
severe fires to happen.
But
by the time these conditions occur, burning has already started,
fires have escaped, and it is too late for prevention. Dry conditions
instead need to be forecast weeks to months in advance for any
prevention to be effective. Up until now, the forecasting component
has been missing.
We
wanted to see if past fires, especially severe El Niño-influenced
fires, could have been predicted using seasonal weather forecasts.
Using satellite observations of fire activity and the case study
region of southern-central Kalimantan, which is characterised by a
June-November dry season, we demonstrated that most of the severe
fires (and associated haze) since 1997 could have been anticipated
using rainfall predictions from the European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts seasonal weather prediction model. A second part of
our work confirmed a clear link between severe fires and massive
forest loss (also estimated from satellite data).
The
implication of our work is that regional weather services,
fire-fighting and resource management agencies are potentially able
to identify areas that are likely to be dangerously dry ahead of
time. Preventing severe uncontrolled burning in Indonesia and
associated impacts will ultimately depend on how well fire is
managed. This is a complex problem involving governments,
multinational companies and indigenous people. Nonetheless, knowing
ahead of time about a potentially bad fire situation will no doubt
form part of the final answer.
While
seasonal predictions are not perfect, and occasionally a year may
turn out differently to what was expected, seasonal forecasts are
anticipated to continue to show improved skill in future. The
challenge remains to build on these advances to create an
Indonesia-wide early fire warning system for operational use.
Puerto
Rico, Grappling With Potentially Historic Drought, Expands Water
Rationing
By
Brianna Lee
17
June, 2015
Puerto
Rico expanded water rationing across several municipalities
Wednesday as it continues to confront a drought of potentially
historic proportions. More than 200,000 people are now facing
regular water supply cutoffs as the government tries to mitigate
the crisis.
Starting
Wednesday, around 110,000 residents near the capital of San Juan
will have water services cut off for 24 hours every other day. They
join another 160,000 residents in the San Juan metropolitan area
who have already been undergoing rationing for the past month. Last
week authorities expanded
the water cutoffs in San Juan to 48 hours every three
days.
The
drought “has the potential to be one of the worst or the worst,
especially in the eastern half of Puerto Rico,” said Ernesto
Morales, coordinator of the National Advisory Service of
Meteorology of Puerto Rico, in a local
radio interview this week. The current rainfall deficit
stems back to 2013, he added. Weather analysts attribute the dry
spell to weather patterns caused by El Niño.
Forty-eight
Puerto Rican municipalities are already undergoing some form of
water use regulation. Residents in those areas face fines for the
misuse of drinking water, including using hoses to clean sidewalks,
fill swimming pools or operate fountains, the president of Puerto
Rico’s Aqueduct and Sewer Authority, Alberto Lazaro, announced in
a press
conference Monday. The National Guard also is providing water
purification services for people in the affected areas.
Gov.
Alejandro Padilla declared a state of emergency over the drought in
May as temperatures soared and water storage levels continued to
decline. In recent days, water levels at the La Plata dam, which
serves San Juan and surrounding municipalities, has “decreased
rapidly,” Lazaro said Monday.
The
dry spell adds another burden to the debt-saddled island, which
currently has an outstanding debt of $73 billion -- $655 million of
which comes
due July 1. Authorities are still struggling to avoid a crisis
with the looming deadline. The Aqueduct and Sewer Authority holds
around $4.8 billion in public-sector debt.
Padilla,
meanwhile, blamed the economic woes for contributing to the drought
crisis. In a local radio interview Monday, he said the current
drought could
have been mitigated if the government had the funds to
build a dam on the Valenciano River, and blamed previous
administrations for failing to prioritize the project.
Last
week Pedro Pierluisi, Puerto Rico’s representative in
Congress, wrote
a letter to U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack
asking for U.S. assistance for the island’s drought and a formal
declaration of disaster. “Drought is occurring in many states,
and USDA has activated various programs that Congress has
authorized in order to help affected communities,” he said
in a statement. “It is critical that Puerto Rico receive
appropriate federal attention given the worsening drought situation
on the island. Our farmers and ranchers need clear information
about what federal assistance is available.”
Puerto
Rico isn’t the only Caribbean island suffering. St. Lucia’s
water authority began rationing water supplies across the island
last week as well. Earlier this month, the Caribbean Institute for
Meteorology & Hydrology warned
of a drier than usual wet season across the region, which
would make for a more severe dry season in 2016. The institute
already has issued drought warnings for several islands in the
Caribbean, including Martinique, St. Vincent and the Grenadines,
Dominica and the Cayman Islands.
