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An update from Paul Beckwith on extreme weather patterns and the effects on winter sea ice
Climate System Disruption March 24, 2015
Examination
of weather patterns and huge temperature swings and effects on the
winter sea ice
It is a while since I have seen “Signs of Change”
Signs
Of Change The Past Few Weeks Or So March 2015
The
Brazilian drought has been made worse by the after effects of
deforestation, killing the sky rivers, which have dried out the
forest limiting it's ability to sequester carbon and generate
precipitation to feed the ground rivers in a never ending positive
feedback loop of fires and drought.
Losing 91,000 hectares in a
month,nearly double what we would normally expect in a year is the
kind of exponential increase we have been concerned about.
Add to
that the issue of the gulf stream stalling we can now see the effects
of abrupt climate change and the unraveling of our biosphere.
---Kevin Hester
Climate
Change Induced Drought and Fire at Critical Stage in Chile —
Construction of 12 Desalination Plants Underway
24
March, 2015
In
the National Forests of Chile, it’s been burning since February.
An
intense upshot of the stifling of water supplies through month after
month heat and lack of rainfall. A kind of intense onset, persistent
drought that has become all too common in a world in which
atmosphere, ice and ocean temperatures keep rocketing on to new
record highs.
Starting
February 17th, massive fires erupted, spreading swiftly through
Chile’s forested mountainsides and valleys, threatening protected
woods and endangered species. The fires have continued off and on now
for more than a month. Fueled by hot winds and a record drought that
has forced the nation to build 12 desalination plants in a desperate
effort to restore the country’s ebbing water supply.
(Side
by side frames of same region of Chile on February 17 [left frame]
and March 24 [right frame]. For reference, bottom edge of frame is
approximately 100 miles. Right frame is slightly off-set toward the
east. Image source: Lance-Modis.)
Reports
from BBC indicated
that today’s fires are burning in three protected national parks:
China Muerta National Reserve, Nalca Lolco National Reserve and
Conguillio National Park. The fires threaten ancient growth forest
that is the abode of the majestic Araucaria araucana trees. A kind of
pine that can live up to a thousand years. Over 4,500 hectares are
now burning and the smoke is plainly visible in the NASA satellite
shot (right frame in the image sequence above). Fully fifteen fire
brigades are involved in what is currently a massive firefighting
effort.
Overall,
the fires that have been raging for more than a month throughout
Chile haveconsumed
an exceptional 91,000 hectares –
nearly double the 59,000 hectare per year average over the last five
years. Years that themselves experienced increased heat, drought, and
burning.
This
extreme burning comes as Chile faces a ramping, multi-decadal water
shortage set off by human warming. Climate scientists there have
indicated a high risk of drastically increased drying throughout
Chile over the next 35 years through to 2050 due to climate change
related impacts.
According
to President Michele Bachelet the country’s current drought
situation is already at critical stages. Bachelet recently announced
millions of dollars in funds to drill for underground water and to
construct desalination plants to provide drinking water to fight
ramping drought conditions with the ugly prospect of more to come.
In a
report today from BBC,
Bachelet noted that the situation was now endemic and expected to
worsen:
“Faced with this critical situation, there is no choice but to assume that the lack of water resources is a reality that is here to stay and that puts at risk the development of important regions of our country.”
Though
climate change is expected to continue to ratchet down on drought
impacts to Chile — increasing heat, melting critical glacial ice,
and drying out forestlands — this year, at least, there appears to
be some hope for an end to the stifling heat and the ongoing fires.
Hints of the first rains of autumn have now begun to show up in
Central and Northern Chile.
But
by 2050 with the world expected to be between 1.5 and 2.5 degrees
Celsius hotter than 1880s averages, the autumn rains will have been
brutally beaten back — retreating further and further into fall. In
that time, the heat and dryness of spring and summer will come early
and the great glaciers upon which Chile depends so much for its water
will be but wan shadows of former grandeur. If they exist at all.
Links:
Hat
tip to Colorado Bob
Californian drought worst on record hitting farm production and the US economy
"We're starting to panic!"
Dairy farmer and president of the Californian Farmers Union Joaquin Cantente said the drought is all anyone can talk about.
Signs on the roadside cry out, "Save our family farm!"
Farmers are fighting for water in what is turning into the worst drought on record, with the lowest rainfall, dam storage and snowpack.
