change scientists have projected continued global greenhouse gas
emissions would heat Northland heat up more than other regions -
leadingto increased wild fires, flooding and coastal erosion,
invasive pests and more drought by the end of the century.
what reads like an apocalyptic fiction, the Climate Change
Projections and Implications for Northland report warns that the
region would also be hit with an increased risk of salmonella, dengue
fever and Ross River virus and a threat to some crops, with some
effects visible by 2050.
by Northland Regional Council, Niwa climate scientist Petra Pearce
and her team note that Northland's 25 annual days of recorded
temperatures of more than 25C would increase to 100 days.
reported last week that Whangarei was the warmest NZ area in 2016,
with a mean average temperature of 16.9C, making Northland the
warmest region for the fifth year running.
additional 75 hot days and a maximum average, annual temperature
increase of 3.3C by 2090 would see Northland overtake Hawke's Bay and
Canterbury as the hottest region overall with the largest temperature
localised report was calculated regionally from global data, taken
from a number of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
reports, using historical climate data from 1986.
considered four scenarios from the removal of emissions to the
extreme "business as usual" scenarios until 2040 and 2090,
Pearce told the Advocate.
stood out as the major change in Northland, was the increase in
temperature ... higher than all other regions," she said.
report projected that by springtime 2090, there would be a
temperature rise of up to 2.8C in Northland, with 1-12 per cent less
rainfall in Kaitaia and 3-17 per cent less rainfall in Whangarei.
summer, there would be a 0.7C to 3.3C temperature rise and 2-6 per
cent more rainfall in Kaitaia and Whangarei, while autumn would bring
a 0.7C to 3.2C temperature rise and 1-5 per cent more rainfall in
Whangarei, with up to 4 per cent increase in Kaitaia rainfall.
could see more floods and storm damage such as this at Lemons Hill in
winter would see a 0.7C to 3C temperature rise, 6 per cent less to 1
per cent more rainfall in Kaitaia and 1-9 per cent less rainfall in
said the projections depended on the uncertain future global
emissions and were not be taken as definitive.
weather would increase in intensity with more thunderstorms and wind
with ex-tropical cyclones likely be stronger and cause more damage as
a result of heavy rain and strong winds.
increase of 7 per cent in drought frequency was also projected from
2030 and 2050, and up 10 per cent from 2070 to 2090, compared to
said the region could also experience an increase in the occurrence
of summer water-borne and food-borne diseases such as salmonella,
with an increased risk from vector-borne diseases [transmitted by
bites] such as dengue fever and the Ross River virus.
change would also result in an increased biosecurity risk from
invasive pests, which would impact pasture and horticultural crops.
Existing pests were at risk of becoming serious problems with even a
slight increase in temperature.
Whangarei's Hikurangi Swamp be flooded more often?
production of some fruit, such as kiwifruit, would no longer be
viable by 2050 because of a lack of winter chilling with warmer
temperatures, a longer growing season and rare frosts would require
new sub-tropical crops, such as persimmon or macadamia.
grower David Kelly said growers would find ways to thrive, in spite
of climate change, thanks to the Zespri-funded breeding programmes at
Plant and Food Research in Kerikeri.
the Niwa timeframe, it is doable to produce plants in 15 to 20 years
which would withstand temperature changes."
added that there was room for more irrigation innovation.
Northland's sea levels would reflect the national projection with New
Zealand tide records showing an average rise in relative mean sea
level of 1.7mm per year over the 20th century.
report said coastal roads and infrastructure would face increased
risk from coastal erosion and inundation, increased storminess and
can also read the Ministry for the Environment's summary here.
environmental changes by 2090:
75 more 'hot days' a year * Up to 3.3C hotter in summer *
Double the time spent in drought * Increased flood risk *
Coastal erosion * Risk of salmonella, dengue fever, Ross River
virus * Increased biosecurity threat from invasive pests *
Uneconomic crops, kiwifruit (by 2050)
run out of water around Hastings as aquifer level drops
low water level in the Heretaunga aquifer is making itself felt
outside of Hastings.
and businesses not connected to the town water supply are finding
their bores and pumps unable to access the groundwater.
Pumps & Filtration co-owner Michael Harris said he has had
several callouts in the past week or so to the southern Riverslea,
York, Tollemache and Maraekakaho Rd areas from people whose pump
systems are struggling.
depends on their location, but for many there are pumps getting
water is still there and may be dropping off by only a metre, but
because a lot of those were original artesian pump systems designed
around that, with the water table dropping, we are having to alter
the pipework and in some cases put in different systems."
addition, a lot of pumps were hooked on top of the well, which let in
air and stopped the pump.
some people the solution was to put an extra pipe down inside the
bore to reach the water - others needed their pumps replaced.
said problems started arising last week, and yesterday he took about
10 calls in the morning from residents whose houses had run out of
people are pretty understanding, although the people with businesses
attached to that supply are a bit more stressed and we are trying to
prioritise the work for them."