NOAA
has released the data for average global surface temperature for the
month of May. The number is 0.87 degrees C (1.57 degrees F) above the
20th century average for their data set. This is the highest value
seen for the month of May since 1880, which is the earliest year in
the database. The previous record value for may was last year. This
year’s May value is 0.08 degrees C (0.14 degrees F) higher than
that.
According
to NOAA:
- The May globally-averaged land surface temperature was 2.30°F (1.28°C) above the 20th century average. This tied with 2012 as the highest for May in the 1880–2015 record.
- The May globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 1.30°F (0.72°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest for May in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record set last year in 2014 by 0.13°F (0.07°C).
WASHINGTON,
D.C. – Alaska’s melting glaciers are adding enough water to the
Earth’s oceans to cover the state of Alaska with a 1-foot thick
layer of water every seven years, a new study shows.
The
study found that climate-related melting is the primary control on
mountain glacier loss. Glacier loss from Alaska is unlikely to slow
down, and this will be a major driver of global sea level change in
the coming decades, according to the study’s authors.
This
is how hot it is in Anchorage: hotter than in Los Angeles.
Temperatures
in Alaska’s biggest city hit 83 degrees on Monday and Tuesday,
records for both calendar days and just two degrees shy of the June
record set in 1969. Temperatures could again hit 80 on Wednesday. In
Los Angeles, temperatures on Monday and Tuesday didn’t crack 80.
Just
how out of whack is that? A normal high for Anchorage was just 63
degrees, as measured between 1981 and 2010, according to the National
Weather Service.
A
giant high pressure system over western Alaska isn’t going away
anytime soon, meaning the state’s unusually hot temperatures could
stick around through the end of the month, said Richard Thoman, the
Fairbanks-based climate science and services manager for the National
Weather Service’s Alaska region.
www.weather.com
June
2015 – WATER CRISIS — Drought-stricken California is not the only
place draining underground aquifers in the hunt for fresh water. It’s
happening across the world, according to two new studies by U.S.
researchers released Tuesday. One-third of Earth’s largest
groundwater basins are being rapidly depleted says new study.
Twenty-one of the world’s 37 largest aquifers — in locations from
India and China to the United States and France — have passed their
sustainability tipping points, meaning more water is being removed
than replaced from these vital underground reservoirs. Thirteen of 37
aquifers fell at rates that put them into the most troubled category.
“The
situation is quite critical,” said Jay Famiglietti, senior water
scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the studies’
principal investigator. And it’s difficult to see it getting better
soon. These groundwater reserves take thousands of years to
accumulate and only slowly recharge with water from snowmelt and
rains. Now, as drilling for water has taken off across the globe, the
hidden water reservoirs are being stressed. Underground aquifers
supply 35 percent of the water used by humans worldwide. Demand is
even greater in times of drought. Rain-starved California is
currently tapping aquifers for 60 percent of its water use, up from
the usual 40 percent.
In
another finding from the studies led by the University of California
Irvine, scientists say that some of these aquifers may be much
smaller than previously thought. Only a few of the aquifers have been
mapped in detail and most estimates of aquifer water reserves have
“uncertainty ranges across orders of magnitude,” according to the
studies. The new studies used NASA’s GRACE satellites to take
unprecedentedly precise measurements of the groundwater reservoirs
hidden beneath the ground. The satellites detected subtle changes in
the gravitational pull of the earth’s surface. Water is
exceptionally heavy and exerts a greater pull on orbiting spacecraft.
As the satellites flew overhead, slight changes in aquifer water
levels were charted over a decade, from 2003 to 2013.
“The water
table is dropping all over the world,” Familglietti said. “There’s
not an infinite supply of water.” –National Post
Water
shut-offs have now begun in California, where government-ordered
restrictions are starting to leave large communities high and dry. As
CBS News is now reporting, the Mountain House community of 15,000
residents will run out of water in just a matter of days.
From
the University of Copenhagen
SEA
LEVEL RISE Global warming leads to the ice sheets on land melting and
flowing into the sea, which consequently rises. New calculations by
researchers from the Niels Bohr Institute show that the sea level in
Northern Europe may rise more than previously thought. There is a
significant risk that the seas around Scandinavia, England, the
Netherlands and northern Germany will rise by up to about 1½ meters
in this century. The results are published in a special issue of the
scientific journal Climate Research.
