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Besieged by the Fires of Denial — Fort McMurray Blaze Grows to Overwhelm Anzac, Shuts off 640,000 Barrels per Day of Tar Sands Production
5
May, 2016
The
simple fact of the matter, a fact that many invested in a destructive
oil industry do not want to now face, is
that a fire whose early-season extreme intensity was fueled by
human-caused climate change is
now doing what Canada would not. It is shutting in oil production in
the tar sands — one of the highest carbon fuels on planet Earth.
(Increases
in fire frequency due to climate change as
predicted by model runs are illustrated in the map above. According
to a
report at WeatherUnderground —
“A large increase in fires over much of the globe is expected as we
move through this century. Using fire models driven by output from
sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report,researchers
found that 38%
of the planet should see increases in fire activity [due
to climate change] over
the next 30 years. This
figure increases to 62% by the end of the century.”
Image source: Climate
Change and Disruptions to Global Fire Activity.)
There
are other facts that need to be faced as well. One is the fact that
Fort McMurray and all its residents have had their lives put at risk
by a new kind of fire that is now much more likely to occur. A kind
of event that will tend to emerge with a rising frequency and
intensity. One that is increasing the risk of harm to those living
throughout Canada, throughout the Arctic and throughout much of the
world.
It’s
a tough truth to face. One that many Canadian politicians confronting
the impossible task of balancing the demands of oil-based economic
interests with the very clear need to mitigate climate change are
having difficulty coming to grips with. But one that must be
seriously looked at and not ignored by everyone concerned for the
safety of those living in Fort McMurray and everywhere else. For
unless the greenhouse gasses from the burning of fossil fuels like
the tar sands stop hitting our atmosphere, then these kinds of events
will just keep getting worse.
For
we are already starting to see terrible wildfire events of the kind
we have never before experienced emerging in the Arctic and in
sections of Northern North America. For with the world now 1 C warmer
that 1880s averages, large
Arctic wildfires are now ten times more likely to occur.
And in Alaska — a region that shares climate trends with Canada —
the length of the fire season has grown by 40 percent since the
1950s.
Across
the globe, the story is much the same. Heating of our atmosphere by
burning fossil fuels is increasing fire frequency and intensity. A
point that even conservative IPCC projections have been attempting to
impress upon policy-makers since the early 1990s (see graphic above).
And, in significant part, this rising danger has been contributed to
by the tar sands fuels Fort McMurray’s energy industry was designed
to extract.
(A
study by Climate Central last year found that warming in Alaska had
resulted in a lengthening of the fire season by 40 percent and that
the pace of large fire generation had increased by tenfold [x10].
It’s worth noting that climate and foliage in Alberta, British
Columbia, and the Northwest Territories are very similar to those in
Alaska. And increasing fire intensity and frequency due to warming in
Alaska is also impacting the Canadian fire regime as well. Image
source: The
Age of Alaskan Wildfires.)
Despite
the risky and harmful policy choices driven by the fossil fuel
industry in Canada, we should not be callous to the loss and
dislocation many within the tar sands production zone are now
enduring. It’s a tragedy. Plain and simple. Thousands of people
have lost their homes and livelihoods. But we should not allow
ourselves to be blinded to the reality of the situation simply due to
the fact that it is an oil community, this time, suffering from the
ravages of extreme climate conditions. For thousands of Canadians are
now joining a growing pool of climate change refugees. Victims of
and, some of them, contributors to a catastrophe born out of an
oil-industry spread hubris and blindness. An event that shines a
light on the continued and increasing risks posed by tar sands
extraction and on the vulnerability of that harmful fuel’s economic
underpinnings to the very climate forces it is now starting to set
loose.
Rapidly
Expanding Fire Forces Airport and the Anzac Community 31 Miles Away
From Fort McMurray to Evacuate
(Pyrocumulus
— a storm cloud forming from the heat updraft of an intense fire. A
word that will start to enter common usage as human-forced climate
change makes powerful fires more and more common. Here we see a
massive pyrocumulus approaching Anzac and the Fort McMurray Airport
on Wednesday. Image source: Sean
Amato’s Twitter Feed.)
Yesterday,
as firefighters scrambled to protect the Fort McMurray city center
and northern outliers, a massive fire besieging the city boiled and
grew. Pushed back from its north-bound progress into neighborhoods
along the Athabasca River, toward the barren tar sands extraction
area, and into the water treatment plant by firefighting efforts, the
fire swelled as it retreated. Turning to the south and east, it began
to encroach upon the city’s airport even as one of its offshoots
exploded toward the well-populated suburb of Anzac 30 miles to the
south.