person they had dealt with who had an irrigation bore had had to turn
it off, he said.
said his company had been in business about 50 years and this year's
situation was unusual.
had years in the past where the water level has dropped in a small
location of houses - this is a whole different area of properties
where the water levels have dropped further."
business owner, Jimmy Macken, of Bareknuckle Backyard BBQ on
Riverslea Rd, said he had to call for assistance when a pump
developed an airlock.
got them to come urgently because we are a commercial operation. We
had no staff working through the morning until the situation was
sorted, we can't run a kitchen without water."
said it was fortunate the water pump didn't burn out, as some others
had, and all it needed was a pipe put down the well five metres
deeper than it had been.
from staff not coming in for part of the day he said the business
have no issues with it, where we live it's part of the deal."
Bay Regional Council environment officer Ian Lilburn said the water
table was exceptionally low.
have had quite a number of bores we record showing record lows for
the month of December.
comes down to a lack of rain to recharge the aquifer system."
said the Heretaunga aquifer was mainly recharged by the Ngaruroro
River and it was hoped rain in the hills in the next week or so would
dry weather also meant a lot of irrigators were working, but as long
as they were complying with their consent conditions the regional
council had no power to stop them, Mr Lilburn said.
Ngaruroro River was running at 3200 litres per second, and a complete
irrigation ban was not enforced until that had dropped to 2400 litres
we do not get rain in the next seven to 10 days things are going to
look quite serious as far as flows in the Ngaruroro River go.
quite concerning is that these conditions are normally experienced in
February so it's all a bit ahead of normal."
of yesterday, MetService was predicting nothing more than a few
showers through to next Saturday.
Hawkes Bay Today
it's snowing in the middle of summer
summer but that hasn't stopped snow from falling across North
Island mountain ranges.
"North Island mid-summer snow on the Tararua Ranges. Photo / Horowhenua Chronicle
ski field was this morning blanketed in a fresh coating of snow and
even the Tararua Ranges behind Levin were white after an overnight
of the lower North Island was covered by cloud this morning, but
forecasters say the temperatures dived low enough for snow flurries
on the tops of the inland mountain range.
woke to picture postcard views of snow on the Tararua Ranges.
Island mid-summer snow on the Tararua Ranges. Photo / Horowhenua
Johnstone said she had taken photos in December 2004 of snow on the
hills, while Bex Bang said there had been snow in February a couple
of years ago.
Kearns remembered a time some years ago when she and her husband gave
their sons a swimming pool for Christmas, with strict instructions
that, despite it being installed beforehand, they could only have
their first swim on Christmas day.
was snow on Christmas Day in the hills and it was freezing," she
still went in for their swim though."
this year's snow has brought a chilly air to the Horowhenua,
temperatures look set to improve, with Metservice forecasting highs
of 20 and 21 degrees Celsius for the district early next week
line of thunderstorms moved across South Australia, dumping heavy
rain including 58 millimetres at Leigh Creek, 49mm at Little Para
Reservoir, 45mm at Edinburgh and 38mm at Wudinna.
winds were also recorded, with a wind gust of 111 kilometres per hour
at Adelaide Airport, while there were also 72 lightning strikes in
traffic lights in the city were not working this morning.
were directing traffic at Glynde Corner as thousands of Tour Down
Under Challenge riders tested their cardio skills, ahead of the
professional race later today.
have fallen on powerlines, cars and houses across the city. Some
businesses have not opened because they are without power.
night 58,000 customers were in the dark and at 5:30am today, 33,000
properties were still without power.
Power Networks spokesman Paul Roberts said many people would be
without power for an extended period.
said the storm had caused widespread issues and crews were working
frantically to restore supplies.
had 72,000 lightning strikes between 7:00pm and 9:00pm in South
Australia, there's been a significant damage to the electricity
network, particularly for metropolitan area customers," Mr
said Adelaide was hardest hit but power had gone off across the Yorke
and Eyre peninsulas and in the Mid North.
storm has been one of many in recent months that has caused
really getting unprecedented weather, people who have been working
for 35 years in SA Power Networks say they've never seen this number
of storms, this intensity of storms and this frequency of storms,"
Mr Roberts said.
been crazy since July and I hope people understand it is weather
State Emergency Service's Mike Baker said crews were kept busy after
receiving 300 calls for help.
or tree branches falling onto roads and cars or you know, leaning
against roofs, as well as a bit of water sort of damage," Mr
of Meteorology forecaster Julie Guerin said the rain would make its
way through the Riverland this morning and move into the eastern
still fairly awful up the top of the hills," she said, just
came down the freeway from Crafers and it was a bit of a pea soup up
here ... visibility is very low, the roads very slippery, a lot of
debris on the roads.
if you are driving through the hills and coming down from there take
it very easy."
is still a severe thunderstorm warning for parts of the North West
Pastoral and North East Pastoral districts.