Sunday, 15 February 2015

Politics in Kiev - a threat of martial law

What is interesting about this article is that for the first time in Kiev news of the Debaltsevo cauldron (which we've know about for week) is finally coming out.

The Kyiv Post is painting the emergency as being part of the "military emergency" involving yet another "Russian invasion"

I suspect it has more to do with Petro Poroshenko not having any control over the situation any more and trying to fend off a coup by elements more radical than him.

The Right Sector has stated it won't observe any ceasefire and they are almost certainly behind the violation just a few hours ago.

Meanwhile the western media which hasn't reported on ANY of this is probably waiting to see how to react.

Poroshenko will impose martial law if cease-fire fails
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said martial law will be introduced throughout Ukraine if the cease-fire fails to start at midnight tonight, as agreed in Minsk, Belarus, on Feb. 12.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko speaks during a joint press conference with President of the European Council Donald Tusk during a European Union summit at the EU Headquarters in Brussels on Feb. 12. 

14 February, 2015

Even before Minsk... I warned that we will have to, if there is no peace, take a very difficult but necessary decision to introduce martial law," Poroshenko said today. “I stress once again that in this case the martial law will be introduced not just in Donetsk and Luhansk, but in the whole country."


Introduction of martial law means that Ukraine's army gets to control the streets and impose curfews, ban parties and other organizations, as well as mass gatherings, conduct searches and introduce censorship. It's also allowed to claim property of businesses and private individual if needed.

Ukraine's army said there has been no sign that the cease-fire is going to start in the east. Moreover, fights intensified in some areas, most notably close to Debaltseve, a strategic railroad junction between Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. 


Yuriy Butusov, a Ukrainian journalist and editor of censor.net news portal, who covers the war in the east, wrote on his Facebook page that Debaltseve was surrounded by separatists, trapping thousands of servicemen.


Andriy Lysenko, a government military spokesman, did not confirm the information, but said there was “heavy fighting" close to Debaltseve, and the pro-Russian separatists gained territory in the area. “The terrorists continue to move to Ukraine's territory additional manpower and stock military equipment," Lysenko said.

He also said seven Ukrainian servicemen were killed in attacks and 23 were wounded in 24 hours. He also claimed that 100 "terrorists" had been killed, but offered no verifying information in his daily briefing on Feb. 14.

Poroshenko also said more military gear was being moved to the area.

"Our partners and friends, relying on their own intelligence, confirm not only the presence of Russian tanks, rocket launchers, armored personnel carriers in the vicinity of Debaltseve and in other areas, but they also confirm the concentration of new batches of Russian military equipment at the border, which is prepared for the invasion of our homeland through the parts of the border which we do not control yet," he said during a ceremony of transfer of armored vehicles and other equipment to border guard in Kyiv today.

The U.S. Embassy in Russia tweeted a satellite image of heavy artillery stationed in the area, pointing a finger to the Russian army for setting it up.


Pro-Russian separatists have a bigger army now (tanks, armored personnel vehicles, heavy artillery, missiles) than some countries in NATO and Europe," the embassy tweeted.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's monitoring mission said in its latest report that fighting also continued on the day cease-fire agreements were signed. There were a total of 88 attacks recorded by the mission in the 24 hours that ended at 6 p.m. on Feb. 12.

Although the number was down from the previous recorded cycle, it was still about four times the typical number of attacks at the beginning of the year. Also, the report said that “almost all violations have been by multiple launch rocket systems, heavy artillery and mortars, with the areas most affected concentrated in Debaltseve (55 kilometers north of Donetsk, government-controlled) and Novoazovsk (120km south-east of Donetsk, separatist- controlled)."

In the meantime, leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic Oleksandr Zakharchenko said that his troops would keep on fighting around Debaltseve because it was not a part of the Minsk peace deal. Debaltseve is a strategic railway junction on the border of Lunahsk and Donetsk oblasts.

Moreover, the separatist leader dismissed the Minsk peace deal as too vague and not good enough for his so-called republic.

All we see so far is vague formulations and various interpretations. If there is no constructive document, it won't lead to anything good," Zakharchenko was quoted by Interfax-Uktaine news agency as saying.

If you understand Russian -



Minsk Refusal? Right Sector leader rejects Ukraine peace deal




The head of Ukraine's militarised radical Right Sector group says they will not recognise the truce agreed in Minsk ... a deal made during top-level negotiations between Moscow, Kiev, Berlin and Paris. RT's Murad Gazdiev, in Donetsk, east Ukraine has more.

