**EXTREME WEATHER ALERT**

Cyclone Pam expected to be Category 5 within 48 hours

Vanuatu's National Disaster Management Office says it is preparing for the worst as Tropical Cyclone Pam is expected to be upgraded to a category five storm in the next two days.

Radio NZ,

12 March, 2015, 12.43 pm

The cyclone is moving slowly towards Vanuatu with winds at its centre of about 170 kilometres an hour.

The Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) acting director Peter Korisa said the storm was likely to become the most devastating cyclone since Cyclone Uma in 1987.

He said officials were working out how to give appropriate refuge to more than 45,000 people in Port Vila.

"Public buildings like churches and the classrooms, school classrooms and community halls, in fact they don't really meet the standards. But we usually identify those with some basic facilities like toilets, and some buildings that can cater for such needs," said.

Mr Korisa said if Cyclone Pam caused damage beyond the capacity of Vanuatu government, it would need to appeal to international donors.

"There's no formal standard house here so I'm just imagining if this happens in Port Vila, it will be disastrous," he said.

Cyclone Pam brought heavy rain to Solomon Islands before heading south-east towards Vanuatu. - Photo: RNZ / Margaret Maealasia

A Fiji Meteorological Service forecaster, Stephen Meke, said small islands in eastern Solomon Islands were already being bombarded with rain.

In the next few days the storm would move south towards Vanuatu's capital, Port Vila.

"The cyclone is still intensifying. We are anticipating it to cross category five over the next 24 to 48 hours. It has been dumping a lot of rain and also some very destructive winds." Mr Meke said.

Fiji's Meteorological Service says winds of 167 kilometres have been reported at Pam's centre. Islands in the area have been warned to expect hurricane force winds of more than 116 kilometres an our.

Tropical cyclones can be hundreds of kilometers wide and can bring destructive high winds, torrential rain, storm surges and occasionally tornadoes. According to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, a category four cyclone involves maximum sustained wind speeds of 210 to 249 kilometres an our.

The Vanuatu Meteorological Service is briefing the public on the hour on the increasing strength of the cyclone. It had warned of "severe and damaging" winds in Port Vila on the Island of Efate and the southern part of Vanuatu.

The National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) in Vanuatu is scrambling to organise evacuation centres in anticipation of Tropical Cyclone Pam.

Mr Korisa said new settlements around Port Vila are at risk and officials are working on an evacuation plan.

"What we are doing ... we're trying to arrange the evacuation centres. We're talking with civil authorities, especially church organisations, schools and public buildings. We're trying to arrange if we can use these evacuation centres."

Fiji Airways has cancelled flights between Nadi and Vanuatu scheduled for Friday, the Fiji Times reports

Although Cyclone Pam is not expected to affect Fiji directly, it is predicted to bring heavy rain over the country with possibly strong winds, and the airline will continue to monitor the situation.

Neville Koop of Fiji's Nadraki weather service told Morning Report the cyclone would past just east of the Vanuatu chain and he thought it would get close enough to do real damage.

In March last year, Vanuatu was hit by Cyclone Lusi over two days, killing 10 people, damaging crops and infrastructure, flooding towns and contaminating the water supply.

Cyclone Pam expected to be Category 5 within 48 hours

Cyclone Pam is likely to hit the east of the country hardest when it reaches New Zealand in the early hours of Sunday morning, MetService says.

Radio NZ,

12 March, 2015, 13.38 

The category four storm is currently over the tropics, moving southwards towards Vanuatu.

MetService meteorologist Georgina Griffiths said the cyclone was expected to become a category five storm tomorrow, then weaken to category four by the time it reaches New Zealand.

Ms Griffiths said people would need to keep up with weather warnings, particularly on the East Coast.

She said Gisborne and northern Hawke's Bay were likely to get severe south-east gales and heavy rain.

MetService said there was some uncertainty as to the exact path the storm would take, and forecasters were keeping a close eye on it.

Gisborne Civil Defence: Cyclone Pam could be worse than Cyclone Bola

Gisborne Civil Defence said Cyclone Pam could be the worst storm in recorded history to hit New Zealand when it arrives on Sunday.

Gisborne Civil Defence spokesperson Richard Steele said forecasts out of the United States and Europe indicated Cyclone Pam could be worse than Cyclone Bola in the 1980s which killed three people and caused $82 million in damage.

Mr Steele said seas were expected to experience unprecedented storm surges.

"Seas are expected to be nothing like we have seen before with 6-8m storm surges and some more on top of that depending on the wind," he said.

Coastal erosion would probably be significant with the threat of state highway closures in several places.

People in coastal areas were advised to keep close eye on the sea, Mr Steele said.

"If travelling up the coast check road conditions before leaving, and travelling in general in exposed areas will be hazardous for several days," he said.

Coastal schools should be prepared for closure on Monday and city schools with rural bus students could be affected.

Freedom campers along the East Coast were being advised to move on.

Civil Defence said people should keep an ear on weather forecasts and keep up-to-date as large parts of the North Island could be hit by the cyclone.

Meanwhile, the start of the fifth leg of the Volvo Ocean race from Auckland has been delayed because of Cyclone Pam. Yachts were due to leave Auckand for Itajai in Brazil on Sunday but organisers said the earliest the boats would now depart was Monday afternoon.

Cyclone Pam civil defence information for Gisbourne

Civil Defence information on Cyclone Pam 12 March 1.30pm

This is the information we have to date: It will be the largest cyclone in our recorded history several magnitudes greater than Bola which was 988 down here, this could hit the 940’s. It is already Cat 4 and will get to Cat 5 which is as bad as they get:


• It is heading in a southerly direction


• Advice yesterday suggested that it would take a more easterly track, but this morning the models aren’t really telling us that – see picture attached. There are a couple of the models not as bad as the attached pic.


• It is fighting some upper level air trying to push it east but what isn’t evident is the weather system out east that will push it towards us at this stage we don’t know who will win


• Seas are expected to be nothing like we have seen before with 6-8m storm surges and some more on top of that depending on the wind


• Coastal erosion will probably be significant – with threats to the SH in several places, 


• Tolaga and Whangara to some extent but especially Anaura and Tokomaru Bay can expect some significant inundation, depending on the direction of the swells will dictate effects on Te Araroa and Hicks Bay


• We will start seeing the effects late Sunday afternoon and the sea and wind affects will go through most of next week

• Still too early to estimate rainfall


• Media should be telling people in coastal areas especially to keep close eye on the sea, everyone should be cleaning gutters, if travelling up the coast check road conditions before leaving and travelling in general in exposed areas will be hazardous for several days


• Coastal Civil Defence personnel on this list should make sure their residents are aware that Pam is likely to affect them


• Coastal schools at least should expect that closure on Monday is likely, city schools with rural bus students could be affected


• Anyone freedom camping on the coast should pack up and head for home.


We will keep you posted on any updates here and on our website http://bit.ly/1NMdJU0


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