On the brink: climate change looms over Egypt
Attempts
to adjust Egypt’s approach to climate change have gained new
ground, but is it too late?
21
May, 2016
Half
a million citizens are currently fleeing their homes in Sri Lanka
after the heaviest rains in 25 years fell over the capital of Colombo
earlier this week. More than 60 people have already died, while there
still remains a possibility that the death toll will continue to
climb.
This
incident cannot be separated from the context of global existential
threats triggered by climate change. Rather it is a continuation of
climate change effects that the world started wrestling with during
2015.
Citizens
who are living in unplanned suburbs with poorly-constructed housing
are the most in danger of climate change in Egypt (Menan Khater/DNE)
“The
global average surface temperature in 2015 broke all previous records
by a strikingly wide margin,” the United Nations World
Meteorological Organisation (WMO) stated in
March. “For the first time on record, temperatures were about 1
degree Celsius above the pre-industrial era.”
This
rise has taken its toll on many other parts of the world, including
Egypt, according to WMO.
The
Sri Lanka floods reflect that the pace of climate change effects is
much faster than the diplomatic negotiations pace, which puts forth
the need for expedited measures to contain the phenomenon.
Unspecified
plans
Representatives
of nearly 200 countries reached a historic binding agreement in
December 2015 that set ambitious goals to keep a global temperature
rise this century below 2 degrees Celsius. The agreement was opened
for signatures in late April during a ceremony in New York attended
by over 130 countries.
Several
articles of the agreement, including articles 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, and
13, stated that each country should submit Intended Nationally
Determined Contributions (INDC) to outline strategies towards the 2
degrees goal based on local conditions.
The
agreement also highlighted the concept of shared responsibility among
parties. It stated that members of the developed world should empower
developing countries with needed funds and technologies to implement
their intended strategies.
Highlighting
a stance that sees climate change as an inevitable phenomenon and
Egypt’s susceptibility to its adverse effects as asymmetrical to
the developed north, Egypt advocates a strategy of adaptation rather
than continued mitigation.
At
a press conference a few days following his return from the Paris
summit, Minister of Environment Khaled Fahmy said: “Other countries
were pushing us to adopt elimination strategies, but what we truly
need is adaptation.”
Despite
the importance of sharing responsibility, the Egyptian Centre for
Economic and Social Rights (ECESR) said: “Egypt should rethink
mitigation strategies as well, use political will to enforce
worldwide mitigation.”
Amena
Sharaf, an environmental researcher at ECESR, told Daily News Egypt:
“the Egypt INDC was broad and not detailed. It also did not
slightly mention plans of expanding the use of fossil coal in the new
energy mix.”
More
than 162 countries submitted their INDCs so far. Despite the
variation between countries economies, a wide range submitted
similarly detailed objectives with clear timeframes; even countries
that are witnessing security challenges like Yemen, according to
published INDCs on
the UNFCCC website.
In
the energy sector, Yemen pledged
to promote off-grid electrification of individual rural Households
for “110,000 rural HH, 45% of identified market potential, to be
electrified Solar Home Systems until 2025, with installed capacity
around 5.5 MWp”.
Meanwhile,
other countries with less CO2 emissions than Egypt, such as Chad,
with only 0.04 metric tonnes, stated thorough mitigation strategies.
It pledged to reduce 18.2% of CO2 emissions by 2030 as an
unconditional contribution, and 71% between 2016 and 2030 as a
conditional contribution.
A
woman tries to pull out her buried mattress from under the remnants
of waterlogged furniture in Abdelkader village near Alexandria (Menan
Khater/DNE)
This
thorough preview of intended contributions and needs, backed up by
data and figures, has been adopted by many other countries as well,
including China, Afghanistan, United States, and Tunisia, according
to their published INDCs.
Egypt
pledges: “Improving energy efficiency, utilising solar energy for
water heating, and using renewable energy for power generation,” in
itsINDC among
mitigation measures; not mentioning by timeframe or exact
percentages. The INDC also stated Egypt’s need for $73bn as a total
estimate to undertake mitigation measures, without specifying their
allocations.
Endangered
lives
Despite
contributing just 0.6% to the world’s CO2 emissions, Egypt is a
vulnerable country to climate change. In August 2015, at least 97
people died from heat exhaustion, while in November dozens died and
others were displaced after floods caused by heavy rainfall hit
Alexandria and Beheira.
Located
a few kilometres away from the city of Alexandria, AbdelKader village
suffered gravely during the rain floods.
In
a visit by Daily News Egypt to the remote village, it was became
apparent that the losses were far worse than previously thought.
Citizens attributed the main reason behind this to the village’s
ailing infrastructure and delayed official response to resolve it.
Nearly
a month after the rainfall, the water was still seen covering the
streets of AbdelKader. Citizens step on scattered wooden pieces to
avoid the thick mud. However, this is a much better situation than
the days of heavy rainfall. “Back then, we used a boat to move
around,” said Rafaat, one of the citizens.