There,
an emergency operations center had just set up after being forced to
move from its downtown location when a rain of embers cast out from
the pyrocumulus cloud looming over the city set its roof to
smoldering. The new operations center was well away from the
projected northbound path of the blaze. And officials had some reason
to believe the recently-moved center would be safe. A southern
evacuation center — housing hundreds of people now rendered
homeless by the fire — was also set up in the area.
By
Wednesday afternoon, the airport, the Anzac community, the newly
moved emergency operations center, and the evacuation center all fell
under the shadow of a swelling pyrocumulus. A great storm of smoke,
ash and burning embers thrown up from the heat of the blaze beneath.
All in this area were forced to evacuate (a good number for the
second time in as many days) as the huge cloud grew and the fires
advanced.
(Fort
McMurray Fire invades Anzac beneath a towering pyrocumulus Wednesday
evening. Image source: Emily
Metrz’s Twitter Feed.)
As
night fell, smoke shrouded the airport — blocking it from view. And
many firefighters already knew the community of Anzac would be
lost. Sean
Amato tweeted
this message Wednesday evening as the fire advanced — “Firefighter
[says], ‘Anzac is f**cked. We can’t fight that. We have no
bombers. Get out now.'”
By
Thursday, a massive area stretching from the airport to Anzac had
been abandoned to the fire. Greatly adding to the 10,000 hectares the
huge blaze was estimated to have burned as of noon Wednesday by
expanding the fire more than 8-fold to 85,000 hectares — an area
six times the size of San Fransisco.
Tar
Sands Production Shut-in
At
this point, fires had displaced so many workers and crippled so much
infrastructure that tar sands production in the region came to a
grinding halt. As of early Thursday morning more
than 640,000 barrels per day of the climatologically volatile
synthetic crude had halted.
Representing more than 16 percent of Canada’s crude production, the
fire-forced cuts were significant enough to drive oil prices in the
global markets as
high as 46 dollars a barrel in trading earlier today.
More production shut ins were likely with other major tar sands
extractors scrambling to slash oil flows as the Fort McMurray blaze
became ever-less predictable. Near Anzac, the southern extent of the
fires threatened a 30,000 barrel per day Conoco Philips tar sands
production facility in the Surmont region — forcing a production
halt and the evacuation of all tar sands workers.
(LANCE-MODIS
satellite shot of Fort McMurray Fire on Thursday, May 5 shows the
fire expanding toward tar sands extraction facilities. For reference,
tar sands operations are pit mines plainly visible as brown, bald
areas in the image above. Most of Fort McMurray is covered by the
smoke plume. Bottom edge of frame is 60 miles. Image
Source: LANCE-MODIS.)
By
late Thursday afternoon, the passing MODIS satellite revealed a very
large fire whose northern extent appears to have reached within 3-5
kilometers of the southern-most tar sands facilities. In the image
above, the western edge of the Fort McMurray fire appears to feature
a 10-15 kilometer front. The southern and eastern edges remain
obscured by what is now a very large smoke plume. One that is likely
now visible in the skies over North-Central States of the US.
A
Long Battle Ahead as Temperatures are Predicted to Remain Much Hotter
Than Normal
A
wind shift to the north along with the influx of cooler temperatures
on Thursday may help firefighters gain some progress. Conditions over
Fort McMurray today were cloudy with 10-15 mph winds out of the
northwest and temperatures around 64 (F). However, little to no rain
fell over the area as a front swept through this morning. Meanwhile,
thermometer readings are expected to climb into the middle 80s again
on Saturday with very dry conditions taking hold.
To
this point, it is only May — not July when such extreme fire
weather would typically be possible. Average temperatures for Fort
McMurray tend toward the upper 50s or lower 60s this time of year. So
even today’s readings of 64 F are warmer than usual with
temperatures predicted to rocket to 20-25 F above average again by
Saturday. Given this trend, and given the fact that it will grow
still hotter and drier in the months ahead, it looks like Fort
McMurray — a city in the grips of the hard climate consequences it
helped to create — is in for a long, rough fight.
Links:
Hat
tip to Wharf Rat
Hell on earth ...
ReplyDeleteGet ready for much worse.
Cyanide for the prepared???