As for the US ambassador's new 'Russian invasion', here RT discusses the latest пallegations

Russia shrugs off US envoy’s ‘evidence’ of Russian troops in Ukraine


Image from Geoffrey Pyatt's Twitter account. Comment says: "1/3 Debaltseve. We are confident these are Russian military, not separatist, systems"

RT,
14 February, 2015

The Russian Ministry of Defense has branded new claims by the US ambassador to Ukraine as “crystal ball gazing.” The ambassador tweeted pictures of what he said were Russian armed forces in Debaltsevo, eastern Ukraine.

On Saturday, the US ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt, posted on Twitter what he says are satellite photos proving there are Russian artillery systems stationed near the town of Lomuvatka, about 20 kilometers northeast of Debaltsevo. The images could not be immediately verified.
Under the tweet, he said: “We are confident these are Russia military, not separatist systems.” The photographs were commissioned by the private Digital Globe satellite company.

View image on Twitter
1/3 Debaltseve. We are confident these are Russian military, not separatist, systems

We have failed to understand how those grainy dark patches in the photos published by US Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt on his Twitter feed could prove anything,” Major General Igor Konashenkov, a spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, told journalists later in the day.



View image on Twitter
2/3 Russian military also has air defense systems deployed near Debaltseve.

Unlike the American intelligence services, Russia’s military [has] never considered crystal ball gazing a good way to check and confirm data.”
Konashenkov also disregarded an earlier allegation by State Department spokeswoman Jennifer Psaki, saying he has not heard “anything new.”

View image on Twitter
3/3 Russian units along the border are preparing a large shipment of supplies to "seps" fighting in eastern Ukraine

On Friday, Psaki declared that in addition to the artillery systems and multiple rocket launchers, Russia had also deployed air defense systems to the area near the surrounded railway hub.
This is clearly not in the spirit of this week's agreement. All parties must show complete restraint in the run up to Sunday,” Psaki told reporters.


In late July, the Russian Ministry of Defense spoke out against images posted by Pyatt on his Twitter account, which alleged that Ukraine had been shelled from Russian territory.
These materials were posted to Twitter not by accident, as their authenticity is impossible to prove – due to the absence of the attribution to the exact area, and an extremely low resolution. Let alone using them as ‘photographic evidence,’” Konashenkov said at the time.


It’s no secret to anyone that fakes like this are made by a group of US counselors staying in the Kiev building of the Security Council, led by General Randy Kee,” he noted.

Konashenkov branded the scheme “an informational merry-go-round.” The general outlined the cycle as follows: US counselors in Kiev feed false information to the Ukrainian media, and the news is then presented as fact by official Washington representatives.

Also last year, Pyatt was found guilty of posting fake images of US drills and tanks taking part in exercises, after internet users immediately noticed the photographs had been published at a much earlier date.



Zakharchenko's final warning to Poroshenko




2/14/2015

Aleksandr Zakharchenko on Minsk-2

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

I said in Minsk and am saying right now that the DPR territory includes the entire Donetsk Region. If our demands for a de-facto independence are not met, we shall claim the entire Donetsk Region. How we will obtain it does not matter to us. If we can’t do it through the political process, we have already shown that we can do it through other means.”

J.Hawk’s Comment: Note that Zakharchenko is talking about a “de-facto” independence, which takes a fair amount of pressure off Poroshenko, because all Ukraine’s president need to do is simply leave Novorossia alone while continuing to engage in belligerent rhetoric. Zakharchenko is also re-emphasizing This Is It. Either Minsk-2 sticks, or there isn’t going to be a Minsk-3. These are not empty words—Novorossia’s army has been toying with the UAF so as to allow Poroshenko a face-saving way out. It is obvious enough which side has the advantage and initiative on the battlefield. The battle for Logvinovo was one that the UAF simply could not afford to lose, and they threw the best they had (they also threw Semenchenko, but that’s another matter) at Novorossia’s forces there and…lost. Once the attempt to relieve the Debaltsevo pocket had failed, it became abundantly clear who can dictate facts on the ground. Should Poroshenko fail to act in a responsible fashion yet again, he will not be given a face-saving way out the next time

Сообщение от Александра Захарченко.

"Я в Минске говорил и сейчас говорю, что территория ДНР — это территория Донецкой области. Если не будут выполнены наши требования о фактической независимости, мы заявим, что вся территория Донецкой области наша. Каким путем ее забирать, все равно. Если не получится политическим, мы показали, что можно и по-другому."

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