This
was not the first time AbdelKader village has been affected by heavy
rainfall. However, citizens agreed that this time was much worst. The
water reached unprecedented levels, damaging home appliances,
overloading water drainage canals, and leaving dozens of families in
peril.
“All
my furniture was ruined, the kitchen, the bedroom, and all
appliances,” Rafaat told Daily News Egypt. “I also saved one of
my children twice from drowning in the water.”
The
residents said there were no significant casualties, and nearly all
homes in the village were without electricity for at least 10 days
after the rain stopped. The level of damage varied from one home to
another.
The
majority of the families were not ready for the consequences of such
heavy rainfall. One family with a bride-to-be lost some brand new
furniture and appliances. They tried to raise the ground inside their
home by a few centimetres using cement in order to avoid further
flooding.
Atef
Amin, director of the Egyptian Coalition for Slums Development, told
Daily News Egypt that 60% of the buildings in Egypt were not planned
properly during construction. Among that percentage, he said there
are at least 850,000 inhabitants in unsafe areas, which are located
on unstable ground.
According
to Amin, those areas lack all kinds of public services, including
access to clean water, drainage canals, and electricity.
“The
existence of those areas is a fundamental barrier for development
ambitions. And municipality corruption makes it worse,” Amin said.
“Meanwhile, those citizens have no other choice as they cannot
afford to live in normal apartments.”
The
plight of unplanned urban areas has piled up over many decades due to
increasing demand from citizens across Egypt to find better
opportunities in the capital, and an inadequate official response to
address their hardships.
However,
it seems that the current regime is trying to pick up the pieces.
During the inauguration of new social housing programme on the
outskirts of Cairo, President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi said on Thursday:
“unsafe suburbs are below the standard of living that the Egyptian
people deserve.”
Al-Sisi
ordered for the Ministry of Housing and the Armed Forces to ramp up
development efforts to better the suburbs that are deemed unsafe
within a two-year period. Unfortunately, climate change does not wait
for anyone.
Overhaul
opportunities
A
few days after the ratification of the historic Paris Climate
Conference [COP21]
agreement, Egypt started developing its responsibilities and
capabilities to contain climate change.
The
National Council for Climate Change announced it would hold its first
meeting in early May, with representatives from 10 ministries, to
outline collaborative action steps, which include mitigating CO2
emissions and adapting to the effects of climate change.
Besides
infrastructure deficiencies, climate change is expected to affect
wider sectors in Egypt. A World Bank report stated
in 2014 that if temperatures increased to 1.5 degrees, heat waves in
Cairo will extend for a complete month, while 1.9 million Egyptians
will be threatened by a rise in sea levels. Meanwhile, Egypt’s
Third National Communication (TNC) report highlighted
potential damages to the tourism industry, which has already
witnessed a steep decline since 2011, especially in resort areas
located along the Red Sea.
Magdy
Allam, secretary-general of the Union of Arab Environment Experts,
said Egypt needs to undertake further short term measures.
“If
we do not have an adaptation and mitigation programme immediately
this year … we will never be able to control climate change,” he
told Daily News Egypt.
According
to Allam, those strategies begin with modifying the INDC, allocating
$3bn annually for adaptation projects, transferring to smart
agriculture, and creating a zero pollution industry.
Considering
the Nile Delta as one of the red spots for climate change impact,
Allam asserted development strategies should transfer to the western
desert. He referred to the 1.5m hectares national project as an
adaptation asset.
Egypt
also needs to advance healthcare sector’s capacity, as Allam
considers high temperature a trigger for old viruses and bacteria
like Ebola, Malaria, and recently Zika.
In
terms of mitigation, Allam said Egypt needs to immediately transfer
to clean energy, by giving up fossil fuels, and cultivating at least
22m trees all over industrial zones to act as an absorption tool to
carbon emissions.
Meanwhile,
an increasing level of awareness in Egypt towards climate issues is
considered an asset for enhancing adaptation and mitigation
strategies.
350.org international
movement, began in Egypt in 2009 with a group of individuals
concerned about climate change, with an aim to bring the attention to
the issue and become part of relevant international events.
In
early May, the movement took part in a global campaign entitled Break
Free against use of fossil fuels by previewing a documentary
screening on coal use in Egypt.
Sarah
Rifaat, Arab World Coordinator at 350, told Daily News Egypt that the
movement’s mission of increasing awareness is usually focused on
merging different art forms with real stories.
In
February, 350 conducted a seminar about the impact of climate change
on Egypt’s agriculture sector. In November 2015, they organised a
run in Alexandria with volunteers holding signs that illustrate
Egypt’s climate conditions.
“The
audience interacted with those activities. The activities also
reflected that climate change is still an overlooked issue in Egypt,”
Rifaat said. The movement strives to find more innovative approaches
to reach wider segments, according to Rifaat.
“People
are familiar with the effects of climate change. Their lives were
affected with it; yet they do not understand that those crises were
triggered by climate change resulting from increased CO2 emissions
and burning fossil fuels,” she said. “It is all about connecting
the dots.”
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