Even the groundwater is being overexploited, said Mr Cantente, with the water table dropping by about three meters......
Britain
set for HOTTEST Easter EVER as temperatures to rocket to 80F in
holiday heatwave
BRITAIN
could be about to roast in the HOTTEST Easter EVER with temperatures
rocketing into the 80s IN WEEKS.
GETTY/EXPRESS
16
March, 2015
The
ENTIRE country will bake in the fiercest April temperatures for years
out-scorching Spain, Greece and even North Africa, according to some
forecasts.
Early
long-range models show a freak set of conditions due to come into
play at the start of next month will trigger the long-awaited
heatwave.
Thermometers
are expected to tip the 80F mark in time for Easter which is on
course to beat the historic scorchers of 1984 and 2011.
An
unusually wavy jet stream will drag swathes of scorching air in from
the Continent while high pressure will see Britain bask in blue skies
and sunshine.
The
sizzling prediction ties in with suggestions this summer is on course
to be a super-scorcher putting even The Great Heatwave of 1906 in the
shade.
Blistering
heat lasted a week and with the mercury rocketing past 90F for four
days it is considered the severest of the 20th century.
Experts
say things will start to heat up in just a few weeks thanks to the
“wildly deviating” jet stream and warmer ocean temperatures in
the Pacific.
Scientists
have confirmed an El Nino phenomenon, linked to rising global
temperatures, has officially started.
The
last one was in 2010 although after the summer it led to an
exceptionally cold winter that year.
El
Nino also brings a greater risk of typhoons in the tropical
north-west Pacific, including China and south-east Asia, and drought
in western parts of the United States.
It
will come as a relief to many as Britain wraps up for another cold
spell with sub-zero temperatures and even snow forecast over the
coming days.
The
sudden chill is down to ‘Polar Continental’ air about to sweep
across the country from Siberia.
A
similar weather pattern triggered an exceptionally cold snap during
the winter of 2010 when temperatures dropped to -21.3C in Scotland.
The
change will come as a shock to the system for many who just last
weekend were enjoying highs close to 18C (64F).
It
will be a different picture after today with icy winds from Russia
making it feel close to -6C (21F) in the north – colder than
Moscow.
Piers
Corbyn, forecaster for WeatherAction, is predicting huge temperature
swings over the next few weeks.
He
said: “There will be big variations due to the wildly deviating jet
stream, so there will be periods of extremely cold weather followed
by unusually hot.
“The
jet is meandering bringing air in from northern Europe and the Arctic
region and then from Spain, switching between bitter cold and warm
through spring.”
Sunny
forecasts have already triggered a flurry of bets on super-hot
weather arriving before the start of summer.
Coral
has slashed the odds on the hottest Easter on record from 10/1 to 6/1
with the hottest ever March at 10/1.
Spokeswoman
Nicola McGeady said: "The latest gamble suggests punters are
putting all their eggs in one basket and backing this Easter to be
the hottest on record following the recent heatwave in Britain.”
The
Met Office’s three-month outlook predicts a strong likelihood of
above-average temperatures until the end of May.
It
states there are signals of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO) which will bring warm winds in from the west.
A
spokesman said: “Overall this pattern typically brings near to
above-average temperatures.”
The
best of the weather is likely to begin the south with some forecast
models showing above-average temperatures right through the summer.
Long-range
predictions show temperatures between one and two degrees C above the
norm right through until September.
However
not all forecasters agree with the roasting predictions with some
still backing an average spring to come.
James
Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “We will gradually see
a return to some much colder and more wintry conditions as we
progress towards the second half of March.
“As
we progress into this weekend and the early part of next week much
colder air will approach us from the east and leave us in a much
colder feeling easterly flow.
“Throughout
next next week there is the potential for some more notable and
widespread snow showers across the country.
“However,
warmer weather is around the corner, and parts of the UK can expect
some widespread warm temperatures and pleasant weather throughout
May.”
Chris
Burton, forecaster for The Weather Network, warned not to put the
brollies away just yet with plenty more rain on the way.
He
also warned of a chilly weekend to come with plunging temperatures
making it feel “more like winter” than early spring.
He
said: “As we go through Friday and into the weekend, a significant
change in our weather will occur as chilly easterly winds develop.
“These
winds will drag in bitterly cold air from eastern Europe, with
temperatures struggling to rise much above 4-7C by Sunday.