A
new study by physical oceanographers at Woods Hole Oceanographic
Institution (WHOI), published in the Journal of Geophysical Research,
shows that water temperatures in this continental shelf region have
been trending upward, with unprecedented warming occurring over the
last 13 years. The study also suggests a connection between sea level
anomalies and water temperature along the continental shelf.
"The
warming rate since 2002 is 15 times faster than from the previous 100
years," says co-author Glen Gawarkiewicz, a WHOI senior
scientist. "There's just been this incredible acceleration to
the warming, and we don't know if its decadal variability, or if this
trend will continue."
A
massive toxic algal bloom has closed shellfish fisheries along the
West Coast.
"It
appears to be the largest we've seen in terms of severity and
magnitude," said Michael Milstein, spokesman with NOAA
Fisheries.
He
said when the ocean is warm and not "mixing," algae grow
and produce a toxin, which is then eaten by sardines, anchovy and
other fish that feed on the algae.
Our
pictures show extremely heavy snow , up to five times the norm , says
Senior Eirik Malnes .
It
is extremely much snow in the mountains , both in the north and south
. Measurements taken from satellites show that 23 percent of land
areas in southern Norway is still covered in snow, there are nearly
five times more than normal in June . In Northern Norway, the
corresponding figures are 35 , more than double a normal year.
It
is the research institute NORUT in Tromsø by daily satellite remote
sensing documents that nearly a quarter of the land area is in the
south and one third in the north are still snowy . Measurements are
made continuously since 2000. On average snødekningsprosenten 5
percent in the South and 10 in the north in mid-June .
Just
in case you didn’t already know
Millions
of bees are dying off, with alarming consequences for our environment
and our food supply. We rely on bees to pollinate everything from
almonds to strawberries to the hay used to feed dairy cows. What
happens if the bees disappear? It’s simple: No bees, no food.
The
pope’s encyclical has come out
Pontiff’s 180-page intervention in climate change debate casts blame for ‘ecological crisis’ on the indifference of the powerful.
Climate
change could be responsible for humpback whales becoming exhausted
during their annual migration to warmer waters, a whale researcher
says.
Janelle
Braithwaite examined historical whaling data and says climate change
may be depleting the Antarctic food sources whales rely on to store
energy for their long journey to breeding grounds off WA's northern
coast.
"If
the ice declines in the area that these forage in, then that will
reduce krill and that will reduce how much food they have," Ms
Braithwaite said.
"Whales
live this feast-and-fast lifestyle.
"Over
the summer they're feasting up on krill down in the Southern Ocean
but once they leave, they're pretty much fasting during their
migration journey.
"It's
a bit like a car, if there's not enough petrol at the petrol station,
then you're setting off with three quarters of a tank and you might
not be able to make it.
"If
these whales run out of petrol before they get back to the Southern
Ocean, then there's no safety net, they will die from exhaustion."
The
research was done as part of Ms Braithwaite's PhD at the University
of Western Australia.
She
also said there were other factors making the process of migration
more difficult for whales.
"Mining
activities, boating activities, and even fishing activities have the
potential to make it a much less calm environment for whales so they
end up using more energy," she said.
"If
mining activity has caused more boat activity in these areas then
instead of resting, these whales are going to be moving around using
more energy then maybe they would have if human activities hadn't
been there."
Ms
Braithwaite said the issues were causing a decline in the whale
population and female humpback whales were especially vulnerable.
"They're
having to feed a calf as well," she said.
"She's
using more of her own energy stores because she's going faster and
having to give more milk to the calf as they're burning more energy
as well.
"If
she's using more of her energy stores then she might only be able to
afford to have a calf maybe once every three years or once every four
years."
Ms
Braithwaite's studies were commissioned by the UWA's Oceans
Institute.
World’s
water supply quickly running dry – NASA Report
New data from NASA claims that a third of the world’s water reservoirs are running low, and numerous causes, including climate change, are being implicated. Anya Parampil has more details
A
disturbing trend in the water sector is accelerating worldwide. The
new “water barons” — the Wall Street banks and elitist
multibillionaires — are buying up water all over the world at
unprecedented pace.
Familiar
mega-banks and investing powerhouses such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan
Chase, Citigroup, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, Macquarie Bank,
Barclays Bank, the Blackstone Group, Allianz, and HSBC Bank, among
others, are consolidating their control over water. Wealthy tycoons
such as T. Boone Pickens, former President George H.W. Bush and his
family, Hong Kong’s Li Ka-shing, Philippines’ Manuel V.