“The
strong easterly winds will also drag in a lot of cloud and some
patchy drizzle, making it feel more like mid-winter than early
spring.
“Western
areas will see the best of any sunshine this weekend, although this
would bring the risk of overnight frosts.
“Much
of Europe is expected to have a warmer spring than usual, but for the
UK, temperatures are forecast to be around average as a whole with
temperatures flipping between mild and cold.
“April
showers are often a key feature of spring weather and that’s
expected to be the case this year.”
Temperatures
soared to 81F in 2011 and 74F in London during the Easter of 1984
with this year on course to beat both.
If
the sunnier predictions come to fruition, Britons could be about to
bake in the hottest month of April since records began in 1910.
Climate change blamed as erratic downpours hit Pakistan’s harvests
Late
rains were unusually heavy this year, say local farmers, affecting
winter crops of wheat, oilseed and potato
(Pic: Flickr/Umer Malik)
23
March, 2015
Anxious
farmers in Pakistan waited for weeks for the rains to arrive – but
when the skies finally opened, the downpour was so intense it
destroyed crops and put the harvest in jeopardy.
“We
weather scientists are really in shock, and so are farmers, who have
suffered economic losses due to crop damage,” says Muzammil
Hussain, a weather forecasting scientist at the Pakistan
Meteorological Department (PMD).
“The
wind from the southeast has carried moisture from the Arabian Sea.
Normally, the northeast wind brings rain during winter, and the
southeast wind brings monsoon rains in summer. But the pattern has
changed this year because of what is believed to be global warming.”
This
year, the rains arrived more than three weeks late and were unusually
heavy, accompanied by violent hailstorms. Along with the rains,
temperatures also dropped.
Ibrahim
Mughal, chairman of the Pakistan
Agri Forum,
says excessive moisture due to heavy bouts of late rain is likely to
lead to outbreaks of fungus on crops, and production could be halved.
“If
the rains come a month ahead of the harvesting time [April to
mid-May], it is always disastrous,” he says. “It can hit
production for a crop such as wheat by between 20% and 30%, and if
the rain is accompanied by hailstorms and winds then the losses can
escalate to more than 50%.”
Arif
Mahmood, a former director general at PMD, says the onset of winter
across much of Pakistan is being delayed by two to three days every
year, and there is an urgent need for farmers to adapt to such
changes.
“Over
recent years, winter has been delayed by 25 to 30 days, and also the
intensity of the cold has increased, which has affected almost every
field of life − from agriculture to urban life.”
This
year has also been marked by abrupt changes in temperature. Ghulam
Rasul, a senior scientist at PMD, says big swings in temperature are
likely to add to the problems being faced by millions of farmers in
Pakistan.
“The
average temperature during the first two weeks [of March] was between
11 and 13 degrees Celsius, but now it’s on a continuous upward
trend and has reached 26˚C over the space of two days,” he
reports.
“The
winter rains in the north and central area of Pakistan, and the
sudden rise and fall in temperature, are related to climate change.”
Serious
damage
Similar
storms and late winter rains have also caused serious damage across
large areas of northern India.
The
states of Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra – the two most populous
states in the country – have been particularly badly hit.
In
Maharashtra, snow and landslides have blocked roads and cut off towns
and villages.
In
Uttar Pradesh, there are fears that more than 50% of the wheat crop
has been lost in the eastern part of the state.
Recent
rains and hailstorm in different parts of the country had damaged
Rabi crops in about 181 lakh hectares of land across 13 states during
February 28-March 16 with UP and Rajasthan facing the brunt.
The
affected cultivable land is huge if one looks at the total cultivable
area (600 lakh hectare) in the current Rabi season. The wheat crop
faced the maximum damage due to unseasonal rains.
About
12.1 million hectares of the 30.6 million hectares of wheat planted
was damaged from the hail and rain on 1 March to 18 March
Pulses
(aka. dal) form the basis of a vegetarian diet in India, especially
for the poor
Pulses
yield in India is likely to decline this year on reports of crop
damage in some pockets of major producing states like Rajasthan and
Madhya Pradesh.
Data
compiled by the Ministry of Agriculture show a gradual increase in
India's pulses yield over the last few years due to adequate soil
moisture and also good post harvest crop care. From the level of 691
kgs a ha in 2010-11, the yield has risen to 781 kgs / ha in 2013-14.
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