Pangilinan and other Filipino billionaires, and others are also
buying thousands of acres of land with aquifers, lakes, water rights,
water utilities, and shares in water engineering and technology
companies all over the world.
The
second disturbing trend is that while the new water barons are buying
up water all over the world, governments are moving fast to limit
citizens’ ability to become water self-sufficient (as evidenced by
the well-publicized Gary Harrington’s case in Oregon, in which the
state criminalized the collection of rainwater in three ponds located
on his private land, by convicting him on nine counts and sentencing
him for 30 days in jail). Let’s put this criminalization in
perspective:
Australia’s
“big four” banks have bucked a global trend by heavily favouring
investment in fossil fuel projects over renewable energy by $6 to $1
since the global financial crisis, according to a new report.
It
took over 95,600 NASA photo files taken from the International Space
Station and a month of meticulous photo editing to produce this epic
high-definition time-lapse video.
The
compilation work turned almost 110 Gigabytes of original material
into some 40 minutes of raw footage in 4K resolution. Of those Dmitry
Pisanko, a Russian photo blogger, selected four minutes of highlights
Mainstream
presentation from CNN
Scientists:
Climate change is happening
Cases
of Vibrio vulnificus, a flesh-eating bacteria that has already
claimed two lives in Florida this year, may be more widespread as a
warming trend continues.
A
total of eight Vibrio vulnificus cases have been reported so far in
2015 across six different counties. Two cases resulted in death - one
in Brevard County and one in Marion County.
The
bacteria thrives in areas of warm water including oceans, lakes and
rivers. Most cases occur in Gulf Coast states.
"The
warming rate since 2002 is 15 times faster than from the previous 100
years," says co-author Glen Gawarkiewicz, a WHOI senior
scientist. "There's just been this incredible acceleration to
the warming, and we don't know if its decadal variability, or if this
trend will continue."
It's
not going to be cooling down any time soon in the Las Vegas valley.
An
Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect from 10 a.m. today through
11 p.m. Monday. Very hot temperatures are expected during this
period, with the hottest days expected over the weekend as forecasted
highs exceed 110 degrees. Children, the elderly, the homeless, pets
and people with chronic ailments are at the highest risk for heat
related illnesses. Heat exhaustion and heat stroke can result from
prolonged exposure to the extreme heat.
17 June 2015 (Carbon Counter) – Last year China installed more new wind and solar capacity than any country in history. This is a fact, and it has led some to talk of China being a “renewables powerhouse” and of there being a “renewables revolution”.
But out of context, this fact can be much less impressive than it really is.
Let me put it into context by using the most recent data from BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy. [more]
Drought is creating problems in river systems all around the Northwest. Nowhere is this more evident than on the Klamath River in Southern Oregon and Northern California. Scientists there say there’s not enough cool water flowing, and a massive die-off of young Chinook salmon could happen anytime now.
Releasing more water from upstream reservoirs could help the fish stay healthy, but water managers say they can’t increase the flow. Jes Burnsfrom Here & Now contributor Oregon Public Broadcasting and EarthFix, a public media collaborative in the Northwest, has the story.
Climate
change threatens waterfront developments and seaside cities around
the world, but for some, the stakes are higher than simply having to
move a few miles inland, or even having to relinquish large cities
like Miami, Amsterdam and Shanghai. For the citizens of around six to
10 island nations, climate change could rob them of their entire
country.
While
it’s impossible to know precisely what will happen in the future –
and it’s worth pointing out that some research suggests a few
island states might not be doomed by rising sea levels – many
scientists fear that, no matter what mitigations we make, we’ve
already condemned some countries to a physical disappearance. Even if
we switched off all emissions now, we probably already have enough
climate change-causing greenhouse gas emissions to result in another
foot or two of sea level rise in the coming years. “It might be
that no amount of technology will allow us to prevent inundation of
some low-lying island nations,” says Michael Mann, a renowned
meteorologist at Pennsylvania State University. “That’s a
reminder of what I like to call the procrastination penalty, of
certain tipping points that we’ve physically and societally
crossed.
- 1.5 inches of rain fell in just 20 hours causing flash floods throughout south China's Guangxi region
- The pig farm was in a valley with steep mountains on either side which caused the water level to rise rapidly
- Pictures were shared on Chinese social media sparking concerns that meat could end up at local markets
- Flooding has hit 40 counties in 10 cities of Guangxi leaving three people dead and five others missing
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